Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Up 73%
1 arb excluded
$19.0K
-$64.07
Smart Money Signal
27 of 37 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | +$5.37 | 45% 437-543 (980) |
BO borderlocket | Upavg 54¢ | $2.4K | $4.4K | +$2.0K | 21% 31-115 (146) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 96¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$58.29 | 59% 401-273 (674) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 61.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$27.83 | 45% 386-468 (854) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 61.7¢ | $954.03 | $983.28 | +$29.25 | 54% 3622-3038 (6660) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Downavg 39.1¢ | $1.4K | — | -$963.76 | 18% 153-712 (865) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 65.8¢ | $872.85 | $856.66 | -$16.2 | 44% 474-605 (1079) |
AL almach | Upavg 67¢ | $627.65 | $634.35 | +$6.7 | 44% 468-591 (1059) |
BO bosona | Upavg 69.7¢ | $566.12 | $567.33 | +$1.21 | 50% 3699-3735 (7434) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 84.8¢ | $657.44 | $526.86 | -$130.59 | 53% 851-764 (1615) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 63.5¢ | $524.23 | $500.51 | -$23.72 | 23% 315-1047 (1362) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $456.15 | $460.76 | +$4.61 | 98% 1462-31 (1493) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 57.3¢ | $328.19 | $427.55 | +$99.36 | 53% 315-285 (600) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $272.39 | $379.27 | +$106.87 | 45% 722-869 (1591) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 69.5¢ | $370.03 | $310.4 | -$59.63 | 41% 273-400 (673) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 80.8¢ | $172.88 | $152.3 | -$18.48 | 41% 292-424 (716) |
PL ply-pm4 | Upavg 66.1¢ | $131.91 | $131.65 | +$8.6 | 11% 41-316 (357) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $127.09 | $108.81 | -$18.29 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.1¢ | $57.77 | $108.81 | +$51.04 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31¢ | $69.32 | — | -$69.32 | |
38 38791873984189 | Upavg 49¢ | $98 | $200 | +$102 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 67.3¢ | $73.5 | $83.12 | +$20.82 | 48% 745-806 (1551) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $78 | $75 | -$3 | 50% 3363-3311 (6674) |
 Bossgirl<$100 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $61.53 | $93 | +$31.47 | 52% 22-20 (42) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 60.5¢ | $63.2 | $80 | +$16.8 | 51% 131-127 (258) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $52.5 | $49.99 | -$2.5 | 54% 4042-3512 (7554) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 96.9¢ | $25.78 | $26.61 | +$0.83 | 39% 458-724 (1182) |
Invested
$5,363.58
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$5.37
Record
45%
437-543 (980)
Invested
$2,394.97
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
21%
31-115 (146)
Invested
$1,476.01
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$58.29
Record
59%
401-273 (674)
Invested
$1,077.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$27.83
Record
45%
386-468 (854)
Invested
$954.03
Value
$983.28
PnL
+$29.25
Record
54%
3622-3038 (6660)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$1,418.69
Value
—
PnL
-$963.76
Record
18%
153-712 (865)
Invested
$872.85
Value
$856.66
PnL
-$16.2
Record
44%
474-605 (1079)
Invested
$627.65
Value
$634.35
PnL
+$6.7
Record
44%
468-591 (1059)
Invested
$566.12
Value
$567.33
PnL
+$1.21
Record
50%
3699-3735 (7434)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$657.44
Value
$526.86
PnL
-$130.59
Record
53%
851-764 (1615)
Invested
$524.23
Value
$500.51
PnL
-$23.72
Record
23%
315-1047 (1362)
Invested
$456.15
Value
$460.76
PnL
+$4.61
Record
98%
1462-31 (1493)
Invested
$328.19
Value
$427.55
PnL
+$99.36
Record
53%
315-285 (600)
Invested
$272.39
Value
$379.27
PnL
+$106.87
Record
45%
722-869 (1591)
Invested
$370.03
Value
$310.4
PnL
-$59.63
Record
41%
273-400 (673)
Invested
$172.88
Value
$152.3
PnL
-$18.48
Record
41%
292-424 (716)
Invested
$131.91
Value
$131.65
PnL
+$8.6
Record
11%
41-316 (357)
Invested
$127.09
Value
$108.81
PnL
-$18.29
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Both legs:
Invested
$98
Value
$200
PnL
+$102
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
ohioism<$100Invested
$73.5
Value
$83.12
PnL
+$20.82
Record
48%
745-806 (1551)
Invested
$78
Value
$75
PnL
-$3
Record
50%
3363-3311 (6674)
Bossgirl<$100Invested
$61.53
Value
$93
PnL
+$31.47
Record
52%
22-20 (42)
Invested
$63.2
Value
$80
PnL
+$16.8
Record
51%
131-127 (258)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$52.5
Value
$49.99
PnL
-$2.5
Record
54%
4042-3512 (7554)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$25.78
Value
$26.61
PnL
+$0.83
Record
39%
458-724 (1182)