Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Down 43%
8 arb excluded
$8.0K
$-3.3K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 28 top traders (43%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 74% 577-199 (776) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98.6¢ | $995.42 | $1.0K | +$11.3 | 46% 758-894 (1652) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 53.2¢ | $827.14 | $819.68 | -$2.35 | 41% 283-414 (697) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 52¢ | $853.7 | — | -$853.7 | 24% 328-1058 (1386) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 52.1¢ | $681.38 | — | -$681.38 | 54% 3640-3052 (6692) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 55.1¢ | $520.46 | $439.62 | +$15.19 | 52% 3510-3269 (6779) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 51.5¢ | $393.41 | $244.29 | -$149.12 | 46% 403-481 (884) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.5¢ | $315.87 | — | -$315.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.7¢ | $77.53 | $244.29 | +$166.76 | |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 60.5¢ | $427.83 | — | -$427.83 | 45% 490-607 (1097) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 41.6¢ | $268.08 | $237.17 | -$30.92 | 41% 303-437 (740) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.6¢ | $156.71 | — | -$156.71 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47¢ | $111.37 | $237.17 | +$125.8 | |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 61.8¢ | $371 | — | -$371 | 50% 3720-3750 (7470) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $361.35 | $302.15 | -$59.2 | 51% 933-914 (1847) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 62.4¢ | $361.73 | — | -$361.73 | 44% 496-623 (1119) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 60¢ | $240.19 | $260.46 | +$20.27 | 31% 302-677 (979) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 43.3¢ | $160.17 | $84.42 | -$75.75 | 39% 472-733 (1205) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.3¢ | $108.95 | — | -$108.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.7¢ | $51.22 | $84.42 | +$33.2 | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 46.3¢ | $273.88 | — | -$273.88 | 59% 410-288 (698) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 62.2¢ | $182.92 | $162.42 | -$20.5 | 49% 3193-3306 (6499) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 69.3¢ | $166.67 | $140.17 | -$26.5 | 61% 402-260 (662) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.5¢ | $69.47 | — | -$69.47 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.3¢ | $97.2 | $140.17 | +$42.97 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Upavg 64.8¢ | $187.07 | $130.76 | -$56.31 | 52% 329-308 (637) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.8¢ | $112.88 | — | -$112.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.7¢ | $74.19 | $130.76 | +$56.57 | |
PA PapeasyARB<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $123.2 | $158.04 | +$34.84 | 50% 3375-3322 (6697) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.5¢ | $84.57 | $158.04 | +$73.47 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.9¢ | $38.63 | — | -$38.63 | |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Upavg 48.7¢ | $101.29 | $75 | -$26.29 | 47% 244-274 (518) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.7¢ | $56.03 | — | -$56.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.3¢ | $45.26 | $75 | +$29.74 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 60.5¢ | $105.62 | $60.44 | -$45.18 | 53% 887-786 (1673) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.5¢ | $72.6 | — | -$72.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.6¢ | $33.02 | $60.44 | +$27.42 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $92.74 | $88.96 | +$12.62 | 62% 1634-1017 (2651) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $80.4 | $85.32 | +$4.92 | 48% 367-392 (759) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 48.8¢ | $117.57 | — | -$117.57 | 53% 4053-3525 (7578) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98.6¢ | $96.51 | $77 | -$19.51 | 65% 1431-763 (2194) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
74%
577-199 (776)
Invested
$995.42
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$11.3
Record
46%
758-894 (1652)
Invested
$827.14
Value
$819.68
PnL
-$2.35
Record
41%
283-414 (697)
Invested
$853.7
Value
—
PnL
-$853.7
Record
24%
328-1058 (1386)
Invested
$681.38
Value
—
PnL
-$681.38
Record
54%
3640-3052 (6692)
Invested
$520.46
Value
$439.62
PnL
+$15.19
Record
52%
3510-3269 (6779)
Invested
$393.41
Value
$244.29
PnL
-$149.12
Record
46%
403-481 (884)
Both legs:
Invested
$427.83
Value
—
PnL
-$427.83
Record
45%
490-607 (1097)
Invested
$268.08
Value
$237.17
PnL
-$30.92
Record
41%
303-437 (740)
Both legs:
Invested
$371
Value
—
PnL
-$371
Record
50%
3720-3750 (7470)
Invested
$361.35
Value
$302.15
PnL
-$59.2
Record
51%
933-914 (1847)
Invested
$361.73
Value
—
PnL
-$361.73
Record
44%
496-623 (1119)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$240.19
Value
$260.46
PnL
+$20.27
Record
31%
302-677 (979)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$160.17
Value
$84.42
PnL
-$75.75
Record
39%
472-733 (1205)
Both legs:
Invested
$273.88
Value
—
PnL
-$273.88
Record
59%
410-288 (698)
Invested
$182.92
Value
$162.42
PnL
-$20.5
Record
49%
3193-3306 (6499)
Invested
$166.67
Value
$140.17
PnL
-$26.5
Record
61%
402-260 (662)
Both legs:
Invested
$187.07
Value
$130.76
PnL
-$56.31
Record
52%
329-308 (637)
Both legs:
Invested
$123.2
Value
$158.04
PnL
+$34.84
Record
50%
3375-3322 (6697)
Both legs:
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$101.29
Value
$75
PnL
-$26.29
Record
47%
244-274 (518)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$105.62
Value
$60.44
PnL
-$45.18
Record
53%
887-786 (1673)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.74
Value
$88.96
PnL
+$12.62
Record
62%
1634-1017 (2651)
Invested
$80.4
Value
$85.32
PnL
+$4.92
Record
48%
367-392 (759)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$117.57
Value
—
PnL
-$117.57
Record
53%
4053-3525 (7578)
Invested
$96.51
Value
$77
PnL
-$19.51
Record
65%
1431-763 (2194)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.5K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $819.68
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $439.62
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
CTRUp — $0