Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
34
Down 68%
4 arb excluded
$7.3K
$-2.2K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 34 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 74.7¢ | $794.13 | $769.35 | -$24.78 | 45% 386-468 (854) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.7¢ | $696.03 | $649.02 | -$47.02 | 54% 3622-3038 (6660) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 65.6¢ | $546.25 | $617.02 | +$70.77 | 44% 474-605 (1079) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $601.92 | $608 | +$6.08 | 98% 1462-31 (1493) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 75.6¢ | $582 | $600.61 | +$18.61 | 53% 851-764 (1615) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 66.5¢ | $491.92 | $582.17 | +$159.43 | 18% 153-712 (865) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 79.4¢ | $582.35 | $549.99 | -$32.35 | 23% 315-1047 (1362) |
BO bosona | Downavg 65¢ | $462.08 | $500 | +$37.92 | 50% 3699-3735 (7434) |
AL almach | Downavg 65¢ | $447.5 | $500 | +$52.5 | 44% 468-591 (1059) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 59.6¢ | $371.24 | $391.31 | +$20.07 | 53% 315-285 (600) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.6¢ | $233.31 | $391.31 | +$158 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.3¢ | $137.93 | — | -$137.93 | |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 78.4¢ | $398.42 | $385.09 | -$13.33 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 47.4¢ | $254.61 | — | -$254.61 | 45% 722-869 (1591) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 41.8¢ | $284.1 | $197.29 | -$86.81 | 59% 401-273 (674) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.3¢ | $128.88 | $197.29 | +$68.41 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.8¢ | $155.22 | — | -$155.22 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $175.48 | $169 | -$6.48 | 52% 319-294 (613) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65¢ | $109.85 | $169 | +$59.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.6¢ | $65.63 | — | -$65.63 | |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 89.2¢ | $120.78 | $129.46 | +$8.68 | 35% 390-738 (1128) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 75.9¢ | $155.73 | $109.78 | -$45.96 | 41% 273-400 (673) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.9¢ | $83.28 | $109.78 | +$26.49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.8¢ | $72.45 | — | -$72.45 | |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $106.62 | $107.7 | +$1.08 | 75% 563-190 (753) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 59.5¢ | $60.92 | $100 | +$39.08 | 45% 744-919 (1663) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 86.5¢ | $104.69 | $93.3 | -$11.39 | 62% 1585-980 (2565) |
PL ply-pm4<$100 | Downavg 82.6¢ | $81.04 | $67.92 | -$10.53 | 11% 41-316 (357) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $33.62 | $47.6 | +$13.98 | 38% 449-718 (1167) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.5¢ | $45.75 | — | -$45.75 | 45% 437-543 (980) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.1¢ | $47.03 | — | -$47.03 | 41% 292-424 (716) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 62.5¢ | $26.16 | $29.6 | +$3.44 | 47% 232-262 (494) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $51.6 | — | -$51.6 | 54% 4042-3512 (7554) |
Invested
$794.13
Value
$769.35
PnL
-$24.78
Record
45%
386-468 (854)
Invested
$696.03
Value
$649.02
PnL
-$47.02
Record
54%
3622-3038 (6660)
Invested
$546.25
Value
$617.02
PnL
+$70.77
Record
44%
474-605 (1079)
Invested
$601.92
Value
$608
PnL
+$6.08
Record
98%
1462-31 (1493)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$582
Value
$600.61
PnL
+$18.61
Record
53%
851-764 (1615)
AtomforgeInvested
$491.92
Value
$582.17
PnL
+$159.43
Record
18%
153-712 (865)
Invested
$582.35
Value
$549.99
PnL
-$32.35
Record
23%
315-1047 (1362)
Invested
$462.08
Value
$500
PnL
+$37.92
Record
50%
3699-3735 (7434)
Invested
$447.5
Value
$500
PnL
+$52.5
Record
44%
468-591 (1059)
Invested
$371.24
Value
$391.31
PnL
+$20.07
Record
53%
315-285 (600)
Both legs:
Invested
$398.42
Value
$385.09
PnL
-$13.33
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Invested
$254.61
Value
—
PnL
-$254.61
Record
45%
722-869 (1591)
Invested
$284.1
Value
$197.29
PnL
-$86.81
Record
59%
401-273 (674)
Both legs:
Invested
$175.48
Value
$169
PnL
-$6.48
Record
52%
319-294 (613)
Both legs:
pspspsps5Invested
$120.78
Value
$129.46
PnL
+$8.68
Record
35%
390-738 (1128)
Invested
$155.73
Value
$109.78
PnL
-$45.96
Record
41%
273-400 (673)
Both legs:
BoneOhioInvested
$106.62
Value
$107.7
PnL
+$1.08
Record
75%
563-190 (753)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$60.92
Value
$100
PnL
+$39.08
Record
45%
744-919 (1663)
Invested
$104.69
Value
$93.3
PnL
-$11.39
Record
62%
1585-980 (2565)
Invested
$81.04
Value
$67.92
PnL
-$10.53
Record
11%
41-316 (357)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$33.62
Value
$47.6
PnL
+$13.98
Record
38%
449-718 (1167)
Invested
$45.75
Value
—
PnL
-$45.75
Record
45%
437-543 (980)
Invested
$47.03
Value
—
PnL
-$47.03
Record
41%
292-424 (716)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$26.16
Value
$29.6
PnL
+$3.44
Record
47%
232-262 (494)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$51.6
Value
—
PnL
-$51.6
Record
54%
4042-3512 (7554)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Down — $769.35
stepahead
Down — $649.02
mo-money
Down — $617.02
hoodquant
Down — $608
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $600.61
Atomforge
Down — $582.17
ply-pm0
Down — $549.99
bosona
Down — $500
almach
Down — $500
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
ARBArbitrage — excluded