Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 87%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$275.91

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 30 top traders (87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,156

Combined PnL+$438.56

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares639

Combined PnL-$162.65

Down — 87%Up — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 90.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$30.36	59% 423-299 (722)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$7.43	46% 487-576 (1063)
MO mo-money	Downavg 62¢	$317.16	$500	+$182.84	45% 515-642 (1157)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 74.9¢	$487.75	$452.73	-$33.6	53% 908-821 (1729)
ST stepahead	Downavg 59.3¢	$239.28	$269	+$29.72	54% 3652-3070 (6722)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.6¢	$175.73	$202	+$26.27	51% 1009-957 (1966)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 50.1¢	$172.68	$200	+$27.32	40% 291-429 (720)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72.9¢	$178.72	$182.05	+$3.34	24% 335-1074 (1409)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 52.1¢	$135.95	—	-$135.95	46% 786-920 (1706)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 91¢	$138.32	$117.71	-$20.61	60% 414-271 (685)
AL almach	Downavg 55.4¢	$65.2	$113.64	+$48.44	45% 507-626 (1133)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 11.8¢	$90.06	$79.49	-$10.57	45% 412-502 (914)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$39.05	$79.49	+$40.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.8¢	$51.01	—	-$51.01
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 77.5¢	$92.29	$91.21	-$1.08	31% 314-687 (1001)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 66¢	$54.8	$83.07	+$28.27	49% 380-402 (782)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$67.59	$94.66	+$27.07	53% 4062-3539 (7601)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 58.9¢	$90.87	$37.77	-$53.1	41% 315-448 (763)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.9¢	$74.55	—	-$74.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$16.32	$37.77	+$21.45
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 54.4¢	$37.44	$65.98	+$28.54	49% 3233-3339 (6572)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 55.1¢	$52.56	$60.09	+$7.53	44% 798-998 (1796)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 47¢	$47.25	$100	+$52.75	51% 339-320 (659)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$41.05	$43.3	+$2.25	52% 3542-3305 (6847)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 97¢	$44.46	$44.7	+$0.24	35% 429-801 (1230)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$24.7	$42.77	+$18.07	39% 586-930 (1516)
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$28.7	$39	+$10.3	47% 253-288 (541)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 93¢	$38.03	$40.13	+$2.11	39% 480-748 (1228)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$24.01	$34.35	+$10.34	61% 1683-1060 (2743)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,721.56

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$30.36

Record

59%

423-299 (722)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,625.47

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$7.43

Record

46%

487-576 (1063)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$317.16

Value

$500

PnL

+$182.84

Record

45%

515-642 (1157)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$487.75

Value

$452.73

PnL

-$33.6

Record

53%

908-821 (1729)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$239.28

Value

$269

PnL

+$29.72

Record

54%

3652-3070 (6722)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$175.73

Value

$202

PnL

+$26.27

Record

51%

1009-957 (1966)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$172.68

Value

$200

PnL

+$27.32

Record

40%

291-429 (720)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$178.72

Value

$182.05

PnL

+$3.34

Record

24%

335-1074 (1409)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$135.95

Value

—

PnL

-$135.95

Record

46%

786-920 (1706)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$138.32

Value

$117.71

PnL

-$20.61

Record

60%

414-271 (685)

almach

Down

Invested

$65.2

Value

$113.64

PnL

+$48.44

Record

45%

507-626 (1133)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$90.06

Value

$79.49

PnL

-$10.57

Record

45%

412-502 (914)

Both legs:

Down$39.0549.1¢+$40.43

Up$51.0111.8¢-$51.01

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$92.29

Value

$91.21

PnL

-$1.08

Record

31%

314-687 (1001)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$54.8

Value

$83.07

PnL

+$28.27

Record

49%

380-402 (782)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$67.59

Value

$94.66

PnL

+$27.07

Record

53%

4062-3539 (7601)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$90.87

Value

$37.77

PnL

-$53.1

Record

41%

315-448 (763)

Both legs:

Up$74.5558.9¢-$74.55

Down$16.3243.2¢+$21.45

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$37.44

Value

$65.98

PnL

+$28.54

Record

49%

3233-3339 (6572)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$52.56

Value

$60.09

PnL

+$7.53

Record

44%

798-998 (1796)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$47.25

Value

$100

PnL

+$52.75

Record

51%

339-320 (659)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$41.05

Value

$43.3

PnL

+$2.25

Record

52%

3542-3305 (6847)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$44.46

Value

$44.7

PnL

+$0.24

Record

35%

429-801 (1230)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$24.7

Value

$42.77

PnL

+$18.07

Record

39%

586-930 (1516)

OhioAI<$100

Down

Invested

$28.7

Value

$39

PnL

+$10.3

Record

47%

253-288 (541)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$38.03

Value

$40.13

PnL

+$2.11

Record

39%

480-748 (1228)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$24.01

Value

$34.35

PnL

+$10.34

Record

61%

1683-1060 (2743)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 30 top traders (87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6771706d...932872

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794400200

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $1.7K

-$30.36

0x50f7

Down — $1.6K

-$7.43

mo-money

Down — $500

+$182.84

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $452.73

-$33.6

stepahead

Down — $269

+$29.72

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $202

+$26.27

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $200

+$27.32

ply-pm0

Down — $182.05

+$3.34

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$135.95

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $117.71

-$20.61

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