Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Up 44%
4 arb excluded
$18.0K
$-6.6K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 37 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Upavg 33.4¢ | $2.1K | $6.2K | +$4.1K | 21% 31-115 (146) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 79.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.5K | +$525.2 | 59% 401-273 (674) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Downavg 65¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | 18% 153-712 (865) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 58.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.7K | +$246.21 | 45% 386-468 (854) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 83.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$232.11 | 45% 722-869 (1591) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$18.92 | 98% 1462-31 (1493) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 63.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$34.53 | 44% 474-605 (1079) |
AL almach | Upavg 67.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$89.89 | 44% 468-591 (1059) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 54.3¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 23% 315-1047 (1362) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 61.7¢ | $862.6 | — | -$842.8 | 53% 851-764 (1615) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 76¢ | $896.49 | — | -$896.49 | 50% 3699-3735 (7434) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 64.5¢ | $880.86 | — | -$880.86 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 57¢ | $624.62 | — | -$624.62 | 54% 3622-3038 (6660) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 38.6¢ | $472.73 | $666.74 | +$194.01 | 41% 273-400 (673) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Downavg 37¢ | $525.8 | — | -$525.8 | 53% 315-285 (600) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 43.1¢ | $332.72 | $495.44 | +$162.72 | 52% 319-294 (613) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 52.7¢ | $240.76 | — | -$226.66 | 41% 292-424 (716) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 28.9¢ | $107.48 | $187.58 | +$92.68 | 47% 445-493 (938) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 74.8¢ | $146.36 | $174.49 | +$28.13 | 65% 1384-737 (2121) |
 BoneOhioARB<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $172.49 | $149.99 | -$22.51 | 75% 563-190 (753) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48¢ | $71.99 | $149.99 | +$77.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67¢ | $100.5 | — | -$100.5 | |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 62.8¢ | $124.14 | — | -$120.54 | 54% 4042-3512 (7554) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 54.9¢ | $109.41 | $116.99 | +$7.58 | 47% 232-262 (494) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39¢ | $45.59 | $116.99 | +$71.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.9¢ | $63.82 | — | -$63.82 | |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $111.96 | $116.92 | +$4.96 | 35% 390-738 (1128) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 29.7¢ | $64.81 | $218.36 | +$153.56 | 50% 3363-3311 (6674) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 44.5¢ | $146.42 | $108.31 | +$3.99 | 62% 1585-980 (2565) |
Invested
$2,060.42
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$4.1K
Record
21%
31-115 (146)
Invested
$2,013.48
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$525.2
Record
59%
401-273 (674)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$1,902.31
Value
—
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
18%
153-712 (865)
Invested
$1,443.05
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$246.21
Record
45%
386-468 (854)
Invested
$1,150.84
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$232.11
Record
45%
722-869 (1591)
Invested
$1,269.08
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$18.92
Record
98%
1462-31 (1493)
Invested
$1,284.46
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$34.53
Record
44%
474-605 (1079)
Invested
$1,252.28
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$89.89
Record
44%
468-591 (1059)
Invested
$1,020.33
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
23%
315-1047 (1362)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$862.6
Value
—
PnL
-$842.8
Record
53%
851-764 (1615)
Invested
$896.49
Value
—
PnL
-$896.49
Record
50%
3699-3735 (7434)
Invested
$880.86
Value
—
PnL
-$880.86
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Invested
$624.62
Value
—
PnL
-$624.62
Record
54%
3622-3038 (6660)
Invested
$472.73
Value
$666.74
PnL
+$194.01
Record
41%
273-400 (673)
Invested
$525.8
Value
—
PnL
-$525.8
Record
53%
315-285 (600)
Invested
$332.72
Value
$495.44
PnL
+$162.72
Record
52%
319-294 (613)
Invested
$240.76
Value
—
PnL
-$226.66
Record
41%
292-424 (716)
Invested
$107.48
Value
$187.58
PnL
+$92.68
Record
47%
445-493 (938)
Invested
$146.36
Value
$174.49
PnL
+$28.13
Record
65%
1384-737 (2121)
BoneOhioARB<$100Invested
$172.49
Value
$149.99
PnL
-$22.51
Record
75%
563-190 (753)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$124.14
Value
—
PnL
-$120.54
Record
54%
4042-3512 (7554)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$109.41
Value
$116.99
PnL
+$7.58
Record
47%
232-262 (494)
Both legs:
pspspsps5Invested
$111.96
Value
$116.92
PnL
+$4.96
Record
35%
390-738 (1128)
Invested
$64.81
Value
$218.36
PnL
+$153.56
Record
50%
3363-3311 (6674)
Invested
$146.42
Value
$108.31
PnL
+$3.99
Record
62%
1585-980 (2565)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Up — $6.2K
Bonereaper
Up — $2.5K
Atomforge
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.7K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $1.4K
hoodquant
Up — $1.3K
mo-money
Up — $1.2K
almach
Up — $1.2K
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0