Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET

22 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold Down (61%) · Down at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 61%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 36 top traders (61%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares7,652

Combined PnL-$485.48

Up14 traders

Total Value$766.97

Total Shares6,403

Combined PnL-$527.16

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 95.8¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$77.85	59% 410-288 (698)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$881.58	$888.77	+$7.19	98% 1499-31 (1530)
machinelearned	Downavg 96¢	$1.1K	$838.81	-$277.28	39% 472-733 (1205)
AL almach	Downavg 85.3¢	$610.35	$641.22	+$30.87	45% 490-607 (1097)
BO bosona	Downavg 85¢	$787.36	$612.38	-$174.98	50% 3720-3750 (7470)
MO mo-money	Downavg 86.2¢	$745.83	$497.6	-$200.38	44% 496-623 (1119)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 90.9¢	$436.3	$335.44	-$100.86	61% 402-260 (662)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 43¢	$175.99	$289.75	+$113.75	41% 283-414 (697)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 64.5¢	$291.03	$272.78	-$18.24	51% 933-914 (1847)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 77.2¢	$207.83	$239.9	+$32.07	53% 887-786 (1673)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 34.2¢	$226.28	$231.22	+$4.93	54% 3640-3052 (6692)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 50.8¢	$140.32	$181.03	+$40.71	41% 303-437 (740)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 30.2¢	$444.38	$154.58	-$289.81	46% 758-894 (1652)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 44.8¢	$183.64	$143.52	-$40.12	24% 328-1058 (1386)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 82.6¢	$117.85	$117.24	-$0.6	52% 327-296 (623)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100	Downavg 94.7¢	$97.96	$88.19	-$9.77	52% 329-308 (637)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 56.8¢	$210.64	$85.83	-$124.8	46% 403-481 (884)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 79¢	$100.65	$79.76	-$20.89	48% 367-392 (759)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 20.1¢	$87.12	$69.28	-$16.44	52% 3510-3269 (6779)
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 97¢	$67.83	$69.19	+$1.37	50% 3375-3322 (6697)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86.5¢	$37.6	$43.12	+$5.52	65% 1431-763 (2194)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$40.45	$41.41	+$0.96	48% 468-506 (974)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 96¢	$31.68	$32.93	+$1.25	39% 480-751 (1231)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 1.9¢	$65.09	$26.28	-$38.82	45% 449-558 (1007)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 53¢	$18.55	$20.83	+$2.27	62% 1634-1017 (2651)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$2,178.13

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$77.85

Record

59%

410-288 (698)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$881.58

Value

$888.77

PnL

+$7.19

Record

98%

1499-31 (1530)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$1,116.09

Value

$838.81

PnL

-$277.28

Record

39%

472-733 (1205)

almach

Down

Invested

$610.35

Value

$641.22

PnL

+$30.87

Record

45%

490-607 (1097)

bosona

Down

Invested

$787.36

Value

$612.38

PnL

-$174.98

Record

50%

3720-3750 (7470)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$745.83

Value

$497.6

PnL

-$200.38

Record

44%

496-623 (1119)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$436.3

Value

$335.44

PnL

-$100.86

Record

61%

402-260 (662)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$175.99

Value

$289.75

PnL

+$113.75

Record

41%

283-414 (697)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$291.03

Value

$272.78

PnL

-$18.24

Record

51%

933-914 (1847)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$207.83

Value

$239.9

PnL

+$32.07

Record

53%

887-786 (1673)

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$226.28

Value

$231.22

PnL

+$4.93

Record

54%

3640-3052 (6692)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$140.32

Value

$181.03

PnL

+$40.71

Record

41%

303-437 (740)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$444.38

Value

$154.58

PnL

-$289.81

Record

46%

758-894 (1652)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$183.64

Value

$143.52

PnL

-$40.12

Record

24%

328-1058 (1386)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$117.85

Value

$117.24

PnL

-$0.6

Record

52%

327-296 (623)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100

Down

Invested

$97.96

Value

$88.19

PnL

-$9.77

Record

52%

329-308 (637)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$210.64

Value

$85.83

PnL

-$124.8

Record

46%

403-481 (884)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$100.65

Value

$79.76

PnL

-$20.89

Record

48%

367-392 (759)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$87.12

Value

$69.28

PnL

-$16.44

Record

52%

3510-3269 (6779)

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$67.83

Value

$69.19

PnL

+$1.37

Record

50%

3375-3322 (6697)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$37.6

Value

$43.12

PnL

+$5.52

Record

65%

1431-763 (2194)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$40.45

Value

$41.41

PnL

+$0.96

Record

48%

468-506 (974)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$31.68

Value

$32.93

PnL

+$1.25

Record

39%

480-751 (1231)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$65.09

Value

$26.28

PnL

-$38.82

Record

45%

449-558 (1007)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$18.55

Value

$20.83

PnL

+$2.27

Record

62%

1634-1017 (2651)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 36 top traders (61%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.