Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Down 78%
1 arb excluded
$12.2K
$1.4K
Smart Money Signal
25 of 32 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 75% 563-190 (753) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 68.7¢ | $1.8K | $2.2K | +$411.82 | 59% 401-273 (674) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $730.62 | $738 | +$7.38 | 98% 1462-31 (1493) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $710.04 | $1.1K | +$385.88 | 45% 722-869 (1591) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.1¢ | $559.57 | $1.1K | +$536.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $150.48 | — | -$150.48 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 56.3¢ | $324.03 | $574.99 | +$250.96 | 44% 474-605 (1079) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 48.5¢ | $436.7 | $511.08 | +$74.38 | 41% 273-400 (673) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 53.5¢ | $448.92 | $484.19 | +$35.27 | 54% 3622-3038 (6660) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 52.6¢ | $256.31 | $420.5 | +$164.19 | 53% 315-285 (600) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 51.3¢ | $229.98 | $374.49 | +$144.51 | 45% 386-468 (854) |
AL almach | Downavg 55.4¢ | $380.83 | $687.02 | +$306.19 | 44% 468-591 (1059) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 65.7¢ | $253.73 | $233.98 | -$19.75 | 61% 392-247 (639) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 53.2¢ | $227.58 | $237 | +$38.81 | 53% 851-764 (1615) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 54¢ | $184.85 | $184.06 | -$0.79 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 49¢ | $123.07 | $163.19 | +$40.12 | 23% 315-1047 (1362) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 46.2¢ | $93.15 | $120.09 | +$32.69 | 41% 292-424 (716) |
BO bosona | Downavg 46.6¢ | $93.54 | $200.71 | +$107.16 | 50% 3699-3735 (7434) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 34.5¢ | $48.95 | $101.43 | +$52.48 | 49% 3158-3267 (6425) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 56.6¢ | $145.01 | — | -$136.48 | 49% 357-377 (734) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 80.1¢ | $55.58 | $69.38 | +$13.8 | 65% 1384-737 (2121) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 97¢ | $102.8 | $61.73 | -$41.07 | 52% 319-294 (613) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 47.8¢ | $81.18 | $61.41 | +$14.15 | 62% 1585-980 (2565) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 67.5¢ | $67.5 | — | -$67.5 | 48% 745-806 (1551) |
 OhioAICTR<$100 | Upavg 51.3¢ | $51.7 | — | -$51.7 | 47% 232-262 (494) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $31.2 | $40 | +$8.8 | 54% 4042-3512 (7554) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 41.4¢ | $10.41 | $25.14 | +$14.73 | 39% 547-873 (1420) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
75%
563-190 (753)
Invested
$1,777.84
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$411.82
Record
59%
401-273 (674)
Invested
$730.62
Value
$738
PnL
+$7.38
Record
98%
1462-31 (1493)
Invested
$710.04
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$385.88
Record
45%
722-869 (1591)
Both legs:
Invested
$324.03
Value
$574.99
PnL
+$250.96
Record
44%
474-605 (1079)
Invested
$436.7
Value
$511.08
PnL
+$74.38
Record
41%
273-400 (673)
Invested
$448.92
Value
$484.19
PnL
+$35.27
Record
54%
3622-3038 (6660)
Invested
$256.31
Value
$420.5
PnL
+$164.19
Record
53%
315-285 (600)
Invested
$229.98
Value
$374.49
PnL
+$144.51
Record
45%
386-468 (854)
Invested
$380.83
Value
$687.02
PnL
+$306.19
Record
44%
468-591 (1059)
Invested
$253.73
Value
$233.98
PnL
-$19.75
Record
61%
392-247 (639)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$227.58
Value
$237
PnL
+$38.81
Record
53%
851-764 (1615)
Invested
$184.85
Value
$184.06
PnL
-$0.79
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Invested
$123.07
Value
$163.19
PnL
+$40.12
Record
23%
315-1047 (1362)
Invested
$93.15
Value
$120.09
PnL
+$32.69
Record
41%
292-424 (716)
Invested
$93.54
Value
$200.71
PnL
+$107.16
Record
50%
3699-3735 (7434)
Invested
$48.95
Value
$101.43
PnL
+$52.48
Record
49%
3158-3267 (6425)
Invested
$145.01
Value
—
PnL
-$136.48
Record
49%
357-377 (734)
Invested
$55.58
Value
$69.38
PnL
+$13.8
Record
65%
1384-737 (2121)
Invested
$102.8
Value
$61.73
PnL
-$41.07
Record
52%
319-294 (613)
Invested
$81.18
Value
$61.41
PnL
+$14.15
Record
62%
1585-980 (2565)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$67.5
Value
—
PnL
-$67.5
Record
48%
745-806 (1551)
OhioAICTR<$100Invested
$51.7
Value
—
PnL
-$51.7
Record
47%
232-262 (494)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$31.2
Value
$40
PnL
+$8.8
Record
54%
4042-3512 (7554)
Invested
$10.41
Value
$25.14
PnL
+$14.73
Record
39%
547-873 (1420)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.2K
hoodquant
Down — $738
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Down — $574.99
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $511.08
stepahead
Down — $484.19
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Down — $420.5
CrouchPredictions
Down — $374.49
almach
Down — $687.02