Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
40
Up 70%
4 arb excluded
$23.4K
$-3.8K
Smart Money Signal
28 of 40 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Upavg 60¢ | $2.7K | $4.4K | +$1.8K | 18% 24-106 (130) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 88.4¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$74.93 | 60% 386-262 (648) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 64.6¢ | $2.1K | $3.2K | +$1.1K | 45% 694-845 (1539) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 60.3¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | -$211.79 | 16% 139-704 (843) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 62.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$273.86 | 23% 306-1030 (1336) |
AL almach | Upavg 55.1¢ | $970.64 | $999.98 | +$29.34 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
BO bosona | Upavg 50.3¢ | $843.15 | $980.11 | +$136.96 | 50% 3687-3712 (7399) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 61.1¢ | $935.26 | $956.09 | +$20.82 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 50.5¢ | $724.38 | $915.21 | +$190.84 | 40% 260-387 (647) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 59.1¢ | $740.66 | $946.23 | +$205.58 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 80.5¢ | $816.41 | $590 | -$208.79 | 60% 26-17 (43) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 55.6¢ | $511.14 | $553.44 | +$42.3 | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 56.1¢ | $361.43 | $384.88 | +$23.45 | 40% 277-413 (690) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 56.7¢ | $286.92 | $349 | +$62.08 | 54% 3604-3021 (6625) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.7¢ | $197.87 | $349 | +$151.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.3¢ | $89.05 | — | -$89.05 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 62.3¢ | $287.2 | $286.56 | -$0.64 | 30% 280-651 (931) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 62.7¢ | $215.97 | $260.07 | +$44.11 | 53% 4027-3501 (7528) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 58.8¢ | $190 | $240 | +$51.47 | 47% 423-477 (900) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 66.4¢ | $270.12 | $215.02 | -$55.11 | 50% 3349-3300 (6649) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 48.5¢ | $209.75 | — | -$209.75 | 39% 447-703 (1150) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 72.8¢ | $232.1 | $180.3 | -$51.8 | 49% 347-360 (707) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $181.99 | $159.99 | -$22 | 50% 120-118 (238) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.2¢ | $89.99 | $159.99 | +$70 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.5¢ | $92 | — | -$92 | |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 60.5¢ | $109.57 | $140.59 | +$42.96 | 37% 413-690 (1103) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $105.04 | $98.32 | -$6.73 | 61% 381-241 (622) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47¢ | $46.25 | $98.32 | +$52.07 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $58.79 | — | -$58.79 | |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 38.7¢ | $96.7 | $40 | -$56.7 | 45% 712-884 (1596) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.7¢ | $73.5 | — | -$73.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58¢ | $23.2 | $40 | +$16.8 | |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 59.6¢ | $66.99 | $86.9 | +$19.91 | 34% 362-713 (1075) |
Invested
$2,666
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
18%
24-106 (130)
Invested
$3,374.99
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$74.93
Record
60%
386-262 (648)
Invested
$2,090.39
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
45%
694-845 (1539)
AtomforgeInvested
$2,177.69
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$211.79
Record
16%
139-704 (843)
Invested
$1,222.61
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$273.86
Record
23%
306-1030 (1336)
Invested
$970.64
Value
$999.98
PnL
+$29.34
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$843.15
Value
$980.11
PnL
+$136.96
Record
50%
3687-3712 (7399)
Invested
$935.26
Value
$956.09
PnL
+$20.82
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Invested
$724.38
Value
$915.21
PnL
+$190.84
Record
40%
260-387 (647)
Invested
$740.66
Value
$946.23
PnL
+$205.58
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Invested
$816.41
Value
$590
PnL
-$208.79
Record
60%
26-17 (43)
Invested
$511.14
Value
$553.44
PnL
+$42.3
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Invested
$361.43
Value
$384.88
PnL
+$23.45
Record
40%
277-413 (690)
Invested
$286.92
Value
$349
PnL
+$62.08
Record
54%
3604-3021 (6625)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$287.2
Value
$286.56
PnL
-$0.64
Record
30%
280-651 (931)
FairValueMachineInvested
$215.97
Value
$260.07
PnL
+$44.11
Record
53%
4027-3501 (7528)
Invested
$190
Value
$240
PnL
+$51.47
Record
47%
423-477 (900)
Invested
$270.12
Value
$215.02
PnL
-$55.11
Record
50%
3349-3300 (6649)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$209.75
Value
—
PnL
-$209.75
Record
39%
447-703 (1150)
Invested
$232.1
Value
$180.3
PnL
-$51.8
Record
49%
347-360 (707)
Invested
$181.99
Value
$159.99
PnL
-$22
Record
50%
120-118 (238)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$109.57
Value
$140.59
PnL
+$42.96
Record
37%
413-690 (1103)
Invested
$105.04
Value
$98.32
PnL
-$6.73
Record
61%
381-241 (622)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$96.7
Value
$40
PnL
-$56.7
Record
45%
712-884 (1596)
Both legs:
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$66.99
Value
$86.9
PnL
+$19.91
Record
34%
362-713 (1075)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Up — $4.4K
Bonereaper
Up — $3.4K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $3.2K
Atomforge
Up — $2.0K
ply-pm0
Up — $1.5K
almach
Up — $999.98
bosona
Up — $980.11
blue.birds
Up — $956.09
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $915.21
CrouchPredictions
Up — $946.23