Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Down 69%
4 arb excluded
$27.5K
$2.7K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 35 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Downavg 44.4¢ | $4.5K | $10.0K | +$5.6K | 18% 24-106 (130) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.1¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$60.25 | 75% 532-179 (711) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $2.1K | $1.6K | -$452.49 | 45% 694-845 (1539) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 39.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$494.34 | 16% 139-704 (843) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 64.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$76.73 | 40% 260-387 (647) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 65.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$94.11 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 80.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$161.31 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$228.83 | 23% 306-1030 (1336) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$20 | 98% 1426-30 (1456) |
AL almach | Downavg 60.3¢ | $799.81 | $670.92 | -$128.9 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 66.4¢ | $696.43 | $666.65 | -$28.94 | 40% 277-413 (690) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $620.64 | $438.24 | -$182.39 | 54% 3604-3021 (6625) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.2¢ | $357.39 | — | -$357.39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.1¢ | $263.25 | $438.24 | +$174.99 | |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 59.7¢ | $559.14 | $520.06 | -$37.49 | 60% 386-262 (648) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 62¢ | $598.42 | — | -$598.42 | 50% 3687-3712 (7399) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 69.5¢ | $657.36 | $500 | -$157.36 | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 70.7¢ | $481.82 | $414.99 | -$66.84 | 52% 307-280 (587) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 92.3¢ | $360.16 | $372.49 | +$12.33 | 49% 347-360 (707) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 50.6¢ | $444.58 | — | -$444.58 | 30% 280-651 (931) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $411.21 | $500.38 | +$89.17 | 39% 447-703 (1150) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.6¢ | $303.22 | $500.38 | +$197.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.7¢ | $107.99 | — | -$107.99 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 57.2¢ | $314.45 | $331.74 | +$17.29 | 53% 4027-3501 (7528) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 68.2¢ | $206.4 | $230 | +$45.1 | 49% 3117-3227 (6344) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 96¢ | $207.79 | $173 | -$34.79 | 65% 1333-709 (2042) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 74¢ | $179.28 | $169 | -$10.28 | 53% 305-271 (576) |
PA Papeasy | Downavg 57.7¢ | $115.88 | $101.01 | -$14.87 | 50% 3349-3300 (6649) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $97.42 | $100.91 | +$3.48 | 47% 220-249 (469) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.9¢ | $65.46 | $100.91 | +$35.44 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.3¢ | $31.96 | — | -$31.96 |
Invested
$4,457.16
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$5.6K
Record
18%
24-106 (130)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,114.75
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$60.25
Record
75%
532-179 (711)
Invested
$2,083.54
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$452.49
Record
45%
694-845 (1539)
AtomforgeInvested
$1,178.94
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$494.34
Record
16%
139-704 (843)
Invested
$1,447.1
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$76.73
Record
40%
260-387 (647)
Invested
$1,070.32
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$94.11
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Invested
$1,240.33
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$161.31
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Invested
$1,296.16
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$228.83
Record
23%
306-1030 (1336)
Invested
$1,002
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$20
Record
98%
1426-30 (1456)
Invested
$799.81
Value
$670.92
PnL
-$128.9
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$696.43
Value
$666.65
PnL
-$28.94
Record
40%
277-413 (690)
Invested
$620.64
Value
$438.24
PnL
-$182.39
Record
54%
3604-3021 (6625)
Both legs:
Invested
$559.14
Value
$520.06
PnL
-$37.49
Record
60%
386-262 (648)
Invested
$598.42
Value
—
PnL
-$598.42
Record
50%
3687-3712 (7399)
Invested
$657.36
Value
$500
PnL
-$157.36
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Invested
$481.82
Value
$414.99
PnL
-$66.84
Record
52%
307-280 (587)
Invested
$360.16
Value
$372.49
PnL
+$12.33
Record
49%
347-360 (707)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$444.58
Value
—
PnL
-$444.58
Record
30%
280-651 (931)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$411.21
Value
$500.38
PnL
+$89.17
Record
39%
447-703 (1150)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$314.45
Value
$331.74
PnL
+$17.29
Record
53%
4027-3501 (7528)
Invested
$206.4
Value
$230
PnL
+$45.1
Record
49%
3117-3227 (6344)
Invested
$207.79
Value
$173
PnL
-$34.79
Record
65%
1333-709 (2042)
Invested
$179.28
Value
$169
PnL
-$10.28
Record
53%
305-271 (576)
Invested
$115.88
Value
$101.01
PnL
-$14.87
Record
50%
3349-3300 (6649)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$97.42
Value
$100.91
PnL
+$3.48
Record
47%
220-249 (469)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Down — $10.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.2K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.6K
Atomforge
Down — $1.5K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $1.4K
blue.birds
Down — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.1K
ply-pm0
Down — $1.1K
hoodquant
Down — $1.0K
almach
Down — $670.92