Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
39
Down 72%
3 arb excluded
$25.8K
$6.0K
Smart Money Signal
28 of 39 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Downavg 51.7¢ | $5.6K | $10.8K | +$5.2K | 21% 31-115 (146) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 66¢ | $1.3K | $1.9K | +$559.67 | 56% 31-24 (55) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.7K | +$468.52 | 45% 722-869 (1591) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 50.2¢ | $1.2K | $2.2K | +$1.1K | 18% 153-712 (865) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 68.6¢ | $1.2K | $905.57 | -$299.46 | 59% 401-273 (674) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 59.3¢ | $820.93 | $833.69 | +$12.76 | 44% 474-605 (1079) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $760.32 | $768 | +$7.68 | 98% 1462-31 (1493) |
AL almach | Downavg 60.3¢ | $747.07 | $711.7 | -$35.37 | 44% 468-591 (1059) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 74.3¢ | $787.33 | $700.33 | -$59.02 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
BO bosona | Downavg 60.9¢ | $734.68 | $698.35 | -$36.33 | 50% 3699-3735 (7434) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $1.0K | $625.51 | -$318.6 | 23% 315-1047 (1362) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 61.7¢ | $501.27 | $459.35 | -$24.57 | 53% 851-764 (1615) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 67.3¢ | $461.6 | $358.5 | -$103.1 | 41% 273-400 (673) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 73.9¢ | $515.53 | $364.31 | -$151.22 | 53% 315-285 (600) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $446.94 | $379.43 | -$67.51 | 39% 458-724 (1182) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72¢ | $273.19 | $379.43 | +$106.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.5¢ | $173.75 | — | -$173.75 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 45.9¢ | $513.66 | $264.28 | -$249.38 | 45% 386-468 (854) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.7¢ | $192.14 | $264.28 | +$72.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.9¢ | $321.52 | — | -$321.52 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 74.4¢ | $343.65 | $302.26 | -$40.55 | 41% 292-424 (716) |
 ohioism | Downavg 70.7¢ | $210.85 | $219.29 | +$8.43 | 48% 745-806 (1551) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 77.2¢ | $258.18 | $214.38 | -$5.23 | 62% 1585-980 (2565) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $234.42 | $153.06 | -$81.35 | 54% 3622-3038 (6660) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.3¢ | $146.14 | — | -$146.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.7¢ | $88.28 | $153.06 | +$64.79 | |
PL ply-pm4 | Downavg 78.3¢ | $162.76 | $207.92 | +$45.16 | 11% 41-316 (357) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 87.3¢ | $214.19 | $178.38 | -$35.81 | 65% 1384-737 (2121) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 75.5¢ | $134.8 | $170.5 | +$35.7 | 49% 357-377 (734) |
 Bossgirl | Downavg 59.5¢ | $88.72 | $149 | +$60.28 | 52% 22-20 (42) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 49¢ | $122.23 | $200 | +$77.77 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
Invested
$5,604.32
Value
$10.8K
PnL
+$5.2K
Record
21%
31-115 (146)
Invested
$1,342.33
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$559.67
Record
56%
31-24 (55)
Invested
$1,184.57
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$468.52
Record
45%
722-869 (1591)
AtomforgeInvested
$1,155.75
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
18%
153-712 (865)
Invested
$1,205.02
Value
$905.57
PnL
-$299.46
Record
59%
401-273 (674)
Invested
$820.93
Value
$833.69
PnL
+$12.76
Record
44%
474-605 (1079)
Invested
$760.32
Value
$768
PnL
+$7.68
Record
98%
1462-31 (1493)
Invested
$747.07
Value
$711.7
PnL
-$35.37
Record
44%
468-591 (1059)
Invested
$787.33
Value
$700.33
PnL
-$59.02
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Invested
$734.68
Value
$698.35
PnL
-$36.33
Record
50%
3699-3735 (7434)
Invested
$1,037.46
Value
$625.51
PnL
-$318.6
Record
23%
315-1047 (1362)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$501.27
Value
$459.35
PnL
-$24.57
Record
53%
851-764 (1615)
Invested
$461.6
Value
$358.5
PnL
-$103.1
Record
41%
273-400 (673)
Invested
$515.53
Value
$364.31
PnL
-$151.22
Record
53%
315-285 (600)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$446.94
Value
$379.43
PnL
-$67.51
Record
39%
458-724 (1182)
Both legs:
Invested
$513.66
Value
$264.28
PnL
-$249.38
Record
45%
386-468 (854)
Both legs:
Invested
$343.65
Value
$302.26
PnL
-$40.55
Record
41%
292-424 (716)
ohioismInvested
$210.85
Value
$219.29
PnL
+$8.43
Record
48%
745-806 (1551)
Invested
$258.18
Value
$214.38
PnL
-$5.23
Record
62%
1585-980 (2565)
Invested
$234.42
Value
$153.06
PnL
-$81.35
Record
54%
3622-3038 (6660)
Both legs:
Invested
$162.76
Value
$207.92
PnL
+$45.16
Record
11%
41-316 (357)
Invested
$214.19
Value
$178.38
PnL
-$35.81
Record
65%
1384-737 (2121)
Invested
$134.8
Value
$170.5
PnL
+$35.7
Record
49%
357-377 (734)
BossgirlInvested
$88.72
Value
$149
PnL
+$60.28
Record
52%
22-20 (42)
Invested
$122.23
Value
$200
PnL
+$77.77
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Down — $10.8K
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $1.9K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.7K
Atomforge
Down — $2.2K
Bonereaper
Down — $905.57
mo-money
Down — $833.69
hoodquant
Down — $768
almach
Down — $711.7
blue.birds
Down — $700.33
bosona
Down — $698.35