Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$142.7

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 29 top traders (66%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,540

Combined PnL+$453.49

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,075

Combined PnL-$596.19

Down — 66%Up — 34%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$847.32	$829.27	-$18.04	41% 283-414 (697)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.7¢	$486.98	$829.27	+$342.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.5¢	$360.34	—	-$360.34
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 51.8¢	$709.28	$724.04	+$14.76	24% 328-1058 (1386)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$375.13	$724.04	+$348.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.6¢	$334.15	—	-$334.15
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$624.32	$637.3	+$12.98	52% 3510-3269 (6779)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.2¢	$390.19	$637.3	+$247.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$234.13	—	-$234.13
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 54.1¢	$581.28	$548.97	-$32.31	54% 3640-3052 (6692)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.1¢	$297.03	$548.97	+$251.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$284.25	—	-$284.25
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 55.2¢	$479.69	$572.13	+$92.44	59% 410-288 (698)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 41.2¢	$540.8	$370.19	-$170.61	46% 403-481 (884)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.7¢	$209.83	$370.19	+$160.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$330.97	—	-$330.97
BO bosona	Downavg 63¢	$284.92	$376.05	+$91.13	50% 3720-3750 (7470)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 17.9¢	$162.37	$45.38	-$116.99	39% 472-733 (1205)
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.9¢	$136.32	—	-$136.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.4¢	$26.05	$45.38	+$19.33
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 40.2¢	$238.32	—	-$230.22	41% 303-437 (740)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 62.6¢	$186.18	$175.32	-$10.86	52% 327-296 (623)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 58.5¢	$133.42	$184.92	+$51.5	48% 367-392 (759)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 74.8¢	$119.72	$135.38	+$19.25	62% 1634-1017 (2651)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 72.8¢	$141.84	$124.48	-$17.36	53% 887-786 (1673)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.8¢	$90.64	$124.48	+$33.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$51.2	—	-$51.2
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 58.4¢	$105.28	$147.35	+$42.08	31% 302-677 (979)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$136.11	$110.74	-$25.38	53% 4053-3525 (7578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$69.49	$110.74	+$41.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$66.62	—	-$66.62
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 59.2¢	$103.44	$121.27	+$17.83	49% 3193-3306 (6499)
BoneOhio	Downavg 72.6¢	$76.9	$105.86	+$28.96	74% 577-199 (776)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 90¢	$112.03	$107.35	-$4.68	65% 1431-763 (2194)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 53.6¢	$97.3	$95.79	-$1.51	61% 402-260 (662)
PA Papeasy	Downavg 63.5¢	$72.12	$113.62	+$41.49	50% 3375-3322 (6697)
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$83.27	$87.26	+$3.99	47% 244-274 (518)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 48.9¢	$52.97	$103	+$50.04	52% 329-308 (637)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$74.62	$69	-$5.62	48% 779-832 (1611)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 49¢	$147	—	-$147	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$39.25	$50	+$10.75	45% 772-956 (1728)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$847.32

Value

$829.27

PnL

-$18.04

Record

41%

283-414 (697)

Both legs:

Down$486.9858.7¢+$342.3

Up$360.3436.5¢-$360.34

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$709.28

Value

$724.04

PnL

+$14.76

Record

24%

328-1058 (1386)

Both legs:

Down$375.1351.8¢+$348.9

Up$334.1538.6¢-$334.15

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$624.32

Value

$637.3

PnL

+$12.98

Record

52%

3510-3269 (6779)

Both legs:

Down$390.1961.2¢+$247.12

Up$234.1333¢-$234.13

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$581.28

Value

$548.97

PnL

-$32.31

Record

54%

3640-3052 (6692)

Both legs:

Down$297.0354.1¢+$251.94

Up$284.2539.7¢-$284.25

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$479.69

Value

$572.13

PnL

+$92.44

Record

59%

410-288 (698)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$540.8

Value

$370.19

PnL

-$170.61

Record

46%

403-481 (884)

Both legs:

Down$209.8356.7¢+$160.36

Up$330.9741.2¢-$330.97

bosona

Down

Invested

$284.92

Value

$376.05

PnL

+$91.13

Record

50%

3720-3750 (7470)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$162.37

Value

$45.38

PnL

-$116.99

Record

39%

472-733 (1205)

Both legs:

Up$136.3217.9¢-$136.32

Down$26.0557.4¢+$19.33

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$238.32

Value

—

PnL

-$230.22

Record

41%

303-437 (740)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$186.18

Value

$175.32

PnL

-$10.86

Record

52%

327-296 (623)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$133.42

Value

$184.92

PnL

+$51.5

Record

48%

367-392 (759)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$119.72

Value

$135.38

PnL

+$19.25

Record

62%

1634-1017 (2651)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$141.84

Value

$124.48

PnL

-$17.36

Record

53%

887-786 (1673)

Both legs:

Down$90.6472.8¢+$33.84

Up$51.232¢-$51.2

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$105.28

Value

$147.35

PnL

+$42.08

Record

31%

302-677 (979)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$136.11

Value

$110.74

PnL

-$25.38

Record

53%

4053-3525 (7578)

Both legs:

Down$69.4962.8¢+$41.24

Up$66.6247.8¢-$66.62

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$103.44

Value

$121.27

PnL

+$17.83

Record

49%

3193-3306 (6499)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$76.9

Value

$105.86

PnL

+$28.96

Record

74%

577-199 (776)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$112.03

Value

$107.35

PnL

-$4.68

Record

65%

1431-763 (2194)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$97.3

Value

$95.79

PnL

-$1.51

Record

61%

402-260 (662)

Papeasy

Down

Invested

$72.12

Value

$113.62

PnL

+$41.49

Record

50%

3375-3322 (6697)

OhioAI<$100

Down

Invested

$83.27

Value

$87.26

PnL

+$3.99

Record

47%

244-274 (518)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$52.97

Value

$103

PnL

+$50.04

Record

52%

329-308 (637)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$74.62

Value

$69

PnL

-$5.62

Record

48%

779-832 (1611)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$147

Value

—

PnL

-$147

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$39.25

Value

$50

PnL

+$10.75

Record

45%

772-956 (1728)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 29 top traders (66%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7a481712...60102f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794389700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Down — $572.13

+$92.44

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$170.61

bosona

Down — $376.05

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Up — $0

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $175.32

-$10.86

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