Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Up 64%
1 arb excluded
$3.9K
-$204.06
Smart Money Signal
21 of 33 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $484.06 | $489.68 | +$5.62 | 98% 1594-33 (1627) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 87¢ | $390.17 | $400.52 | +$10.35 | 51% 1054-1033 (2087) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 86¢ | $369.66 | $413.41 | +$43.76 | 45% 534-658 (1192) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 84¢ | $315.59 | $319.25 | +$3.66 | 53% 938-848 (1786) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 90¢ | $353.12 | $290.83 | -$34.4 | 52% 3572-3348 (6920) |
AL almach | Upavg 93¢ | $358.34 | $277.14 | -$81.19 | 45% 526-642 (1168) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 77.7¢ | $213.27 | $237.12 | +$23.86 | 60% 428-281 (709) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 71.9¢ | $226.57 | $228.4 | +$1.83 | 54% 3668-3086 (6754) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 77.1¢ | $177.84 | $184.94 | +$7.1 | 41% 301-442 (743) |
BO bosona | Upavg 86¢ | $171.28 | $196.15 | +$24.87 | 50% 3755-3780 (7535) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 51.5¢ | $151.92 | $295 | +$143.08 | 46% 809-946 (1755) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 79.9¢ | $121.43 | $128.22 | +$6.79 | 32% 325-698 (1023) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 36.1¢ | $177.19 | $25.34 | -$151.85 | 45% 426-520 (946) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.1¢ | $161.09 | — | -$161.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.5¢ | $16.1 | $25.34 | +$9.24 | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 34.1¢ | $134.83 | — | -$95.52 | 58% 436-310 (746) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 88.5¢ | $113.4 | $80 | -$32.08 | 41% 324-461 (785) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 96¢ | $130.52 | $72.12 | -$58.4 | 51% 344-324 (668) |
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.1¢ | $99.44 | — | -$99.44 | 24% 348-1085 (1433) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 92.8¢ | $43.74 | $47.16 | +$3.42 | 65% 1531-815 (2346) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 90.8¢ | $57.38 | $42.4 | -$14.98 | 44% 821-1039 (1860) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 67.8¢ | $38.08 | $34.5 | -$3.58 | 47% 266-299 (565) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 82.9¢ | $35.15 | $40.04 | +$4.89 | 49% 399-408 (807) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $14.51 | $24.59 | +$10.08 | 38% 603-967 (1570) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $20.73 | $27.64 | +$6.91 | 50% 3395-3345 (6740) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.4¢ | $13.73 | — | -$13.73 | 53% 4074-3548 (7622) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 7.8¢ | $23.76 | — | -$23.76 | 37% 374-624 (998) |
Invested
$484.06
Value
$489.68
PnL
+$5.62
Record
98%
1594-33 (1627)
Invested
$390.17
Value
$400.52
PnL
+$10.35
Record
51%
1054-1033 (2087)
Invested
$369.66
Value
$413.41
PnL
+$43.76
Record
45%
534-658 (1192)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$315.59
Value
$319.25
PnL
+$3.66
Record
53%
938-848 (1786)
Invested
$353.12
Value
$290.83
PnL
-$34.4
Record
52%
3572-3348 (6920)
Invested
$358.34
Value
$277.14
PnL
-$81.19
Record
45%
526-642 (1168)
Invested
$213.27
Value
$237.12
PnL
+$23.86
Record
60%
428-281 (709)
Invested
$226.57
Value
$228.4
PnL
+$1.83
Record
54%
3668-3086 (6754)
Invested
$177.84
Value
$184.94
PnL
+$7.1
Record
41%
301-442 (743)
Invested
$171.28
Value
$196.15
PnL
+$24.87
Record
50%
3755-3780 (7535)
Invested
$151.92
Value
$295
PnL
+$143.08
Record
46%
809-946 (1755)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$121.43
Value
$128.22
PnL
+$6.79
Record
32%
325-698 (1023)
Invested
$177.19
Value
$25.34
PnL
-$151.85
Record
45%
426-520 (946)
Both legs:
Invested
$134.83
Value
—
PnL
-$95.52
Record
58%
436-310 (746)
Invested
$113.4
Value
$80
PnL
-$32.08
Record
41%
324-461 (785)
Invested
$130.52
Value
$72.12
PnL
-$58.4
Record
51%
344-324 (668)
Invested
$99.44
Value
—
PnL
-$99.44
Record
24%
348-1085 (1433)
Invested
$43.74
Value
$47.16
PnL
+$3.42
Record
65%
1531-815 (2346)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$57.38
Value
$42.4
PnL
-$14.98
Record
44%
821-1039 (1860)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$38.08
Value
$34.5
PnL
-$3.58
Record
47%
266-299 (565)
Invested
$35.15
Value
$40.04
PnL
+$4.89
Record
49%
399-408 (807)
Invested
$14.51
Value
$24.59
PnL
+$10.08
Record
38%
603-967 (1570)
Invested
$20.73
Value
$27.64
PnL
+$6.91
Record
50%
3395-3345 (6740)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$13.73
Value
—
PnL
-$13.73
Record
53%
4074-3548 (7622)
Invested
$23.76
Value
—
PnL
-$23.76
Record
37%
374-624 (998)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $489.68
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $400.52
mo-money
Up — $413.41
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $319.25
blue.birds
Up — $290.83
almach
Up — $277.14
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $237.12
stepahead
Up — $228.4
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $184.94
bosona
Up — $196.15