Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Up 53%
1 arb excluded
$5.9K
-$818.05
Smart Money Signal
17 of 32 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 90¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$3.28 | 59% 410-288 (698) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99¢ | $853.28 | $861.9 | +$8.62 | 46% 758-894 (1652) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 88.7¢ | $865.42 | $854.43 | -$10.99 | 39% 472-733 (1205) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 24.1¢ | $365.03 | — | -$365.03 | 46% 403-481 (884) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 59.5¢ | $391.83 | $398.96 | +$7.13 | 54% 3640-3052 (6692) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 68.9¢ | $353.29 | $374.62 | +$21.33 | 52% 3510-3269 (6779) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 59.2¢ | $328.16 | $357.55 | +$29.39 | 41% 283-414 (697) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 65.4¢ | $316.9 | $319.25 | +$2.35 | 51% 933-914 (1847) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 69.9¢ | $270.65 | $269.98 | -$0.67 | 24% 328-1058 (1386) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 83.7¢ | $193.63 | $203.28 | +$9.65 | 61% 402-260 (662) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 69.2¢ | $144.42 | $129.08 | -$15.34 | 49% 3193-3306 (6499) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 55¢ | $109.12 | $107.66 | -$1.45 | 53% 4053-3525 (7578) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 53.4¢ | $154.65 | $83.57 | -$71.08 | 48% 367-392 (759) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57¢ | $47.6 | $83.57 | +$35.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.4¢ | $107.05 | — | -$107.05 | |
38 38791873984189CTR | Downavg 49¢ | $100.18 | — | -$100.18 | 48% 1257-1350 (2607) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 35.3¢ | $162.15 | — | -$121.11 | 41% 303-437 (740) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 93¢ | $140.1 | $84.5 | -$55.6 | 52% 327-296 (623) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 88.9¢ | $89.41 | $87 | -$2.41 | 62% 1634-1017 (2651) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 80.1¢ | $55.7 | $69.56 | +$13.86 | 65% 1431-763 (2194) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 45.9¢ | $106.62 | — | -$106.62 | 31% 302-677 (979) |
 OhioAICTR<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $64.46 | — | -$62.11 | 47% 244-274 (518) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $31.72 | $56.68 | +$24.96 | 52% 329-308 (637) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $27.14 | $25 | -$2.14 | 45% 772-956 (1728) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $27.09 | — | -$26.04 | 53% 887-786 (1673) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $16.21 | — | -$16.21 | 50% 3375-3322 (6697) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $20.14 | — | -$20.14 | 48% 779-832 (1611) |
Invested
$1,566.33
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$3.28
Record
59%
410-288 (698)
Invested
$853.28
Value
$861.9
PnL
+$8.62
Record
46%
758-894 (1652)
machinelearnedInvested
$865.42
Value
$854.43
PnL
-$10.99
Record
39%
472-733 (1205)
Invested
$365.03
Value
—
PnL
-$365.03
Record
46%
403-481 (884)
Invested
$391.83
Value
$398.96
PnL
+$7.13
Record
54%
3640-3052 (6692)
Invested
$353.29
Value
$374.62
PnL
+$21.33
Record
52%
3510-3269 (6779)
Invested
$328.16
Value
$357.55
PnL
+$29.39
Record
41%
283-414 (697)
Invested
$316.9
Value
$319.25
PnL
+$2.35
Record
51%
933-914 (1847)
Invested
$270.65
Value
$269.98
PnL
-$0.67
Record
24%
328-1058 (1386)
Invested
$193.63
Value
$203.28
PnL
+$9.65
Record
61%
402-260 (662)
Invested
$144.42
Value
$129.08
PnL
-$15.34
Record
49%
3193-3306 (6499)
FairValueMachineInvested
$109.12
Value
$107.66
PnL
-$1.45
Record
53%
4053-3525 (7578)
Invested
$154.65
Value
$83.57
PnL
-$71.08
Record
48%
367-392 (759)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.18
Value
—
PnL
-$100.18
Record
48%
1257-1350 (2607)
Invested
$162.15
Value
—
PnL
-$121.11
Record
41%
303-437 (740)
Invested
$140.1
Value
$84.5
PnL
-$55.6
Record
52%
327-296 (623)
Invested
$89.41
Value
$87
PnL
-$2.41
Record
62%
1634-1017 (2651)
Invested
$55.7
Value
$69.56
PnL
+$13.86
Record
65%
1431-763 (2194)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$106.62
Value
—
PnL
-$106.62
Record
31%
302-677 (979)
OhioAICTR<$100Invested
$64.46
Value
—
PnL
-$62.11
Record
47%
244-274 (518)
Invested
$31.72
Value
$56.68
PnL
+$24.96
Record
52%
329-308 (637)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$27.14
Value
$25
PnL
-$2.14
Record
45%
772-956 (1728)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$27.09
Value
—
PnL
-$26.04
Record
53%
887-786 (1673)
Invested
$16.21
Value
—
PnL
-$16.21
Record
50%
3375-3322 (6697)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$20.14
Value
—
PnL
-$20.14
Record
48%
779-832 (1611)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $1.6K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $861.9
machinelearned
Up — $854.43
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $398.96
blue.birds
Up — $374.62
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $357.55
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $319.25
ply-pm0
Up — $269.98
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $203.28