Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 58%
3 arb excluded
$9.3K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 33 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$17.01 | 98% 1544-32 (1576) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$79.18 | 46% 786-920 (1706) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$10.2 | 75% 606-205 (811) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.4¢ | $996.8 | $939.96 | -$56.85 | 45% 412-502 (914) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 88¢ | $711.08 | $733.17 | +$22.1 | 45% 515-642 (1157) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 42.5¢ | $296.82 | $443.22 | +$146.4 | 40% 291-429 (720) |
BO bosona | Downavg 92.6¢ | $417.38 | $436.45 | +$19.07 | 50% 3738-3764 (7502) |
AL almach | Downavg 71.6¢ | $307.75 | $386.07 | +$78.33 | 45% 507-626 (1133) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $358.8 | $378.17 | +$19.37 | 24% 335-1074 (1409) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 32¢ | $618.34 | — | -$618.34 | 39% 480-748 (1228) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 50.6¢ | $243.25 | $235.3 | +$37.84 | 52% 3542-3305 (6847) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 56.9¢ | $215.86 | $237.31 | +$21.44 | 41% 315-448 (763) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.9¢ | $248.3 | $222.15 | -$26.15 | 54% 3652-3070 (6722) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 62.9¢ | $211.77 | $214.44 | +$2.67 | 51% 1009-957 (1966) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.6¢ | $95.74 | $214.44 | +$118.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.9¢ | $116.03 | — | -$116.03 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Upavg 73.4¢ | $198.18 | — | -$198.18 | 51% 339-320 (659) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 56¢ | $110.43 | — | -$110.43 | 59% 423-299 (722) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 56.1¢ | $162.85 | — | -$162.85 | 31% 314-687 (1001) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Upavg 68.1¢ | $207.83 | $116.57 | -$91.25 | 60% 414-271 (685) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.4¢ | $70.46 | $116.57 | +$46.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.1¢ | $137.37 | — | -$137.37 | |
PB PBot-5CTR | Upavg 49.9¢ | $123.15 | — | -$123.15 | 47% 473-529 (1002) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 65.2¢ | $125.83 | $192.89 | +$67.05 | 52% 334-312 (646) |
PA PapeasyARB<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $80.3 | $90.14 | +$9.84 | 50% 3384-3334 (6718) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.5¢ | $45.53 | $90.14 | +$44.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53¢ | $34.76 | — | -$34.76 | |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $87.36 | — | -$87.36 | 53% 4062-3539 (7601) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $79.42 | $74.55 | -$4.88 | 53% 908-821 (1729) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 81.6¢ | $65.62 | $70 | +$7.26 | 61% 1683-1060 (2743) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $71.2 | $80 | +$8.8 | 51% 146-138 (284) |
Invested
$1,683.99
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$17.01
Record
98%
1544-32 (1576)
Invested
$1,710.18
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$79.18
Record
46%
786-920 (1706)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,010.03
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10.2
Record
75%
606-205 (811)
Invested
$996.8
Value
$939.96
PnL
-$56.85
Record
45%
412-502 (914)
Invested
$711.08
Value
$733.17
PnL
+$22.1
Record
45%
515-642 (1157)
Invested
$296.82
Value
$443.22
PnL
+$146.4
Record
40%
291-429 (720)
Invested
$417.38
Value
$436.45
PnL
+$19.07
Record
50%
3738-3764 (7502)
Invested
$307.75
Value
$386.07
PnL
+$78.33
Record
45%
507-626 (1133)
Invested
$358.8
Value
$378.17
PnL
+$19.37
Record
24%
335-1074 (1409)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$618.34
Value
—
PnL
-$618.34
Record
39%
480-748 (1228)
Invested
$243.25
Value
$235.3
PnL
+$37.84
Record
52%
3542-3305 (6847)
Invested
$215.86
Value
$237.31
PnL
+$21.44
Record
41%
315-448 (763)
Invested
$248.3
Value
$222.15
PnL
-$26.15
Record
54%
3652-3070 (6722)
Invested
$211.77
Value
$214.44
PnL
+$2.67
Record
51%
1009-957 (1966)
Both legs:
Invested
$198.18
Value
—
PnL
-$198.18
Record
51%
339-320 (659)
Invested
$110.43
Value
—
PnL
-$110.43
Record
59%
423-299 (722)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$162.85
Value
—
PnL
-$162.85
Record
31%
314-687 (1001)
Invested
$207.83
Value
$116.57
PnL
-$91.25
Record
60%
414-271 (685)
Both legs:
Invested
$123.15
Value
—
PnL
-$123.15
Record
47%
473-529 (1002)
Invested
$125.83
Value
$192.89
PnL
+$67.05
Record
52%
334-312 (646)
Invested
$80.3
Value
$90.14
PnL
+$9.84
Record
50%
3384-3334 (6718)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$87.36
Value
—
PnL
-$87.36
Record
53%
4062-3539 (7601)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$79.42
Value
$74.55
PnL
-$4.88
Record
53%
908-821 (1729)
Invested
$65.62
Value
$70
PnL
+$7.26
Record
61%
1683-1060 (2743)
Invested
$71.2
Value
$80
PnL
+$8.8
Record
51%
146-138 (284)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.7K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.6K
BoneOhio
Down — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $939.96
mo-money
Down — $733.17
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $443.22
bosona
Down — $436.45
almach
Down — $386.07
ply-pm0
Down — $378.17
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0