Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
40
Up 45%
1 arb excluded
$8.0K
$-10.9K
Smart Money Signal
18 of 40 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AtomforgeCTR | Upavg 70.4¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.8K | 18% 153-712 (865) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 63.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$27.55 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 50.7¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 54% 3622-3038 (6660) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 58.9¢ | $1.1K | $973.74 | -$92.44 | 41% 273-400 (673) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 54.7¢ | $968.71 | — | -$968.71 | 53% 851-764 (1615) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 66.9¢ | $992.35 | $845.22 | -$147.13 | 23% 315-1047 (1362) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 48.2¢ | $588.88 | $793.15 | +$204.27 | 59% 401-273 (674) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 41.5¢ | $941.42 | — | -$941.42 | 45% 722-869 (1591) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 55.3¢ | $594.51 | — | -$594.51 | 44% 474-605 (1079) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 93.6¢ | $572.88 | $612 | +$39.12 | 56% 31-24 (55) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 57.5¢ | $550.06 | — | -$550.06 | 44% 468-591 (1059) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 69.4¢ | $509.07 | $559.94 | +$51.77 | 41% 292-424 (716) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 50.5¢ | $797.56 | — | -$797.56 | 45% 386-468 (854) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 62.7¢ | $499.97 | — | -$499.97 | 50% 3699-3735 (7434) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 48.5¢ | $358.45 | $577.41 | +$218.97 | 39% 458-724 (1182) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 57.8¢ | $254.03 | $223.21 | -$28.12 | 54% 4042-3512 (7554) |
0D 0x0dbd...fcd5 | Downavg 21¢ | $63 | $300 | +$237 | — |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 99¢ | $214.77 | $187 | -$27.77 | 62% 1585-980 (2565) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 67.2¢ | $170.77 | $181.92 | +$14.6 | 31% 292-665 (957) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 65.6¢ | $160.84 | $178.92 | +$18.08 | 49% 3158-3267 (6425) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Upavg 31.4¢ | $157.79 | — | -$146.52 | 53% 315-285 (600) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 62.5¢ | $159.03 | $154.11 | +$2.52 | 47% 232-262 (494) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 65¢ | $97.5 | $150 | +$52.5 | 75% 563-190 (753) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 89¢ | $164.05 | $148.06 | -$15.99 | 65% 1384-737 (2121) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 48.1¢ | $134.52 | $279.79 | +$145.27 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$1,794.6
Value
—
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
18%
153-712 (865)
Invested
$1,248.33
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$27.55
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Invested
$1,237.24
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
54%
3622-3038 (6660)
Invested
$1,070.53
Value
$973.74
PnL
-$92.44
Record
41%
273-400 (673)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$968.71
Value
—
PnL
-$968.71
Record
53%
851-764 (1615)
Invested
$992.35
Value
$845.22
PnL
-$147.13
Record
23%
315-1047 (1362)
Invested
$588.88
Value
$793.15
PnL
+$204.27
Record
59%
401-273 (674)
Invested
$941.42
Value
—
PnL
-$941.42
Record
45%
722-869 (1591)
Invested
$594.51
Value
—
PnL
-$594.51
Record
44%
474-605 (1079)
Invested
$572.88
Value
$612
PnL
+$39.12
Record
56%
31-24 (55)
Invested
$550.06
Value
—
PnL
-$550.06
Record
44%
468-591 (1059)
Invested
$509.07
Value
$559.94
PnL
+$51.77
Record
41%
292-424 (716)
Invested
$797.56
Value
—
PnL
-$797.56
Record
45%
386-468 (854)
Invested
$499.97
Value
—
PnL
-$499.97
Record
50%
3699-3735 (7434)
machinelearnedInvested
$358.45
Value
$577.41
PnL
+$218.97
Record
39%
458-724 (1182)
FairValueMachineInvested
$254.03
Value
$223.21
PnL
-$28.12
Record
54%
4042-3512 (7554)
Invested
$63
Value
$300
PnL
+$237
Record
—
Invested
$214.77
Value
$187
PnL
-$27.77
Record
62%
1585-980 (2565)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$170.77
Value
$181.92
PnL
+$14.6
Record
31%
292-665 (957)
Invested
$160.84
Value
$178.92
PnL
+$18.08
Record
49%
3158-3267 (6425)
Invested
$157.79
Value
—
PnL
-$146.52
Record
53%
315-285 (600)
OhioAIInvested
$159.03
Value
$154.11
PnL
+$2.52
Record
47%
232-262 (494)
BoneOhioInvested
$97.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$52.5
Record
75%
563-190 (753)
Invested
$164.05
Value
$148.06
PnL
-$15.99
Record
65%
1384-737 (2121)
Invested
$134.52
Value
$279.79
PnL
+$145.27
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Atomforge
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $1.2K
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $973.74
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $845.22
Bonereaper
Down — $793.15
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $612