Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 75%
3 arb excluded
$4.3K
$221.27
Smart Money Signal
18 of 24 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 70.7¢ | $453.08 | $459.96 | +$6.88 | 23% 315-1047 (1362) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 71.7¢ | $450.91 | $628.51 | +$177.6 | 44% 474-605 (1079) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 66.4¢ | $480.25 | $410.76 | -$64.89 | 41% 273-400 (673) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 81.9¢ | $402.03 | $370.35 | -$31.68 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 71.8¢ | $268.85 | $350.1 | +$81.25 | 61% 392-247 (639) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 54.2¢ | $234.7 | $331.05 | +$96.35 | 39% 458-724 (1182) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 56.2¢ | $290.99 | $268.65 | -$22.34 | 54% 3622-3038 (6660) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 41.9¢ | $304.2 | $162.93 | -$141.27 | 59% 401-273 (674) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.5¢ | $96.96 | $162.93 | +$65.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.9¢ | $207.25 | — | -$207.25 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $219.89 | $155.32 | -$64.56 | 41% 292-424 (716) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.1¢ | $111.92 | $155.32 | +$43.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.9¢ | $107.97 | — | -$107.97 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 97¢ | $166.47 | $169 | +$2.53 | 53% 315-285 (600) |
AL almach | Downavg 64.1¢ | $169.15 | $260.51 | +$91.37 | 44% 468-591 (1059) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $147.36 | $165.62 | +$18.25 | 50% 3699-3735 (7434) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67¢ | $110.96 | $165.62 | +$54.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52¢ | $36.4 | — | -$36.4 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 78.5¢ | $161.5 | $126.35 | -$35.15 | 54% 4042-3512 (7554) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 71.3¢ | $105.18 | $147.6 | +$42.42 | 45% 744-919 (1663) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $83.27 | $93.99 | +$18.42 | 62% 1585-980 (2565) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $56.21 | $80 | +$25.44 | 31% 292-665 (957) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 81.3¢ | $77.01 | $69.99 | -$7.02 | 49% 3158-3267 (6425) |
 OhioAICTR<$100 | Upavg 37.8¢ | $57.05 | — | -$57.05 | 47% 232-262 (494) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.1¢ | $74.52 | — | -$74.52 | 52% 319-294 (613) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $19.85 | — | -$19.85 | 45% 722-869 (1591) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 54.3¢ | $16.85 | $31.03 | +$14.18 | 48% 745-806 (1551) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $24.1 | — | -$24.1 | 49% 357-377 (734) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $12.99 | $19.99 | +$7 | 47% 445-493 (938) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.1¢ | $15.6 | — | -$15.6 | 57% 4217-3173 (7390) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $5 | $7.69 | +$2.69 | 39% 547-873 (1420) |
Invested
$453.08
Value
$459.96
PnL
+$6.88
Record
23%
315-1047 (1362)
Invested
$450.91
Value
$628.51
PnL
+$177.6
Record
44%
474-605 (1079)
Invested
$480.25
Value
$410.76
PnL
-$64.89
Record
41%
273-400 (673)
Invested
$402.03
Value
$370.35
PnL
-$31.68
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Invested
$268.85
Value
$350.1
PnL
+$81.25
Record
61%
392-247 (639)
machinelearnedInvested
$234.7
Value
$331.05
PnL
+$96.35
Record
39%
458-724 (1182)
Invested
$290.99
Value
$268.65
PnL
-$22.34
Record
54%
3622-3038 (6660)
Invested
$304.2
Value
$162.93
PnL
-$141.27
Record
59%
401-273 (674)
Both legs:
Invested
$219.89
Value
$155.32
PnL
-$64.56
Record
41%
292-424 (716)
Both legs:
Invested
$166.47
Value
$169
PnL
+$2.53
Record
53%
315-285 (600)
Invested
$169.15
Value
$260.51
PnL
+$91.37
Record
44%
468-591 (1059)
Invested
$147.36
Value
$165.62
PnL
+$18.25
Record
50%
3699-3735 (7434)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$161.5
Value
$126.35
PnL
-$35.15
Record
54%
4042-3512 (7554)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$105.18
Value
$147.6
PnL
+$42.42
Record
45%
744-919 (1663)
Invested
$83.27
Value
$93.99
PnL
+$18.42
Record
62%
1585-980 (2565)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$56.21
Value
$80
PnL
+$25.44
Record
31%
292-665 (957)
Invested
$77.01
Value
$69.99
PnL
-$7.02
Record
49%
3158-3267 (6425)
OhioAICTR<$100Invested
$57.05
Value
—
PnL
-$57.05
Record
47%
232-262 (494)
Invested
$74.52
Value
—
PnL
-$74.52
Record
52%
319-294 (613)
Invested
$19.85
Value
—
PnL
-$19.85
Record
45%
722-869 (1591)
ohioism<$100Invested
$16.85
Value
$31.03
PnL
+$14.18
Record
48%
745-806 (1551)
Invested
$24.1
Value
—
PnL
-$24.1
Record
49%
357-377 (734)
Invested
$12.99
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$7
Record
47%
445-493 (938)
Invested
$15.6
Value
—
PnL
-$15.6
Record
57%
4217-3173 (7390)
Invested
$5
Value
$7.69
PnL
+$2.69
Record
39%
547-873 (1420)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm0
Down — $459.96
mo-money
Down — $628.51
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $410.76
blue.birds
Down — $370.35
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $350.1
machinelearned
Down — $331.05
stepahead
Down — $268.65
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Down — $169