Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

$-6.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 33 top traders (79%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares13,404

Combined PnL+$646.8

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares13,863

Combined PnL$-7.4K

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 80.9¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$78.45	60% 26-17 (43)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 63.5¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$499.56	45% 694-845 (1539)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 62.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$90.3	52% 3430-3194 (6624)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 63.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$85.03	23% 306-1030 (1336)
Atomforge	Downavg 81.8¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$169.07	16% 139-704 (843)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 63.3¢	$922.31	$940.76	+$21.76	40% 260-387 (647)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$714.17	$742.98	+$28.81	45% 367-452 (819)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$397.47	$742.98	+$345.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.2¢	$316.71	—	-$316.71
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 87.2¢	$593.79	$680.84	+$87.06	53% 305-271 (576)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 56.3¢	$868.64	—	-$868.64	44% 451-572 (1023)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$588.44	$564.23	-$24.21	45% 428-518 (946)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 55.8¢	$411.12	$552.06	+$140.95	40% 277-413 (690)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 63¢	$552.14	$506.24	-$45.9	60% 386-262 (648)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 67.2¢	$407.94	$379.68	-$28.26	52% 307-280 (587)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 43.2¢	$508.77	—	-$508.77	44% 457-583 (1040)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 39.2¢	$420.26	—	-$420.26	50% 3687-3712 (7399)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 66.1¢	$330.63	$297.66	-$32.97	30% 280-651 (931)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 53.1¢	$275.75	$345.98	+$70.23	54% 3604-3021 (6625)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.1¢	$183.79	$345.98	+$162.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$91.96	—	-$91.96
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 34.4¢	$171.31	$159.99	-$11.32	53% 4027-3501 (7528)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.4¢	$89.92	—	-$89.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$81.39	$159.99	+$78.59
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 53¢	$100.32	$111.26	+$10.94	39% 447-703 (1150)
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.1¢	$41.35	—	-$41.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 53¢	$58.97	$111.26	+$52.29
Bossgirl	Downavg 88.8¢	$206.75	$166	-$37.88	53% 17-15 (32)
PB PBot-5	Downavg 46.4¢	$147.97	$159.57	+$27.19	47% 423-477 (900)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 81.6¢	$222.91	$148.99	+$20.95	62% 1526-942 (2468)
PL ply-pm4	Downavg 78¢	$167.68	$141.09	-$26.59	9% 32-308 (340)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 85¢	$126.3	$123.38	-$2.92	65% 1333-709 (2042)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 60.7¢	$96.41	$120	+$23.59	50% 120-118 (238)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$2,629.49

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$78.45

Record

60%

26-17 (43)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$1,193.03

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$499.56

Record

45%

694-845 (1539)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$1,246.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$90.3

Record

52%

3430-3194 (6624)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,206.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$85.03

Record

23%

306-1030 (1336)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$1,437.36

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$169.07

Record

16%

139-704 (843)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$922.31

Value

$940.76

PnL

+$21.76

Record

40%

260-387 (647)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$714.17

Value

$742.98

PnL

+$28.81

Record

45%

367-452 (819)

Both legs:

Down$397.4753.5¢+$345.51

Up$316.7123.2¢-$316.71

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$593.79

Value

$680.84

PnL

+$87.06

Record

53%

305-271 (576)

almachCTR

Invested

$868.64

Value

—

PnL

-$868.64

Record

44%

451-572 (1023)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$588.44

Value

$564.23

PnL

-$24.21

Record

45%

428-518 (946)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$411.12

Value

$552.06

PnL

+$140.95

Record

40%

277-413 (690)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$552.14

Value

$506.24

PnL

-$45.9

Record

60%

386-262 (648)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$407.94

Value

$379.68

PnL

-$28.26

Record

52%

307-280 (587)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$508.77

Value

—

PnL

-$508.77

Record

44%

457-583 (1040)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$420.26

Value

—

PnL

-$420.26

Record

50%

3687-3712 (7399)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$330.63

Value

$297.66

PnL

-$32.97

Record

30%

280-651 (931)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$275.75

Value

$345.98

PnL

+$70.23

Record

54%

3604-3021 (6625)

Both legs:

Down$183.7953.1¢+$162.19

Up$91.9648.3¢-$91.96

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$171.31

Value

$159.99

PnL

-$11.32

Record

53%

4027-3501 (7528)

Both legs:

Up$89.9234.4¢-$89.92

Down$81.3950.9¢+$78.59

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$100.32

Value

$111.26

PnL

+$10.94

Record

39%

447-703 (1150)

Both legs:

Invested

$206.75

Value

$166

PnL

-$37.88

Record

53%

17-15 (32)

PBot-5

Down

Invested

$147.97

Value

$159.57

PnL

+$27.19

Record

47%

423-477 (900)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$222.91

Value

$148.99

PnL

+$20.95

Record

62%

1526-942 (2468)

ply-pm4

Down

Invested

$167.68

Value

$141.09

PnL

-$26.59

Record

32-308 (340)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$126.3

Value

$123.38

PnL

-$2.92

Record

65%

1333-709 (2042)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$96.41

Value

$120

PnL

+$23.59

Record

50%

120-118 (238)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 33 top traders (79%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x641281f0...3c2976

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794377400

Traders in this Market

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $2.4K

-$78.45

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.7K

+$499.56

blue.birds

Down — $1.3K

+$90.3

ply-pm0

Down — $1.3K

+$85.03

Atomforge

Down — $1.3K

-$169.07

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $940.76

+$21.76

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$28.81

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $680.84

+$87.06

almach

CTR

Up — $0

-$868.64

0x50f7

Down — $564.23

-$24.21

Trade on Polymarket