Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 66%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.0K

Combined PnL

$4.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 35 top traders (66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$26.3K

Total Shares26,275

Combined PnL+$9.3K

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,911

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Down — 66%Up — 34%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO fossildiamond577	Downavg 45¢	$6.5K	$14.3K	+$7.9K	62% 18-11 (29)
Atomforge	Downavg 36.6¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$772.73	16% 139-704 (843)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$456.45	45% 694-845 (1539)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 62.2¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$181.36	23% 306-1030 (1336)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 66.9¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$373.58	45% 367-452 (819)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 56.3¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K	50% 3687-3712 (7399)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 62¢	$939.92	$968.02	+$28.1	52% 3430-3194 (6624)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 52.1¢	$769.71	$839.71	+$70	40% 260-387 (647)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 67.8¢	$1.0K	$794.79	-$229.08	44% 457-583 (1040)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61¢	$484.77	$794.79	+$310.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.8¢	$539.1	—	-$539.1
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 51.5¢	$628.15	$741.34	+$164.22	60% 26-17 (43)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 58.2¢	$792.56	—	-$728.66	44% 451-572 (1023)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 59.1¢	$503.83	$534.01	+$31.93	60% 386-262 (648)
AD adururuARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$481.97	$339.76	-$142.21	3% 9-261 (270)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$315.49	—	-$315.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$166.48	$339.76	+$173.28
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 81.4¢	$323.93	$368.64	+$44.71	52% 307-280 (587)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 52.8¢	$243.81	$338.75	+$94.93	40% 277-413 (690)
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$247.11	$250.28	+$3.17	50% 3349-3300 (6649)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.5¢	$116.73	—	-$116.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.1¢	$130.38	$250.28	+$119.9
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$292.76	$237.28	-$55.48	30% 280-651 (931)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.9¢	$139.78	$237.28	+$97.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$152.98	—	-$152.98
ST stepahead	Downavg 61.7¢	$172.26	$259.78	+$87.52	54% 3604-3021 (6625)
PL ply-pm4	Downavg 50.3¢	$116.09	$145.6	+$44.41	9% 32-308 (340)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 54.1¢	$96.2	$121.32	+$25.47	37% 413-690 (1103)
BoneOhio	Downavg 83.6¢	$85	$101.63	+$16.63	75% 532-179 (711)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 91.2¢	$121.14	$104	-$17.14	62% 1526-942 (2468)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 61.1¢	$52.03	$85.1	+$33.07	45% 712-884 (1596)
Bossgirl<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$40.34	$80.99	+$40.64	53% 17-15 (32)
PB PBot-5CTR	Upavg 50.9¢	$192.03	—	-$162.73	47% 423-477 (900)

fossildiamond577

Down

Invested

$6,458.2

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

62%

18-11 (29)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$1,786.42

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$772.73

Record

16%

139-704 (843)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$1,296.97

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$456.45

Record

45%

694-845 (1539)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,760.65

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$181.36

Record

23%

306-1030 (1336)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,676.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$373.58

Record

45%

367-452 (819)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$1,413.72

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

3687-3712 (7399)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$939.92

Value

$968.02

PnL

+$28.1

Record

52%

3430-3194 (6624)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$769.71

Value

$839.71

PnL

+$70

Record

40%

260-387 (647)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$1,023.87

Value

$794.79

PnL

-$229.08

Record

44%

457-583 (1040)

Both legs:

Down$484.7761¢+$310.03

Up$539.167.8¢-$539.1

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$628.15

Value

$741.34

PnL

+$164.22

Record

60%

26-17 (43)

almachCTR

Invested

$792.56

Value

—

PnL

-$728.66

Record

44%

451-572 (1023)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$503.83

Value

$534.01

PnL

+$31.93

Record

60%

386-262 (648)

adururuARB<$100

Invested

$481.97

Value

$339.76

PnL

-$142.21

Record

9-261 (270)

Both legs:

Up$315.4950.1¢-$315.49

Down$166.4849¢+$173.28

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$323.93

Value

$368.64

PnL

+$44.71

Record

52%

307-280 (587)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$243.81

Value

$338.75

PnL

+$94.93

Record

40%

277-413 (690)

PapeasyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$247.11

Value

$250.28

PnL

+$3.17

Record

50%

3349-3300 (6649)

Both legs:

Up$116.7347.5¢-$116.73

Down$130.3852.1¢+$119.9

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$292.76

Value

$237.28

PnL

-$55.48

Record

30%

280-651 (931)

Both legs:

Down$139.7858.9¢+$97.5

Up$152.9853.6¢-$152.98

stepahead

Down

Invested

$172.26

Value

$259.78

PnL

+$87.52

Record

54%

3604-3021 (6625)

ply-pm4

Down

Invested

$116.09

Value

$145.6

PnL

+$44.41

Record

32-308 (340)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$96.2

Value

$121.32

PnL

+$25.47

Record

37%

413-690 (1103)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$85

Value

$101.63

PnL

+$16.63

Record

75%

532-179 (711)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$121.14

Value

$104

PnL

-$17.14

Record

62%

1526-942 (2468)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$52.03

Value

$85.1

PnL

+$33.07

Record

45%

712-884 (1596)

Bossgirl<$100

Down

Invested

$40.34

Value

$80.99

PnL

+$40.64

Record

53%

17-15 (32)

PBot-5CTR

Invested

$192.03

Value

—

PnL

-$162.73

Record

47%

423-477 (900)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 35 top traders (66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xcea1c683...2222dd

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794378300

Traders in this Market

fossildiamond577

Down — $14.3K

+$7.9K

Atomforge

Down — $2.4K

+$772.73

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.8K

+$456.45

ply-pm0

Down — $1.6K

-$181.36

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.3K

-$373.58

bosona

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.4K

blue.birds

Down — $968.02

+$28.1

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $839.71

+$70

mo-money

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$229.08

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $741.34

+$164.22

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