Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Up 78%
2 arb excluded
$11.8K
$-3.9K
Smart Money Signal
29 of 37 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.03 | 45% 437-543 (980) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 91¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$118.11 | 59% 401-273 (674) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 73.3¢ | $852.68 | $940.08 | +$87.4 | 53% 851-764 (1615) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 65.4¢ | $497.89 | $630.76 | +$132.87 | 23% 315-1047 (1362) |
BO bosona | Upavg 66¢ | $393.2 | $500 | +$106.8 | 50% 3699-3735 (7434) |
AL almach | Upavg 66¢ | $359.73 | $500 | +$140.27 | 44% 468-591 (1059) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 60.3¢ | $417.45 | $567.24 | +$149.79 | 45% 386-468 (854) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 92.3¢ | $380.23 | $411.98 | +$31.75 | 98% 1462-31 (1493) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 59¢ | $265.13 | $348.99 | +$83.85 | 54% 3622-3038 (6660) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $327.99 | $225 | -$102.99 | 39% 458-724 (1182) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45¢ | $180.24 | — | -$180.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.7¢ | $147.75 | $225 | +$77.25 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 74.2¢ | $344.21 | $264.01 | -$80.2 | 41% 273-400 (673) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72.9¢ | $312.57 | $212.46 | -$52.61 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 49.3¢ | $138.61 | $281.28 | +$142.67 | 45% 722-869 (1591) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 79.4¢ | $162.96 | $145.13 | -$15.84 | 41% 292-424 (716) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $156.47 | $142.24 | -$14.23 | 44% 474-605 (1079) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66¢ | $93.88 | $142.24 | +$48.36 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $62.59 | — | -$62.59 | |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 76.8¢ | $101.75 | $132.5 | +$30.75 | 38% 449-718 (1167) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 69.8¢ | $83.72 | $120 | +$36.28 | 47% 445-493 (938) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 71.8¢ | $62.13 | $86.52 | +$24.39 | 35% 390-738 (1128) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 68.2¢ | $42.01 | $61.56 | +$19.55 | 65% 1384-737 (2121) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 64.9¢ | $48.65 | $75 | +$26.35 | 48% 745-806 (1551) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $48.75 | $75 | +$26.25 | 50% 3363-3311 (6674) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 66.9¢ | $49.35 | $71.39 | +$22.04 | 47% 232-262 (494) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 40.8¢ | $91.8 | — | -$85.97 | 49% 357-377 (734) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $40.26 | $50 | +$9.74 | 49% 3158-3267 (6425) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $25.6 | $40 | +$14.4 | 51% 131-127 (258) |
Invested
$3,004.98
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.03
Record
45%
437-543 (980)
Invested
$2,653.7
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$118.11
Record
59%
401-273 (674)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$852.68
Value
$940.08
PnL
+$87.4
Record
53%
851-764 (1615)
Invested
$497.89
Value
$630.76
PnL
+$132.87
Record
23%
315-1047 (1362)
Invested
$393.2
Value
$500
PnL
+$106.8
Record
50%
3699-3735 (7434)
Invested
$359.73
Value
$500
PnL
+$140.27
Record
44%
468-591 (1059)
Invested
$417.45
Value
$567.24
PnL
+$149.79
Record
45%
386-468 (854)
Invested
$380.23
Value
$411.98
PnL
+$31.75
Record
98%
1462-31 (1493)
Invested
$265.13
Value
$348.99
PnL
+$83.85
Record
54%
3622-3038 (6660)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$327.99
Value
$225
PnL
-$102.99
Record
39%
458-724 (1182)
Both legs:
Invested
$344.21
Value
$264.01
PnL
-$80.2
Record
41%
273-400 (673)
Invested
$312.57
Value
$212.46
PnL
-$52.61
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Invested
$138.61
Value
$281.28
PnL
+$142.67
Record
45%
722-869 (1591)
Invested
$162.96
Value
$145.13
PnL
-$15.84
Record
41%
292-424 (716)
Invested
$156.47
Value
$142.24
PnL
-$14.23
Record
44%
474-605 (1079)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$101.75
Value
$132.5
PnL
+$30.75
Record
38%
449-718 (1167)
Invested
$83.72
Value
$120
PnL
+$36.28
Record
47%
445-493 (938)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$62.13
Value
$86.52
PnL
+$24.39
Record
35%
390-738 (1128)
Invested
$42.01
Value
$61.56
PnL
+$19.55
Record
65%
1384-737 (2121)
ohioism<$100Invested
$48.65
Value
$75
PnL
+$26.35
Record
48%
745-806 (1551)
Invested
$48.75
Value
$75
PnL
+$26.25
Record
50%
3363-3311 (6674)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$49.35
Value
$71.39
PnL
+$22.04
Record
47%
232-262 (494)
Invested
$91.8
Value
—
PnL
-$85.97
Record
49%
357-377 (734)
Invested
$40.26
Value
$50
PnL
+$9.74
Record
49%
3158-3267 (6425)
Invested
$25.6
Value
$40
PnL
+$14.4
Record
51%
131-127 (258)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
Bonereaper
Up — $2.8K
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $940.08
ply-pm0
Up — $630.76
bosona
Up — $500
almach
Up — $500
CrouchPredictions
Up — $567.24
hoodquant
Up — $411.98
stepahead
Up — $348.99
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded