Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$486.65

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 31 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares5,970

Combined PnL+$614.9

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,731

Combined PnL-$128.25

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 92.1¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$140.72	59% 423-299 (722)
machinelearned	Downavg 75.3¢	$546.25	$671.54	+$125.29	39% 480-748 (1228)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 87.9¢	$439.1	$447.98	+$10.28	52% 3542-3305 (6847)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 84.7¢	$323.99	$346.6	+$22.61	60% 414-271 (685)
AL almach	Downavg 89.7¢	$307.33	$342.65	+$35.32	45% 507-626 (1133)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 83.8¢	$341.61	$297.09	-$44.52	40% 291-429 (720)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 45.2¢	$212.41	$469.63	+$257.22	46% 786-920 (1706)
BO bosona	Downavg 91.7¢	$178.37	$194.45	+$16.08	50% 3738-3764 (7502)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 78.5¢	$173.39	$162.02	-$11.36	24% 335-1074 (1409)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 68.7¢	$149.66	$158.99	+$9.33	51% 1009-957 (1966)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 73.1¢	$134.5	$157.06	+$22.57	53% 908-821 (1729)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 69.7¢	$139.42	$150.45	+$11.03	51% 339-320 (659)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 70.9¢	$179.2	$126.46	-$16.14	45% 412-502 (914)
ST stepahead	Downavg 61.1¢	$133.09	$112	-$21.09	54% 3652-3070 (6722)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 74.6¢	$106	$121.65	+$15.65	49% 380-402 (782)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 75.7¢	$109.81	$97.82	-$11.99	41% 315-448 (763)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.7¢	$74.04	$97.82	+$23.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.7¢	$35.77	—	-$35.77
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 83.8¢	$116.52	$106.74	-$9.14	31% 314-687 (1001)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 59¢	$40.19	$59.98	+$19.79	53% 4062-3539 (7601)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 98.8¢	$58.96	$58	-$0.96	65% 1481-789 (2270)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$51.74	$58	+$6.34	61% 1683-1060 (2743)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 72¢	$37.29	$51.79	+$14.5	45% 515-642 (1157)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$29.46	$34.32	+$4.85	39% 586-930 (1516)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Upavg 31.7¢	$54.35	—	-$54.35	52% 334-312 (646)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2.9¢	$37.66	—	-$37.66	46% 487-576 (1063)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 98¢	$19.88	$19	-$0.88	60% 1032-684 (1716)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,643.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$140.72

Record

59%

423-299 (722)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$546.25

Value

$671.54

PnL

+$125.29

Record

39%

480-748 (1228)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$439.1

Value

$447.98

PnL

+$10.28

Record

52%

3542-3305 (6847)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$323.99

Value

$346.6

PnL

+$22.61

Record

60%

414-271 (685)

almach

Down

Invested

$307.33

Value

$342.65

PnL

+$35.32

Record

45%

507-626 (1133)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$341.61

Value

$297.09

PnL

-$44.52

Record

40%

291-429 (720)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$212.41

Value

$469.63

PnL

+$257.22

Record

46%

786-920 (1706)

bosona

Down

Invested

$178.37

Value

$194.45

PnL

+$16.08

Record

50%

3738-3764 (7502)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$173.39

Value

$162.02

PnL

-$11.36

Record

24%

335-1074 (1409)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$149.66

Value

$158.99

PnL

+$9.33

Record

51%

1009-957 (1966)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$134.5

Value

$157.06

PnL

+$22.57

Record

53%

908-821 (1729)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$139.42

Value

$150.45

PnL

+$11.03

Record

51%

339-320 (659)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$179.2

Value

$126.46

PnL

-$16.14

Record

45%

412-502 (914)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$133.09

Value

$112

PnL

-$21.09

Record

54%

3652-3070 (6722)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$106

Value

$121.65

PnL

+$15.65

Record

49%

380-402 (782)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$109.81

Value

$97.82

PnL

-$11.99

Record

41%

315-448 (763)

Both legs:

Down$74.0475.7¢+$23.78

Up$35.7722.7¢-$35.77

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$116.52

Value

$106.74

PnL

-$9.14

Record

31%

314-687 (1001)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$40.19

Value

$59.98

PnL

+$19.79

Record

53%

4062-3539 (7601)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$58.96

Value

$58

PnL

-$0.96

Record

65%

1481-789 (2270)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$51.74

Value

$58

PnL

+$6.34

Record

61%

1683-1060 (2743)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$37.29

Value

$51.79

PnL

+$14.5

Record

45%

515-642 (1157)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$29.46

Value

$34.32

PnL

+$4.85

Record

39%

586-930 (1516)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Invested

$54.35

Value

—

PnL

-$54.35

Record

52%

334-312 (646)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$37.66

Value

—

PnL

-$37.66

Record

46%

487-576 (1063)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19

PnL

-$0.88

Record

60%

1032-684 (1716)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 31 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf1f2e30a...59bd05

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794399600

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $1.8K

+$140.72

machinelearned

Down — $671.54

+$125.29

blue.birds

Down — $447.98

+$10.28

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $346.6

+$22.61

almach

Down — $342.65

+$35.32

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $297.09

-$44.52

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $469.63

+$257.22

bosona

Down — $194.45

+$16.08

ply-pm0

Down — $162.02

-$11.36

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $158.99

+$9.33

Trade on Polymarket