Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Up 58%
5 arb excluded
$5.7K
-$46.66
Smart Money Signal
15 of 25 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$7.01 | 46% 497-585 (1082) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 96.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$38.91 | 58% 428-305 (733) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 82.3¢ | $248.33 | $238.92 | -$9.41 | 51% 1031-992 (2023) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 82.3¢ | $196.65 | $238.92 | +$42.27 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 11¢ | $51.68 | — | -$51.68 | |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $34.97 | — | -$34.97 | 39% 484-758 (1242) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 78.5¢ | $234.95 | $297.17 | +$62.22 | 60% 419-277 (696) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 61.1¢ | $207.12 | $172.94 | -$34.17 | 40% 296-435 (731) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.1¢ | $105.69 | $172.94 | +$67.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.6¢ | $101.43 | — | -$101.43 | |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 73.4¢ | $150.52 | $190.83 | +$40.3 | 52% 3556-3327 (6883) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 30.1¢ | $145.17 | $104.75 | -$40.42 | 54% 3659-3078 (6737) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47¢ | $49.25 | $104.75 | +$55.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.1¢ | $95.92 | — | -$95.92 | |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.4¢ | $20.68 | — | -$20.68 | 38% 373-606 (979) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.1¢ | $88.53 | — | -$88.53 | 45% 417-512 (929) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 97.4¢ | $95.39 | $71.22 | -$24.17 | 24% 339-1081 (1420) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 97.4¢ | $69.37 | $71.22 | +$1.85 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.4¢ | $26.02 | — | -$26.02 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $81.66 | $59.5 | -$22.16 | 41% 320-454 (774) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.5¢ | $40.75 | $59.5 | +$18.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46¢ | $40.91 | — | -$40.91 | |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $24.3 | $23 | -$1.3 | 35% 436-816 (1252) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $37 | $50 | +$13 | 49% 3249-3358 (6607) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 80.8¢ | $28.48 | $35.26 | +$6.78 | 65% 1505-799 (2304) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100 | Downavg 22.4¢ | $32.7 | — | -$32.7 | 32% 319-692 (1011) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $22.94 | $23.25 | +$0.31 | 40% 523-796 (1319) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $13.7 | $21 | +$7.3 | 48% 825-881 (1706) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Downavg 6¢ | $5.07 | — | -$5.07 | 52% 340-317 (657) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.7 | — | -$0.7 | 50% 3388-3341 (6729) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.9¢ | $1.93 | — | -$1.93 | 53% 923-832 (1755) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $23 | — | -$23 | 61% 1710-1077 (2787) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $8.2 | $10 | +$1.8 | 47% 257-295 (552) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $5 | $10.2 | +$5.2 | 44% 812-1016 (1828) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $7.2 | $6 | -$0.98 | 60% 1047-698 (1745) |
Invested
$3,015.02
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$7.01
Record
46%
497-585 (1082)
Invested
$1,350.58
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$38.91
Record
58%
428-305 (733)
Invested
$248.33
Value
$238.92
PnL
-$9.41
Record
51%
1031-992 (2023)
Both legs:
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$34.97
Value
—
PnL
-$34.97
Record
39%
484-758 (1242)
Invested
$234.95
Value
$297.17
PnL
+$62.22
Record
60%
419-277 (696)
Invested
$207.12
Value
$172.94
PnL
-$34.17
Record
40%
296-435 (731)
Both legs:
Invested
$150.52
Value
$190.83
PnL
+$40.3
Record
52%
3556-3327 (6883)
Invested
$145.17
Value
$104.75
PnL
-$40.42
Record
54%
3659-3078 (6737)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.68
Value
—
PnL
-$20.68
Record
38%
373-606 (979)
Invested
$88.53
Value
—
PnL
-$88.53
Record
45%
417-512 (929)
Invested
$95.39
Value
$71.22
PnL
-$24.17
Record
24%
339-1081 (1420)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.66
Value
$59.5
PnL
-$22.16
Record
41%
320-454 (774)
Both legs:
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$24.3
Value
$23
PnL
-$1.3
Record
35%
436-816 (1252)
Invested
$37
Value
$50
PnL
+$13
Record
49%
3249-3358 (6607)
Invested
$28.48
Value
$35.26
PnL
+$6.78
Record
65%
1505-799 (2304)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100Invested
$32.7
Value
—
PnL
-$32.7
Record
32%
319-692 (1011)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$22.94
Value
$23.25
PnL
+$0.31
Record
40%
523-796 (1319)
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.7
Value
$21
PnL
+$7.3
Record
48%
825-881 (1706)
Invested
$5.07
Value
—
PnL
-$5.07
Record
52%
340-317 (657)
Invested
$0.7
Value
—
PnL
-$0.7
Record
50%
3388-3341 (6729)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$1.93
Value
—
PnL
-$1.93
Record
53%
923-832 (1755)
Invested
$23
Value
—
PnL
-$23
Record
61%
1710-1077 (2787)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$8.2
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.8
Record
47%
257-295 (552)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$5
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$5.2
Record
44%
812-1016 (1828)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.98
Record
60%
1047-698 (1745)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.4K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
CTRDown — $0
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $297.17
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Up — $190.83
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0