Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Up 74%
3 arb excluded
$15.9K
-$454.64
Smart Money Signal
25 of 35 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 91.5¢ | $2.7K | $2.4K | -$252.81 | 45% 694-845 (1539) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 53.2¢ | $1.2K | $2.1K | +$813.86 | 16% 139-704 (843) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 84.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$6.18 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 89.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$61.42 | 60% 386-262 (648) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 89¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$166.59 | 60% 26-17 (43) |
AL almach | Upavg 69.9¢ | $1.0K | $962.69 | -$47.83 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 70.6¢ | $890.36 | $819.69 | -$70.67 | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 87.7¢ | $1.1K | $799.77 | -$309.94 | 23% 306-1030 (1336) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 83.1¢ | $782.65 | $642.44 | -$140.21 | 40% 260-387 (647) |
BO bosona | Upavg 71.3¢ | $611.38 | $651.35 | +$39.97 | 50% 3687-3712 (7399) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 54.1¢ | $278.34 | $140.66 | -$137.68 | 54% 3604-3021 (6625) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.1¢ | $216.61 | — | -$216.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.9¢ | $61.73 | $140.66 | +$78.93 | |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 38.5¢ | $324.3 | $199.99 | -$124.3 | 39% 447-703 (1150) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.5¢ | $105 | $199.99 | +$95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.5¢ | $219.3 | — | -$219.3 | |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 81.8¢ | $228.19 | $225 | -$3.19 | 45% 712-884 (1596) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 26.1¢ | $316.31 | — | -$316.31 | 40% 277-413 (690) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 53.8¢ | $232.4 | — | -$232.4 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
PL ply-pm4 | Upavg 74.4¢ | $130.32 | $175.11 | +$44.8 | 9% 32-308 (340) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 86.2¢ | $229.78 | $176.01 | -$53.77 | 52% 307-280 (587) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 77.5¢ | $153.48 | $171.51 | +$18.03 | 53% 4027-3501 (7528) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 41.5¢ | $65.1 | $156.86 | +$91.76 | 49% 3117-3227 (6344) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 63¢ | $135.38 | $155.87 | +$20.48 | 50% 3349-3300 (6649) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 95.8¢ | $157.68 | $144 | -$13.68 | 65% 1333-709 (2042) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 66.2¢ | $123.76 | $152.26 | +$28.5 | 30% 280-651 (931) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 72.9¢ | $110.11 | $105 | -$5.11 | 47% 220-249 (469) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 59.3¢ | $96.8 | $86.4 | -$10.4 | 49% 347-360 (707) |
0X 0x50f7CTR | Downavg 7.4¢ | $155.99 | — | -$155.99 | 45% 428-518 (946) |
Invested
$2,702.81
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$252.81
Record
45%
694-845 (1539)
AtomforgeInvested
$1,248.49
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$813.86
Record
16%
139-704 (843)
Invested
$1,928.77
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$6.18
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Invested
$1,712.45
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$61.42
Record
60%
386-262 (648)
Invested
$1,345.41
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$166.59
Record
60%
26-17 (43)
Invested
$1,010.52
Value
$962.69
PnL
-$47.83
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$890.36
Value
$819.69
PnL
-$70.67
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Invested
$1,110.48
Value
$799.77
PnL
-$309.94
Record
23%
306-1030 (1336)
Invested
$782.65
Value
$642.44
PnL
-$140.21
Record
40%
260-387 (647)
Invested
$611.38
Value
$651.35
PnL
+$39.97
Record
50%
3687-3712 (7399)
Invested
$278.34
Value
$140.66
PnL
-$137.68
Record
54%
3604-3021 (6625)
Both legs:
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$324.3
Value
$199.99
PnL
-$124.3
Record
39%
447-703 (1150)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$228.19
Value
$225
PnL
-$3.19
Record
45%
712-884 (1596)
Invested
$316.31
Value
—
PnL
-$316.31
Record
40%
277-413 (690)
Invested
$232.4
Value
—
PnL
-$232.4
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Invested
$130.32
Value
$175.11
PnL
+$44.8
Record
9%
32-308 (340)
Invested
$229.78
Value
$176.01
PnL
-$53.77
Record
52%
307-280 (587)
FairValueMachineInvested
$153.48
Value
$171.51
PnL
+$18.03
Record
53%
4027-3501 (7528)
Invested
$65.1
Value
$156.86
PnL
+$91.76
Record
49%
3117-3227 (6344)
Invested
$135.38
Value
$155.87
PnL
+$20.48
Record
50%
3349-3300 (6649)
Invested
$157.68
Value
$144
PnL
-$13.68
Record
65%
1333-709 (2042)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$123.76
Value
$152.26
PnL
+$28.5
Record
30%
280-651 (931)
OhioAIInvested
$110.11
Value
$105
PnL
-$5.11
Record
47%
220-249 (469)
Invested
$96.8
Value
$86.4
PnL
-$10.4
Record
49%
347-360 (707)
Invested
$155.99
Value
—
PnL
-$155.99
Record
45%
428-518 (946)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $2.4K
Atomforge
Up — $2.1K
blue.birds
Up — $1.9K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.8K
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Up — $1.5K
almach
Up — $962.69
mo-money
Up — $819.69
ply-pm0
Up — $799.77
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $642.44
bosona
Up — $651.35