Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Down 41%
3 arb excluded
$11.5K
$-6.9K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 37 top traders (41%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | +$47.12 | 46% 497-585 (1082) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$17.52 | 98% 1568-33 (1601) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 55.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$330.06 | 58% 428-305 (733) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 50.8¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 40% 296-435 (731) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 64.7¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.2K | 52% 3556-3327 (6883) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 62.5¢ | $939.86 | — | -$939.86 | 45% 417-512 (929) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 40.7¢ | $569 | $725.36 | +$156.36 | 24% 339-1081 (1420) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 71.6¢ | $908.83 | — | -$889.03 | 54% 3659-3078 (6737) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 53.4¢ | $499.19 | — | -$471.99 | 41% 320-454 (774) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 68.7¢ | $861.55 | — | -$861.55 | 39% 484-758 (1242) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 51.5¢ | $411.07 | — | -$396.35 | 51% 1031-992 (2023) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 72.6¢ | $576.93 | $446.62 | -$130.31 | 51% 343-326 (669) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $375.42 | $418.58 | +$43.16 | 52% 340-317 (657) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 48.2¢ | $311.27 | $393.98 | +$104.91 | 32% 319-692 (1011) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 61.2¢ | $448.34 | $368.68 | -$79.66 | 60% 419-277 (696) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 71.4¢ | $257.69 | — | -$257.69 | 50% 3744-3775 (7519) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $257.19 | $299.37 | +$42.18 | 53% 4069-3543 (7612) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.2¢ | $123.25 | $299.37 | +$176.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52¢ | $133.94 | — | -$133.94 | |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 40.3¢ | $213.15 | $289.65 | +$76.49 | 49% 3249-3358 (6607) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.3¢ | $116.82 | $289.65 | +$172.82 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.8¢ | $96.33 | — | -$96.33 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 73.6¢ | $468.33 | — | -$468.33 | 45% 523-652 (1175) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 78¢ | $298.19 | $254.73 | -$33.52 | 61% 1710-1077 (2787) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 13.7¢ | $25.85 | $188.88 | +$163.03 | 65% 1505-799 (2304) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.1¢ | $187.8 | $156 | -$31.8 | 46% 799-931 (1730) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.1¢ | $109.8 | — | -$109.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $78 | $156 | +$78 | |
PB PBot-5CTR | Upavg 47.5¢ | $205.04 | — | -$161.54 | 47% 481-538 (1019) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 47.4¢ | $155.28 | $154.53 | +$18.56 | 47% 257-295 (552) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 63.9¢ | $173.64 | — | -$145.2 | 49% 389-405 (794) |
Invested
$4,664.49
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$47.12
Record
46%
497-585 (1082)
Invested
$1,734.48
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$17.52
Record
98%
1568-33 (1601)
Invested
$1,010.32
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$330.06
Record
58%
428-305 (733)
Invested
$1,187.42
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
40%
296-435 (731)
Invested
$1,255.24
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
52%
3556-3327 (6883)
Invested
$939.86
Value
—
PnL
-$939.86
Record
45%
417-512 (929)
Invested
$569
Value
$725.36
PnL
+$156.36
Record
24%
339-1081 (1420)
Invested
$908.83
Value
—
PnL
-$889.03
Record
54%
3659-3078 (6737)
Invested
$499.19
Value
—
PnL
-$471.99
Record
41%
320-454 (774)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$861.55
Value
—
PnL
-$861.55
Record
39%
484-758 (1242)
Invested
$411.07
Value
—
PnL
-$396.35
Record
51%
1031-992 (2023)
Invested
$576.93
Value
$446.62
PnL
-$130.31
Record
51%
343-326 (669)
Invested
$375.42
Value
$418.58
PnL
+$43.16
Record
52%
340-317 (657)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$311.27
Value
$393.98
PnL
+$104.91
Record
32%
319-692 (1011)
Invested
$448.34
Value
$368.68
PnL
-$79.66
Record
60%
419-277 (696)
Invested
$257.69
Value
—
PnL
-$257.69
Record
50%
3744-3775 (7519)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$257.19
Value
$299.37
PnL
+$42.18
Record
53%
4069-3543 (7612)
Both legs:
Invested
$213.15
Value
$289.65
PnL
+$76.49
Record
49%
3249-3358 (6607)
Both legs:
Invested
$468.33
Value
—
PnL
-$468.33
Record
45%
523-652 (1175)
Invested
$298.19
Value
$254.73
PnL
-$33.52
Record
61%
1710-1077 (2787)
Invested
$25.85
Value
$188.88
PnL
+$163.03
Record
65%
1505-799 (2304)
Invested
$187.8
Value
$156
PnL
-$31.8
Record
46%
799-931 (1730)
Both legs:
Invested
$205.04
Value
—
PnL
-$161.54
Record
47%
481-538 (1019)
OhioAIInvested
$155.28
Value
$154.53
PnL
+$18.56
Record
47%
257-295 (552)
Invested
$173.64
Value
—
PnL
-$145.2
Record
49%
389-405 (794)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $4.7K
hoodquant
Down — $1.8K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.3K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $725.36
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0