Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
33
Down 39%
3 arb excluded
$9.9K
$-7.1K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 33 top traders (39%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 84.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$232.9 | 45% 694-845 (1539) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 47.2¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$649.7 | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
BO bosona | Upavg 57.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$506.31 | 50% 3687-3712 (7399) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.91 | 98% 1426-30 (1456) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 73¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 39% 447-703 (1150) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 48.7¢ | $570.31 | $720.94 | +$150.63 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 22.2¢ | $239.75 | $645.65 | +$405.9 | 53% 305-271 (576) |
AL almach | Upavg 38.3¢ | $482.03 | $635.81 | +$434.87 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 37.4¢ | $427.95 | $657.24 | +$229.29 | 60% 386-262 (648) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 43.6¢ | $484.79 | $588.82 | +$104.03 | 54% 3604-3021 (6625) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 39.7¢ | $525.07 | — | -$525.07 | 40% 260-387 (647) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 42.2¢ | $350.24 | $438.01 | +$87.77 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 41.8¢ | $277.06 | — | -$277.06 | 23% 306-1030 (1336) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 53.5¢ | $163.26 | — | -$146.16 | 53% 4027-3501 (7528) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 35¢ | $55.37 | $157.99 | +$102.62 | 47% 423-477 (900) |
AN antsaslykuARB<$100 | Downavg 61.1¢ | $171.68 | $81.61 | -$90.07 | 39% 529-840 (1369) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.1¢ | $139.15 | — | -$139.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.9¢ | $32.53 | $81.61 | +$49.08 | |
 Atomforge | Upavg 28.8¢ | $37.6 | $130.44 | +$92.84 | 16% 139-704 (843) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 68.1¢ | $129.49 | $115.77 | -$13.72 | 49% 347-360 (707) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.1¢ | $84.8 | — | -$84.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.6¢ | $44.69 | $115.77 | +$71.08 | |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 31.9¢ | $112.45 | — | -$105.19 | 49% 3117-3227 (6344) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 57.4¢ | $118.12 | — | -$118.12 | 30% 280-651 (931) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $96.28 | $116.32 | +$20.04 | 40% 277-413 (690) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33¢ | $38.44 | $116.32 | +$77.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.4¢ | $57.84 | — | -$57.84 | |
 OhioAI | Upavg 34.3¢ | $37.74 | $110 | +$72.26 | 47% 220-249 (469) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 31.8¢ | $33.72 | $106.19 | +$72.47 | 65% 1333-709 (2042) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Downavg 27.5¢ | $137.1 | — | -$137.1 | 52% 307-280 (587) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 33.5¢ | $61.55 | $80 | +$49.65 | 45% 712-884 (1596) |
Invested
$1,233.96
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$232.9
Record
45%
694-845 (1539)
Invested
$1,010.98
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$649.7
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Invested
$1,160.79
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$506.31
Record
50%
3687-3712 (7399)
Invested
$1,134.73
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.91
Record
98%
1426-30 (1456)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$1,133.4
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
39%
447-703 (1150)
Invested
$570.31
Value
$720.94
PnL
+$150.63
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Invested
$239.75
Value
$645.65
PnL
+$405.9
Record
53%
305-271 (576)
Invested
$482.03
Value
$635.81
PnL
+$434.87
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$427.95
Value
$657.24
PnL
+$229.29
Record
60%
386-262 (648)
Invested
$484.79
Value
$588.82
PnL
+$104.03
Record
54%
3604-3021 (6625)
Invested
$525.07
Value
—
PnL
-$525.07
Record
40%
260-387 (647)
Invested
$350.24
Value
$438.01
PnL
+$87.77
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Invested
$277.06
Value
—
PnL
-$277.06
Record
23%
306-1030 (1336)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$163.26
Value
—
PnL
-$146.16
Record
53%
4027-3501 (7528)
Invested
$55.37
Value
$157.99
PnL
+$102.62
Record
47%
423-477 (900)
Invested
$171.68
Value
$81.61
PnL
-$90.07
Record
39%
529-840 (1369)
Both legs:
AtomforgeInvested
$37.6
Value
$130.44
PnL
+$92.84
Record
16%
139-704 (843)
Invested
$129.49
Value
$115.77
PnL
-$13.72
Record
49%
347-360 (707)
Both legs:
Invested
$112.45
Value
—
PnL
-$105.19
Record
49%
3117-3227 (6344)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$118.12
Value
—
PnL
-$118.12
Record
30%
280-651 (931)
Invested
$96.28
Value
$116.32
PnL
+$20.04
Record
40%
277-413 (690)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$37.74
Value
$110
PnL
+$72.26
Record
47%
220-249 (469)
Invested
$33.72
Value
$106.19
PnL
+$72.47
Record
65%
1333-709 (2042)
Invested
$137.1
Value
—
PnL
-$137.1
Record
52%
307-280 (587)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$61.55
Value
$80
PnL
+$49.65
Record
45%
712-884 (1596)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $1.5K
mo-money
Up — $1.3K
bosona
Up — $1.3K
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
machinelearned
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $720.94
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Up — $645.65
almach
Up — $635.81
Bonereaper
Up — $657.24
stepahead
Up — $588.82