Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
42
Up 46%
1 arb excluded
$14.5K
$-16.1K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 42 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 57.1¢ | $1.9K | $3.1K | +$1.1K | 45% 722-869 (1591) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 84.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$17.71 | 59% 401-273 (674) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 96¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$69.69 | 98% 1462-31 (1493) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 54.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$215.28 | 23% 315-1047 (1362) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 78.4¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.8K | 50% 3699-3735 (7434) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 60.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$39.03 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 49.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$54 | 41% 273-400 (673) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 78.3¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | 44% 474-605 (1079) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 91.7¢ | $962.28 | $1.0K | +$87.16 | 75% 563-190 (753) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 78.7¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 44% 468-591 (1059) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 54.2¢ | $452.94 | $829.1 | +$376.16 | 52% 319-294 (613) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 34¢ | $415.89 | — | -$367.06 | 41% 292-424 (716) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 57.1¢ | $302.55 | $409.44 | +$106.89 | 54% 3622-3038 (6660) |
PA Papeasy | Downavg 72.5¢ | $270.37 | $296.61 | +$26.24 | 50% 3363-3311 (6674) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Upavg 38.8¢ | $908.63 | — | -$865.55 | 18% 153-712 (865) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $114.92 | $182.92 | +$68.01 | 53% 315-285 (600) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54¢ | $98.77 | $182.92 | +$84.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 3.8¢ | $16.15 | — | -$16.15 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 44.2¢ | $172.22 | — | -$93.81 | 31% 292-665 (957) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 44.8¢ | $69.21 | $154.58 | +$85.37 | 38% 449-718 (1167) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 39.9¢ | $65.04 | $160 | +$94.96 | 47% 445-493 (938) |
 ohioism | Downavg 62.9¢ | $138.52 | $146.56 | +$20.44 | 48% 745-806 (1551) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 38.4¢ | $77.68 | $140.76 | +$63.08 | 45% 744-919 (1663) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 46¢ | $48.17 | $104.8 | +$56.63 | 35% 390-738 (1128) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 30.6¢ | $148.8 | — | -$81.22 | 54% 4042-3512 (7554) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 60.4¢ | $71.2 | $93.05 | +$21.85 | 39% 547-873 (1420) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $67.2 | $80 | +$12.8 | 51% 131-127 (258) |
Invested
$1,946.84
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
45%
722-869 (1591)
Invested
$2,269.13
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$17.71
Record
59%
401-273 (674)
Invested
$1,673.31
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$69.69
Record
98%
1462-31 (1493)
Invested
$1,154.06
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$215.28
Record
23%
315-1047 (1362)
Invested
$1,808.56
Value
—
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
50%
3699-3735 (7434)
Invested
$1,185.84
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$39.03
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Invested
$1,121.2
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$54
Record
41%
273-400 (673)
Invested
$1,557.15
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
44%
474-605 (1079)
BoneOhioInvested
$962.28
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$87.16
Record
75%
563-190 (753)
Invested
$1,412.95
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
44%
468-591 (1059)
Invested
$452.94
Value
$829.1
PnL
+$376.16
Record
52%
319-294 (613)
Invested
$415.89
Value
—
PnL
-$367.06
Record
41%
292-424 (716)
Invested
$302.55
Value
$409.44
PnL
+$106.89
Record
54%
3622-3038 (6660)
Invested
$270.37
Value
$296.61
PnL
+$26.24
Record
50%
3363-3311 (6674)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$908.63
Value
—
PnL
-$865.55
Record
18%
153-712 (865)
Invested
$114.92
Value
$182.92
PnL
+$68.01
Record
53%
315-285 (600)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$172.22
Value
—
PnL
-$93.81
Record
31%
292-665 (957)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$69.21
Value
$154.58
PnL
+$85.37
Record
38%
449-718 (1167)
Invested
$65.04
Value
$160
PnL
+$94.96
Record
47%
445-493 (938)
ohioismInvested
$138.52
Value
$146.56
PnL
+$20.44
Record
48%
745-806 (1551)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$77.68
Value
$140.76
PnL
+$63.08
Record
45%
744-919 (1663)
pspspsps5Invested
$48.17
Value
$104.8
PnL
+$56.63
Record
35%
390-738 (1128)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$148.8
Value
—
PnL
-$81.22
Record
54%
4042-3512 (7554)
Invested
$71.2
Value
$93.05
PnL
+$21.85
Record
39%
547-873 (1420)
Invested
$67.2
Value
$80
PnL
+$12.8
Record
51%
131-127 (258)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $3.1K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.2K
hoodquant
Down — $1.7K
ply-pm0
Down — $1.4K
bosona
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $1.2K
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
Down — $1.0K
almach
CTRUp — $0