Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Down 71%
4 arb excluded
$14.0K
$1.7K
Smart Money Signal
22 of 31 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Downavg 58.3¢ | $2.2K | $3.7K | +$1.6K | 21% 31-115 (146) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 93.5¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$76.21 | 59% 401-273 (674) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$8.02 | 45% 437-543 (980) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 57.1¢ | $990.03 | $1.7K | +$744.11 | 18% 153-712 (865) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 57.6¢ | $697.98 | $651.05 | -$46.93 | 54% 3622-3038 (6660) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $532.07 | $542.93 | +$10.86 | 98% 1462-31 (1493) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 68.5¢ | $446.63 | $420.95 | -$24.01 | 41% 273-400 (673) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 43.9¢ | $437.37 | $248.27 | -$189.1 | 45% 386-468 (854) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.9¢ | $280.03 | — | -$280.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.4¢ | $157.33 | $248.27 | +$90.93 | |
BO bosona | Downavg 63¢ | $293.75 | $339.16 | +$45.41 | 50% 3699-3735 (7434) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 45.9¢ | $278.56 | — | -$278.56 | 45% 722-869 (1591) |
AL almach | Downavg 56.7¢ | $207.49 | $298.25 | +$90.76 | 44% 468-591 (1059) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 66.5¢ | $348.61 | $291.65 | +$41.04 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 38¢ | $307.93 | — | -$307.93 | 53% 851-764 (1615) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 79¢ | $234.18 | $186.55 | -$47.63 | 23% 315-1047 (1362) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 51.1¢ | $209.04 | $169 | -$40.04 | 53% 315-285 (600) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $96.33 | $169 | +$72.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.1¢ | $112.71 | — | -$112.71 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Upavg 37.4¢ | $118.94 | $100 | -$18.94 | 52% 319-294 (613) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.4¢ | $68.94 | — | -$68.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $50 | $100 | +$50 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Upavg 43.7¢ | $101.26 | $80.76 | -$20.5 | 61% 392-247 (639) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.7¢ | $57.42 | — | -$57.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.3¢ | $43.84 | $80.76 | +$36.92 | |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $61.42 | $93.07 | +$31.65 | 44% 474-605 (1079) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $73.85 | $71.93 | -$0.21 | 62% 1585-980 (2565) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 94.7¢ | $69.56 | $66.47 | -$3.01 | 65% 1384-737 (2121) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $61.04 | $61.38 | +$8.89 | 54% 4042-3512 (7554) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $64.75 | $50 | -$14.75 | 31% 292-665 (957) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $52.08 | $61.53 | +$9.45 | 45% 744-919 (1663) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $51.49 | — | -$51.49 | 50% 3363-3311 (6674) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $44.2 | $65 | +$20.8 | 75% 563-190 (753) |
Invested
$2,175.65
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
21%
31-115 (146)
Invested
$2,565.4
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$76.21
Record
59%
401-273 (674)
Invested
$2,004.42
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$8.02
Record
45%
437-543 (980)
AtomforgeInvested
$990.03
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$744.11
Record
18%
153-712 (865)
Invested
$697.98
Value
$651.05
PnL
-$46.93
Record
54%
3622-3038 (6660)
Invested
$532.07
Value
$542.93
PnL
+$10.86
Record
98%
1462-31 (1493)
Invested
$446.63
Value
$420.95
PnL
-$24.01
Record
41%
273-400 (673)
Invested
$437.37
Value
$248.27
PnL
-$189.1
Record
45%
386-468 (854)
Both legs:
Invested
$293.75
Value
$339.16
PnL
+$45.41
Record
50%
3699-3735 (7434)
Invested
$278.56
Value
—
PnL
-$278.56
Record
45%
722-869 (1591)
Invested
$207.49
Value
$298.25
PnL
+$90.76
Record
44%
468-591 (1059)
Invested
$348.61
Value
$291.65
PnL
+$41.04
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$307.93
Value
—
PnL
-$307.93
Record
53%
851-764 (1615)
Invested
$234.18
Value
$186.55
PnL
-$47.63
Record
23%
315-1047 (1362)
Invested
$209.04
Value
$169
PnL
-$40.04
Record
53%
315-285 (600)
Both legs:
Invested
$118.94
Value
$100
PnL
-$18.94
Record
52%
319-294 (613)
Both legs:
Invested
$101.26
Value
$80.76
PnL
-$20.5
Record
61%
392-247 (639)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.42
Value
$93.07
PnL
+$31.65
Record
44%
474-605 (1079)
Invested
$73.85
Value
$71.93
PnL
-$0.21
Record
62%
1585-980 (2565)
Invested
$69.56
Value
$66.47
PnL
-$3.01
Record
65%
1384-737 (2121)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$61.04
Value
$61.38
PnL
+$8.89
Record
54%
4042-3512 (7554)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$64.75
Value
$50
PnL
-$14.75
Record
31%
292-665 (957)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$52.08
Value
$61.53
PnL
+$9.45
Record
45%
744-919 (1663)
Invested
$51.49
Value
—
PnL
-$51.49
Record
50%
3363-3311 (6674)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$44.2
Value
$65
PnL
+$20.8
Record
75%
563-190 (753)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Down — $3.7K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.6K
0x50f7
Down — $2.0K
Atomforge
Down — $1.7K
stepahead
Down — $651.05
hoodquant
Down — $542.93
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $420.95
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
Down — $339.16
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0