Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
38
Down 76%
5 arb excluded
$37.1K
$3.9K
Smart Money Signal
29 of 38 top traders (76%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Downavg 60.7¢ | $9.7K | $15.9K | +$6.3K | 18% 24-106 (130) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.8¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$37.52 | 75% 532-179 (711) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 62.2¢ | $2.3K | $2.9K | +$519.57 | 16% 139-704 (843) |
BI bigbelieverCTR | Upavg 31¢ | $3.1K | — | $-3.1K | 65% 17-9 (26) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $1.8K | $2.2K | +$1.0K | 60% 26-17 (43) |
AD adururu | Downavg 31.5¢ | $438.5 | $1.4K | +$951.71 | 3% 9-261 (270) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 67¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$15.31 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$14.17 | 98% 1426-30 (1456) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$38.29 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 85.8¢ | $931.45 | $1.0K | +$83.23 | 52% 307-280 (587) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 82.1¢ | $1.1K | $936.34 | -$162.54 | 23% 306-1030 (1336) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 47.9¢ | $589.23 | $760.6 | +$171.37 | 40% 260-387 (647) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 56.3¢ | $664.79 | $707.27 | +$44.68 | 60% 386-262 (648) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 83.6¢ | $703.73 | $696.82 | -$6.91 | 53% 305-271 (576) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $594.11 | $604.2 | +$10.09 | 53% 825-745 (1570) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.7¢ | $220.98 | — | -$220.98 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.8¢ | $373.13 | $604.2 | +$231.07 | |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 62.5¢ | $562.25 | — | -$562.25 | 50% 3687-3712 (7399) |
AL almach | Downavg 71.3¢ | $648.82 | $467.74 | -$181.08 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 64.9¢ | $517.77 | — | -$517.77 | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 56.1¢ | $333.64 | $320.82 | -$12.82 | 54% 3604-3021 (6625) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.6¢ | $153.78 | — | -$153.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.1¢ | $179.85 | $320.82 | +$140.96 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $300.36 | $293 | -$7.36 | 45% 694-845 (1539) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.6¢ | $146.54 | — | -$146.54 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.5¢ | $153.82 | $293 | +$139.18 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 63.6¢ | $389.23 | $344.13 | -$45.1 | 40% 277-413 (690) |
 Bossgirl | Downavg 56.1¢ | $136.86 | $244 | +$107.15 | 53% 17-15 (32) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 88¢ | $218.91 | $180.96 | -$29.39 | 62% 1526-942 (2468) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 41.9¢ | $103.5 | $167.06 | +$63.56 | 49% 3117-3227 (6344) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 51.2¢ | $135.18 | $157.92 | +$71.28 | 49% 347-360 (707) |
Invested
$9,659.8
Value
$15.9K
PnL
+$6.3K
Record
18%
24-106 (130)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,104.41
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$37.52
Record
75%
532-179 (711)
AtomforgeInvested
$2,340.28
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$519.57
Record
16%
139-704 (843)
Invested
$3,099.9
Value
—
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
65%
17-9 (26)
Invested
$1,797.27
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
60%
26-17 (43)
Invested
$438.5
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$951.71
Record
3%
9-261 (270)
Invested
$1,341.22
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$15.31
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Invested
$1,266.83
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$14.17
Record
98%
1426-30 (1456)
Invested
$1,197.72
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$38.29
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Invested
$931.45
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$83.23
Record
52%
307-280 (587)
Invested
$1,098.88
Value
$936.34
PnL
-$162.54
Record
23%
306-1030 (1336)
Invested
$589.23
Value
$760.6
PnL
+$171.37
Record
40%
260-387 (647)
Invested
$664.79
Value
$707.27
PnL
+$44.68
Record
60%
386-262 (648)
Invested
$703.73
Value
$696.82
PnL
-$6.91
Record
53%
305-271 (576)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$594.11
Value
$604.2
PnL
+$10.09
Record
53%
825-745 (1570)
Both legs:
Invested
$562.25
Value
—
PnL
-$562.25
Record
50%
3687-3712 (7399)
Invested
$648.82
Value
$467.74
PnL
-$181.08
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$517.77
Value
—
PnL
-$517.77
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Invested
$333.64
Value
$320.82
PnL
-$12.82
Record
54%
3604-3021 (6625)
Both legs:
Invested
$300.36
Value
$293
PnL
-$7.36
Record
45%
694-845 (1539)
Both legs:
Invested
$389.23
Value
$344.13
PnL
-$45.1
Record
40%
277-413 (690)
BossgirlInvested
$136.86
Value
$244
PnL
+$107.15
Record
53%
17-15 (32)
Invested
$218.91
Value
$180.96
PnL
-$29.39
Record
62%
1526-942 (2468)
Invested
$103.5
Value
$167.06
PnL
+$63.56
Record
49%
3117-3227 (6344)
Invested
$135.18
Value
$157.92
PnL
+$71.28
Record
49%
347-360 (707)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Down — $15.9K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.1K
Atomforge
Down — $2.9K
bigbeliever
CTRUp — $0
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $2.2K
adururu
Down — $1.4K
blue.birds
Down — $1.4K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
Down — $1.0K