Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 66%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$504.9

Smart Money Signal

22 of 33 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,036

Combined PnL+$348.16

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,901

Combined PnL-$853.06

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 72.1¢	$801.45	$680.92	-$120.53	41% 301-442 (743)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 74.4¢	$632.13	$633.03	+$0.9	24% 348-1085 (1433)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.7¢	$572.57	$586.08	+$13.51	98% 1594-33 (1627)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 59.4¢	$521.41	$566.03	+$47.59	45% 426-520 (946)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 70.9¢	$471.71	$504.5	+$32.79	52% 3572-3348 (6920)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 68.1¢	$462.24	$431.06	-$31.17	51% 1054-1033 (2087)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.1¢	$293.74	$431.06	+$137.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.5¢	$168.5	—	-$168.5
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$353.5	$400	+$46.5	39% 493-763 (1256)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$230	$400	+$170
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.8¢	$123.5	—	-$123.5
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 61.6¢	$352.12	$374.79	+$22.67	52% 351-330 (681)
ST stepahead	Upavg 71.1¢	$291.09	$306.53	+$15.44	54% 3668-3086 (6754)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 35.3¢	$463.03	—	-$432.17	58% 436-310 (746)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$246.11	$206.2	-$39.91	60% 428-281 (709)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.5¢	$141.18	$206.2	+$65.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.2¢	$104.93	—	-$104.93
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 63.6¢	$189.7	$217.81	+$28.11	32% 325-698 (1023)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 49.1¢	$177.72	$361.72	+$184	46% 809-946 (1755)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 63.7¢	$215.72	$155.19	-$15.93	49% 3270-3379 (6649)
PB PBot-5	Upavg 50.9¢	$96.45	$164	+$67.55	47% 485-549 (1034)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 69.4¢	$98.35	$100	+$1.65	53% 4074-3548 (7622)
OhioAI	Upavg 65.2¢	$111.82	$95.52	-$12.22	47% 266-299 (565)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 31¢	$208.69	—	-$169.31	41% 324-461 (785)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 53.8¢	$67.17	$86.19	+$19.03	44% 821-1039 (1860)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 64.7¢	$77.5	$80.43	+$2.93	49% 399-408 (807)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.7¢	$52	$80.43	+$28.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.8¢	$25.5	—	-$25.5
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 73.3¢	$33.96	$46.3	+$12.34	40% 536-816 (1352)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 51¢	$38.25	$75	+$36.75	50% 3395-3345 (6740)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 34¢	$51	—	-$51	48% 838-904 (1742)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$54	—	-$54	74% 622-215 (837)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 69.3¢	$31.6	$30	-$1.6	53% 938-848 (1786)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$801.45

Value

$680.92

PnL

-$120.53

Record

41%

301-442 (743)

ply-pm0

Invested

$632.13

Value

$633.03

PnL

+$0.9

Record

24%

348-1085 (1433)

hoodquant

Invested

$572.57

Value

$586.08

PnL

+$13.51

Record

98%

1594-33 (1627)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$521.41

Value

$566.03

PnL

+$47.59

Record

45%

426-520 (946)

blue.birds

Invested

$471.71

Value

$504.5

PnL

+$32.79

Record

52%

3572-3348 (6920)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$462.24

Value

$431.06

PnL

-$31.17

Record

51%

1054-1033 (2087)

Both legs:

Up$293.7468.1¢+$137.32

Down$168.536.5¢-$168.5

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$353.5

Value

$400

PnL

+$46.5

Record

39%

493-763 (1256)

Both legs:

Up$23057.5¢+$170

Down$123.535.8¢-$123.5

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$352.12

Value

$374.79

PnL

+$22.67

Record

52%

351-330 (681)

stepahead

Invested

$291.09

Value

$306.53

PnL

+$15.44

Record

54%

3668-3086 (6754)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$463.03

Value

—

PnL

-$432.17

Record

58%

436-310 (746)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$246.11

Value

$206.2

PnL

-$39.91

Record

60%

428-281 (709)

Both legs:

Up$141.1868.5¢+$65.02

Down$104.9333.2¢-$104.93

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$189.7

Value

$217.81

PnL

+$28.11

Record

32%

325-698 (1023)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$177.72

Value

$361.72

PnL

+$184

Record

46%

809-946 (1755)

asdcaxz

Invested

$215.72

Value

$155.19

PnL

-$15.93

Record

49%

3270-3379 (6649)

PBot-5

Invested

$96.45

Value

$164

PnL

+$67.55

Record

47%

485-549 (1034)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$98.35

Value

$100

PnL

+$1.65

Record

53%

4074-3548 (7622)

OhioAI

Invested

$111.82

Value

$95.52

PnL

-$12.22

Record

47%

266-299 (565)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$208.69

Value

—

PnL

-$169.31

Record

41%

324-461 (785)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$67.17

Value

$86.19

PnL

+$19.03

Record

44%

821-1039 (1860)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$77.5

Value

$80.43

PnL

+$2.93

Record

49%

399-408 (807)

Both legs:

Up$5264.7¢+$28.43

Down$25.536.8¢-$25.5

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$33.96

Value

$46.3

PnL

+$12.34

Record

40%

536-816 (1352)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$38.25

Value

$75

PnL

+$36.75

Record

50%

3395-3345 (6740)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51

Value

—

PnL

-$51

Record

48%

838-904 (1742)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$54

Value

—

PnL

-$54

Record

74%

622-215 (837)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$31.6

Value

$30

PnL

-$1.6

Record

53%

938-848 (1786)

Smart Money Signal

22 of 33 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd33baf17...3d1623

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794404700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $680.92

-$120.53

ply-pm0

Up — $633.03

+$0.9

hoodquant

Up — $586.08

+$13.51

CrouchPredictions

Up — $566.03

+$47.59

blue.birds

Up — $504.5

+$32.79

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Up — $374.79

+$22.67

stepahead

Up — $306.53

Bonereaper

Down — $0