Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 60%
2 arb excluded
$5.1K
-$208.45
Smart Money Signal
18 of 30 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 92.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$23.89 | 59% 410-288 (698) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 81.3¢ | $539 | $548.74 | +$9.74 | 46% 403-481 (884) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 78¢ | $392.45 | $399.77 | +$13.77 | 52% 3510-3269 (6779) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 69.1¢ | $393.2 | $395.74 | +$2.54 | 41% 283-414 (697) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 83.9¢ | $301.46 | $316.4 | +$14.94 | 53% 887-786 (1673) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 69¢ | $233.76 | $282.65 | +$48.89 | 39% 472-733 (1205) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 85¢ | $243.99 | $235.05 | -$8.31 | 51% 933-914 (1847) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 68.8¢ | $201.69 | $181.23 | -$20.46 | 24% 328-1058 (1386) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 43¢ | $214.73 | — | -$199.53 | 54% 3640-3052 (6692) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 87.3¢ | $172.37 | $151.7 | -$20.67 | 52% 329-308 (637) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $209.22 | $123.74 | -$85.48 | 44% 496-623 (1119) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81.7¢ | $101.08 | $123.74 | +$22.65 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40¢ | $108.14 | — | -$108.14 | |
38 38791873984189 | Upavg 48.7¢ | $132.12 | $271.08 | +$138.96 | 48% 1257-1350 (2607) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 29.7¢ | $111.36 | $82.35 | -$29.01 | 41% 303-437 (740) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.8¢ | $47.56 | $82.35 | +$34.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.7¢ | $63.8 | — | -$63.8 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 94¢ | $104.04 | $104 | -$0.04 | 62% 1634-1017 (2651) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 46¢ | $73.14 | $159 | +$85.86 | 46% 758-894 (1652) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Upavg 68.4¢ | $87.12 | $79.1 | -$8.02 | 31% 302-677 (979) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 90.7¢ | $64.6 | $68.85 | +$4.25 | 49% 3193-3306 (6499) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 89.6¢ | $39.71 | $44.31 | +$4.6 | 65% 1431-763 (2194) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100 | Downavg 21.7¢ | $91.7 | — | -$91.7 | 61% 402-260 (662) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $16.99 | $25 | +$8.01 | 48% 367-392 (759) |
 OhioAICTR<$100 | Downavg 24.4¢ | $31.48 | — | -$17.08 | 47% 244-274 (518) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $20.09 | — | -$20.09 | 50% 3375-3322 (6697) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.8¢ | $50.74 | — | -$50.74 | 45% 449-558 (1007) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $44.73 | — | -$44.73 | 53% 4053-3525 (7578) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Upavg 63.3¢ | $46.06 | $9.16 | +$3.43 | 58% 1531-1106 (2637) |
Invested
$1,610.2
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$23.89
Record
59%
410-288 (698)
Invested
$539
Value
$548.74
PnL
+$9.74
Record
46%
403-481 (884)
Invested
$392.45
Value
$399.77
PnL
+$13.77
Record
52%
3510-3269 (6779)
Invested
$393.2
Value
$395.74
PnL
+$2.54
Record
41%
283-414 (697)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$301.46
Value
$316.4
PnL
+$14.94
Record
53%
887-786 (1673)
machinelearnedInvested
$233.76
Value
$282.65
PnL
+$48.89
Record
39%
472-733 (1205)
Invested
$243.99
Value
$235.05
PnL
-$8.31
Record
51%
933-914 (1847)
Invested
$201.69
Value
$181.23
PnL
-$20.46
Record
24%
328-1058 (1386)
Invested
$214.73
Value
—
PnL
-$199.53
Record
54%
3640-3052 (6692)
Invested
$172.37
Value
$151.7
PnL
-$20.67
Record
52%
329-308 (637)
Invested
$209.22
Value
$123.74
PnL
-$85.48
Record
44%
496-623 (1119)
Both legs:
Invested
$132.12
Value
$271.08
PnL
+$138.96
Record
48%
1257-1350 (2607)
Invested
$111.36
Value
$82.35
PnL
-$29.01
Record
41%
303-437 (740)
Both legs:
Invested
$104.04
Value
$104
PnL
-$0.04
Record
62%
1634-1017 (2651)
Invested
$73.14
Value
$159
PnL
+$85.86
Record
46%
758-894 (1652)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$87.12
Value
$79.1
PnL
-$8.02
Record
31%
302-677 (979)
Invested
$64.6
Value
$68.85
PnL
+$4.25
Record
49%
3193-3306 (6499)
Invested
$39.71
Value
$44.31
PnL
+$4.6
Record
65%
1431-763 (2194)
Invested
$91.7
Value
—
PnL
-$91.7
Record
61%
402-260 (662)
Invested
$16.99
Value
$25
PnL
+$8.01
Record
48%
367-392 (759)
OhioAICTR<$100Invested
$31.48
Value
—
PnL
-$17.08
Record
47%
244-274 (518)
Invested
$20.09
Value
—
PnL
-$20.09
Record
50%
3375-3322 (6697)
Invested
$50.74
Value
—
PnL
-$50.74
Record
45%
449-558 (1007)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$44.73
Value
—
PnL
-$44.73
Record
53%
4053-3525 (7578)
Invested
$46.06
Value
$9.16
PnL
+$3.43
Record
58%
1531-1106 (2637)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $1.6K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $548.74
blue.birds
Up — $399.77
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $395.74
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $316.4
machinelearned
Up — $282.65
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $235.05
ply-pm0
Up — $181.23
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
Up — $151.7