Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 50%
2 arb excluded
$4.3K
$-1.8K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 30 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 95.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$32.1 | 58% 428-305 (733) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Downavg 47.4¢ | $474.1 | — | -$474.1 | 48% 1299-1404 (2703) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 76.8¢ | $540.78 | $463.31 | -$77.47 | 40% 296-435 (731) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 98¢ | $642.5 | $409.89 | -$232.61 | 45% 523-652 (1175) |
AL almach | Upavg 98¢ | $383.21 | $318.64 | -$64.57 | 45% 514-636 (1150) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 73.8¢ | $354.71 | $316.01 | -$20.43 | 52% 3556-3327 (6883) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 66.2¢ | $345.1 | $300.63 | -$44.48 | 54% 3659-3078 (6737) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 39.3¢ | $226.1 | — | -$226.1 | 50% 3744-3775 (7519) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 98¢ | $214.62 | $169 | -$45.62 | 51% 343-326 (669) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 76.4¢ | $191.49 | $147.01 | -$44.48 | 45% 417-512 (929) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 84.1¢ | $157.89 | $145.05 | -$12.84 | 60% 419-277 (696) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 80.2¢ | $133.32 | $119.97 | -$13.35 | 32% 319-692 (1011) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 84.1¢ | $139.43 | $119.28 | -$20.15 | 24% 339-1081 (1420) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 87¢ | $117.85 | $100 | -$17.85 | 53% 923-832 (1755) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $95 | — | -$95 | 52% 340-317 (657) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 72.3¢ | $112.89 | $93 | -$19.89 | 51% 1031-992 (2023) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $86.83 | $83 | -$3.83 | 61% 1710-1077 (2787) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 32.1¢ | $97.29 | $40 | -$57.29 | 41% 320-454 (774) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.1¢ | $66.26 | — | -$66.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.6¢ | $31.04 | $40 | +$8.96 | |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 39.2¢ | $142.78 | — | -$142.78 | 39% 484-758 (1242) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 22.8¢ | $54.04 | $41.46 | -$12.58 | 44% 812-1016 (1828) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.8¢ | $25.23 | $41.46 | +$16.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.8¢ | $28.81 | — | -$28.81 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 27.4¢ | $57.61 | — | -$57.61 | 46% 799-931 (1730) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $42.39 | — | -$42.39 | 50% 3388-3341 (6729) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 88.6¢ | $38.59 | $35 | -$3.59 | 53% 4069-3543 (7612) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $18.5 | — | -$18.5 | 49% 3249-3358 (6607) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.3¢ | $17.67 | — | -$17.67 | 38% 592-951 (1543) |
Invested
$1,457.14
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$32.1
Record
58%
428-305 (733)
Invested
$474.1
Value
—
PnL
-$474.1
Record
48%
1299-1404 (2703)
Invested
$540.78
Value
$463.31
PnL
-$77.47
Record
40%
296-435 (731)
Invested
$642.5
Value
$409.89
PnL
-$232.61
Record
45%
523-652 (1175)
Invested
$383.21
Value
$318.64
PnL
-$64.57
Record
45%
514-636 (1150)
Invested
$354.71
Value
$316.01
PnL
-$20.43
Record
52%
3556-3327 (6883)
Invested
$345.1
Value
$300.63
PnL
-$44.48
Record
54%
3659-3078 (6737)
Invested
$226.1
Value
—
PnL
-$226.1
Record
50%
3744-3775 (7519)
Invested
$214.62
Value
$169
PnL
-$45.62
Record
51%
343-326 (669)
Invested
$191.49
Value
$147.01
PnL
-$44.48
Record
45%
417-512 (929)
Invested
$157.89
Value
$145.05
PnL
-$12.84
Record
60%
419-277 (696)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$133.32
Value
$119.97
PnL
-$13.35
Record
32%
319-692 (1011)
Invested
$139.43
Value
$119.28
PnL
-$20.15
Record
24%
339-1081 (1420)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$117.85
Value
$100
PnL
-$17.85
Record
53%
923-832 (1755)
Invested
$95
Value
—
PnL
-$95
Record
52%
340-317 (657)
Invested
$112.89
Value
$93
PnL
-$19.89
Record
51%
1031-992 (2023)
Invested
$86.83
Value
$83
PnL
-$3.83
Record
61%
1710-1077 (2787)
Invested
$97.29
Value
$40
PnL
-$57.29
Record
41%
320-454 (774)
Both legs:
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$142.78
Value
—
PnL
-$142.78
Record
39%
484-758 (1242)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$54.04
Value
$41.46
PnL
-$12.58
Record
44%
812-1016 (1828)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.61
Value
—
PnL
-$57.61
Record
46%
799-931 (1730)
Invested
$42.39
Value
—
PnL
-$42.39
Record
50%
3388-3341 (6729)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$38.59
Value
$35
PnL
-$3.59
Record
53%
4069-3543 (7612)
Invested
$18.5
Value
—
PnL
-$18.5
Record
49%
3249-3358 (6607)
Invested
$17.67
Value
—
PnL
-$17.67
Record
38%
592-951 (1543)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $1.4K
38791873984189
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $463.31
mo-money
Up — $409.89
almach
Up — $318.64
blue.birds
Up — $316.01
stepahead
Up — $300.63
bosona
CTRDown — $0
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
Up — $169
CrouchPredictions
Up — $147.01