Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
36
Down 61%
2 arb excluded
$10.3K
$132.95
Smart Money Signal
22 of 36 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$3.36 | 46% 487-576 (1063) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $754.55 | $1.5K | +$728.45 | 46% 786-920 (1706) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 69.9¢ | $476.81 | $480.81 | +$3.99 | 45% 412-502 (914) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.9¢ | $140.88 | — | -$140.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.9¢ | $335.93 | $480.81 | +$144.88 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65¢ | $658.24 | $635.79 | -$22.45 | 54% 3652-3070 (6722) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 86¢ | $638 | $600 | -$38 | 39% 480-748 (1228) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 19.9¢ | $241.64 | — | -$241.64 | 50% 3738-3764 (7502) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 55.9¢ | $465.84 | $543.01 | +$77.17 | 59% 423-299 (722) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 74¢ | $422.88 | $487.43 | +$65.4 | 52% 3542-3305 (6847) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $429.87 | $436 | +$6.13 | 98% 1544-32 (1576) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 20¢ | $152.82 | — | -$152.82 | 45% 515-642 (1157) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 75.9¢ | $374.04 | $370.02 | +$15.77 | 53% 908-821 (1729) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 64.1¢ | $357.54 | $326.6 | -$30.94 | 40% 291-429 (720) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 77.8¢ | $297.61 | $312.11 | +$14.5 | 24% 335-1074 (1409) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 90.8¢ | $279.71 | $299.33 | +$19.62 | 60% 414-271 (685) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 65.2¢ | $150.35 | $170.24 | +$28.47 | 51% 1009-957 (1966) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 77.8¢ | $126.36 | $99.6 | -$26.75 | 41% 315-448 (763) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.8¢ | $77.46 | $99.6 | +$22.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.9¢ | $48.9 | — | -$48.9 | |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 81.6¢ | $102.4 | $105.84 | +$3.44 | 65% 1481-789 (2270) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $91.2 | $90.74 | +$9.14 | 49% 3233-3339 (6572) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 21.2¢ | $112.37 | — | -$112.37 | 45% 507-626 (1133) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 85.6¢ | $72.09 | $70 | -$2.09 | 31% 314-687 (1001) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $70.16 | $63.44 | -$6.72 | 52% 334-312 (646) |
 ohioismCTR | Upavg 21.3¢ | $101.96 | — | -$80.96 | 48% 807-866 (1673) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 51.7¢ | $68.18 | — | -$68.18 | 49% 380-402 (782) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $40 | $40 | +$0 | 51% 146-138 (284) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $14.25 | — | -$14.25 | 50% 3384-3334 (6718) |
Invested
$3,574.65
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$3.36
Record
46%
487-576 (1063)
Invested
$754.55
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$728.45
Record
46%
786-920 (1706)
Invested
$476.81
Value
$480.81
PnL
+$3.99
Record
45%
412-502 (914)
Both legs:
Invested
$658.24
Value
$635.79
PnL
-$22.45
Record
54%
3652-3070 (6722)
machinelearnedInvested
$638
Value
$600
PnL
-$38
Record
39%
480-748 (1228)
Invested
$241.64
Value
—
PnL
-$241.64
Record
50%
3738-3764 (7502)
Invested
$465.84
Value
$543.01
PnL
+$77.17
Record
59%
423-299 (722)
Invested
$422.88
Value
$487.43
PnL
+$65.4
Record
52%
3542-3305 (6847)
Invested
$429.87
Value
$436
PnL
+$6.13
Record
98%
1544-32 (1576)
Invested
$152.82
Value
—
PnL
-$152.82
Record
45%
515-642 (1157)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$374.04
Value
$370.02
PnL
+$15.77
Record
53%
908-821 (1729)
Invested
$357.54
Value
$326.6
PnL
-$30.94
Record
40%
291-429 (720)
Invested
$297.61
Value
$312.11
PnL
+$14.5
Record
24%
335-1074 (1409)
Invested
$279.71
Value
$299.33
PnL
+$19.62
Record
60%
414-271 (685)
Invested
$150.35
Value
$170.24
PnL
+$28.47
Record
51%
1009-957 (1966)
Invested
$126.36
Value
$99.6
PnL
-$26.75
Record
41%
315-448 (763)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.4
Value
$105.84
PnL
+$3.44
Record
65%
1481-789 (2270)
Invested
$91.2
Value
$90.74
PnL
+$9.14
Record
49%
3233-3339 (6572)
Invested
$112.37
Value
—
PnL
-$112.37
Record
45%
507-626 (1133)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$72.09
Value
$70
PnL
-$2.09
Record
31%
314-687 (1001)
Invested
$70.16
Value
$63.44
PnL
-$6.72
Record
52%
334-312 (646)
ohioismCTRInvested
$101.96
Value
—
PnL
-$80.96
Record
48%
807-866 (1673)
Invested
$68.18
Value
—
PnL
-$68.18
Record
49%
380-402 (782)
Invested
$40
Value
$40
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
146-138 (284)
Invested
$14.25
Value
—
PnL
-$14.25
Record
50%
3384-3334 (6718)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $3.6K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.5K
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Down — $635.79
machinelearned
Down — $600
bosona
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $543.01
blue.birds
Down — $487.43
hoodquant
Down — $436
mo-money
CTRUp — $0