Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 76%
4 arb excluded
$6.3K
-$203.42
Smart Money Signal
22 of 29 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 94.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$42.53 | 59% 423-299 (722) |
SH Sharky6999 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$1.26 | 98% 44-1 (45) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 65.5¢ | $528.07 | $633.03 | +$104.95 | 39% 480-748 (1228) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 30.3¢ | $431.52 | — | -$431.52 | 45% 412-502 (914) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $427.01 | $398.26 | -$28.75 | 51% 1009-957 (1966) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 60.1¢ | $330 | $364.65 | +$34.65 | 54% 3652-3070 (6722) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 64.1¢ | $319.8 | $360.23 | +$40.43 | 52% 3542-3305 (6847) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $244.61 | $245.98 | +$1.37 | 24% 335-1074 (1409) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 34.1¢ | $328.55 | $160.9 | -$167.64 | 40% 291-429 (720) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.4¢ | $102 | $160.9 | +$58.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.1¢ | $226.55 | — | -$226.55 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 55.9¢ | $144.25 | $186.14 | +$41.89 | 53% 908-821 (1729) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 59¢ | $173.62 | $184.5 | +$10.88 | 52% 334-312 (646) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 61.7¢ | $136.29 | $179.08 | +$42.79 | 60% 414-271 (685) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 69.4¢ | $157.66 | $157.17 | +$8.01 | 49% 3233-3339 (6572) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 56.9¢ | $88.78 | $121.03 | +$32.25 | 31% 314-687 (1001) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.9¢ | $68.88 | $121.03 | +$52.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.4¢ | $19.9 | — | -$19.9 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 32.4¢ | $55.52 | $55 | -$0.53 | 41% 315-448 (763) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.5¢ | $25.05 | $55 | +$29.95 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.4¢ | $30.47 | — | -$30.47 | |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 65.5¢ | $84.29 | $122.13 | +$37.84 | 49% 380-402 (782) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $69.69 | $75 | +$5.31 | 50% 3384-3334 (6718) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 32.5¢ | $49.24 | $35 | -$14.24 | 53% 4062-3539 (7601) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.5¢ | $32.49 | — | -$32.49 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.9¢ | $16.75 | $35 | +$18.25 | |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $54.2 | $53.36 | -$0.84 | 48% 807-866 (1673) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $43.65 | $44.54 | +$0.89 | 45% 507-626 (1133) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 94.3¢ | $44.94 | $38.47 | -$5.35 | 65% 1481-789 (2270) |
 OhioAICTR<$100 | Upavg 39.8¢ | $28.28 | — | -$28.28 | 47% 253-288 (541) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $14.27 | $33.97 | +$19.7 | 51% 339-320 (659) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $18.4 | — | -$18.4 | 51% 146-138 (284) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.4¢ | $9.9 | — | -$9.9 | 61% 1683-1060 (2743) |
Invested
$1,544.52
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$42.53
Record
59%
423-299 (722)
Invested
$1,261.1
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$1.26
Record
98%
44-1 (45)
machinelearnedInvested
$528.07
Value
$633.03
PnL
+$104.95
Record
39%
480-748 (1228)
Invested
$431.52
Value
—
PnL
-$431.52
Record
45%
412-502 (914)
Invested
$427.01
Value
$398.26
PnL
-$28.75
Record
51%
1009-957 (1966)
Invested
$330
Value
$364.65
PnL
+$34.65
Record
54%
3652-3070 (6722)
Invested
$319.8
Value
$360.23
PnL
+$40.43
Record
52%
3542-3305 (6847)
Invested
$244.61
Value
$245.98
PnL
+$1.37
Record
24%
335-1074 (1409)
Invested
$328.55
Value
$160.9
PnL
-$167.64
Record
40%
291-429 (720)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$144.25
Value
$186.14
PnL
+$41.89
Record
53%
908-821 (1729)
Invested
$173.62
Value
$184.5
PnL
+$10.88
Record
52%
334-312 (646)
Invested
$136.29
Value
$179.08
PnL
+$42.79
Record
60%
414-271 (685)
Invested
$157.66
Value
$157.17
PnL
+$8.01
Record
49%
3233-3339 (6572)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$88.78
Value
$121.03
PnL
+$32.25
Record
31%
314-687 (1001)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.52
Value
$55
PnL
-$0.53
Record
41%
315-448 (763)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.29
Value
$122.13
PnL
+$37.84
Record
49%
380-402 (782)
Invested
$69.69
Value
$75
PnL
+$5.31
Record
50%
3384-3334 (6718)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$49.24
Value
$35
PnL
-$14.24
Record
53%
4062-3539 (7601)
Both legs:
ohioism<$100Invested
$54.2
Value
$53.36
PnL
-$0.84
Record
48%
807-866 (1673)
Invested
$43.65
Value
$44.54
PnL
+$0.89
Record
45%
507-626 (1133)
Invested
$44.94
Value
$38.47
PnL
-$5.35
Record
65%
1481-789 (2270)
OhioAICTR<$100Invested
$28.28
Value
—
PnL
-$28.28
Record
47%
253-288 (541)
Invested
$14.27
Value
$33.97
PnL
+$19.7
Record
51%
339-320 (659)
Invested
$18.4
Value
—
PnL
-$18.4
Record
51%
146-138 (284)
Invested
$9.9
Value
—
PnL
-$9.9
Record
61%
1683-1060 (2743)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $1.5K
Sharky6999
Down — $1.3K
machinelearned
Down — $633.03
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $398.26
stepahead
Down — $364.65
blue.birds
Down — $360.23
ply-pm0
Down — $245.98
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $186.14