Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 84%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

$524.32

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 31 top traders (84%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares22,208

Combined PnL+$4.6K

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares15,352

Combined PnL$-4.1K

Down — 84%Up — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO fossildiamond577	Downavg 67.5¢	$6.9K	$10.3K	+$3.3K	58% 26-19 (45)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$520	18% 159-714 (873)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.4¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$433.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.6¢	$953.86	—	-$953.86
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 51.9¢	$978.5	$1.9K	+$907.93	46% 738-880 (1618)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 71.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$57.97	53% 863-777 (1640)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 71.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$89.22	45% 393-474 (867)
ST stepahead	Downavg 67.4¢	$986.86	$1.0K	+$34.65	54% 3630-3043 (6673)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 76.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$1.28	52% 3492-3247 (6739)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 63.8¢	$1.0K	$967.57	-$19.25	44% 484-613 (1097)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.2¢	$368.88	—	-$368.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.8¢	$617.35	$967.57	+$349.63
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 71.8¢	$929.39	$941.82	+$12.43	23% 320-1052 (1372)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 75.7¢	$758.52	$707.81	-$50.71	41% 280-403 (683)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 65.3¢	$630.58	$707	+$76.42	53% 320-289 (609)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 69.9¢	$526.4	$547.85	+$21.45	59% 404-280 (684)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.9¢	$382.8	$547.85	+$165.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.5¢	$143.6	—	-$143.6
BO bosona	Downavg 71.1¢	$604.87	$521.03	-$64.34	50% 3707-3742 (7449)
AL almach	Downavg 74¢	$564.92	$432.08	-$88.7	44% 478-598 (1076)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 48.4¢	$222.8	$460	+$237.2	48% 1247-1333 (2580)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 74.7¢	$241.31	$259.33	+$18.01	41% 299-427 (726)
PB PBot-5ARB<$100	Downavg 71.2¢	$184.38	$143.45	-$40.93	48% 456-499 (955)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.2¢	$102.15	$143.45	+$41.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.1¢	$82.22	—	-$82.22
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$154.08	$140	-$14.08	31% 297-670 (967)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.4¢	$99.95	$140	+$40.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.6¢	$54.13	—	-$54.13
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 72.1¢	$159.23	$168.58	+$9.35	49% 363-382 (745)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Upavg 26.2¢	$138.37	$84.5	-$53.87	52% 325-298 (623)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.2¢	$74.99	—	-$74.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$63.38	$84.5	+$21.13
AS asdaefef	Downavg 85¢	$113.57	$114.57	+$1.36	65% 1407-747 (2154)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 69.8¢	$103.57	$110.35	+$9.27	49% 3173-3283 (6456)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 79.5¢	$103.93	$100	-$0.91	54% 4047-3517 (7564)
PL ply-pm4	Downavg 77.2¢	$123.25	$93.48	-$23.33	12% 44-318 (362)
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$98.43	$90.75	-$7.68	47% 238-266 (504)

fossildiamond577

Down

Invested

$6,943.45

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

58%

26-19 (45)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,360.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$520

Record

18%

159-714 (873)

Both legs:

Down$1,406.9376.4¢+$433.86

Up$953.8626.6¢-$953.86

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$978.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$907.93

Record

46%

738-880 (1618)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,465.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$57.97

Record

53%

863-777 (1640)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,359.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$89.22

Record

45%

393-474 (867)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$986.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$34.65

Record

54%

3630-3043 (6673)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$1,006.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.28

Record

52%

3492-3247 (6739)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,018.69

Value

$967.57

PnL

-$19.25

Record

44%

484-613 (1097)

Both legs:

Up$368.8836.2¢-$368.88

Down$617.3563.8¢+$349.63

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$929.39

Value

$941.82

PnL

+$12.43

Record

23%

320-1052 (1372)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$758.52

Value

$707.81

PnL

-$50.71

Record

41%

280-403 (683)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$630.58

Value

$707

PnL

+$76.42

Record

53%

320-289 (609)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$526.4

Value

$547.85

PnL

+$21.45

Record

59%

404-280 (684)

Both legs:

Down$382.869.9¢+$165.05

Up$143.628.5¢-$143.6

bosona

Down

Invested

$604.87

Value

$521.03

PnL

-$64.34

Record

50%

3707-3742 (7449)

almach

Down

Invested

$564.92

Value

$432.08

PnL

-$88.7

Record

44%

478-598 (1076)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$222.8

Value

$460

PnL

+$237.2

Record

48%

1247-1333 (2580)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$241.31

Value

$259.33

PnL

+$18.01

Record

41%

299-427 (726)

PBot-5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$184.38

Value

$143.45

PnL

-$40.93

Record

48%

456-499 (955)

Both legs:

Down$102.1571.2¢+$41.3

Up$82.2239.1¢-$82.22

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$154.08

Value

$140

PnL

-$14.08

Record

31%

297-670 (967)

Both legs:

Down$99.9571.4¢+$40.05

Up$54.1327.6¢-$54.13

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$159.23

Value

$168.58

PnL

+$9.35

Record

49%

363-382 (745)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Invested

$138.37

Value

$84.5

PnL

-$53.87

Record

52%

325-298 (623)

Both legs:

Invested

$113.57

Value

$114.57

PnL

+$1.36

Record

65%

1407-747 (2154)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$103.57

Value

$110.35

PnL

+$9.27

Record

49%

3173-3283 (6456)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$103.93

Value

$100

PnL

-$0.91

Record

54%

4047-3517 (7564)

ply-pm4

Down

Invested

$123.25

Value

$93.48

PnL

-$23.33

Record

12%

44-318 (362)

OhioAI<$100

Down

Invested

$98.43

Value

$90.75

PnL

-$7.68

Record

47%

238-266 (504)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 31 top traders (84%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb673d7d5...4de7c3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794386700

Traders in this Market

fossildiamond577

Down — $10.3K

+$3.3K

Atomforge

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$520

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.9K

+$907.93

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $1.5K

+$57.97

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.4K

+$89.22

stepahead

Down — $1.0K

+$34.65

blue.birds

Down — $1.0K

+$1.28

mo-money

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$19.25

ply-pm0

Down — $941.82

+$12.43

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $707.81

-$50.71

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