Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
38
Down 79%
2 arb excluded
$25.4K
$-8.4K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 38 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fossildiamond577 | Downavg 90¢ | $6.2K | $6.9K | +$687.22 | 62% 18-11 (29) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$30.83 | 75% 532-179 (711) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 52.6¢ | $1.3K | $2.5K | +$1.2K | 45% 694-845 (1539) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 82.3¢ | $1.9K | $1.4K | -$517.79 | 16% 139-704 (843) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 59.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$43.06 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
BO bosona | Downavg 60.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | -$227.23 | 50% 3687-3712 (7399) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 59.2¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 94¢ | $949.08 | $1.0K | +$60.5 | 98% 1426-30 (1456) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 55.4¢ | $801.38 | $999.98 | +$198.6 | 23% 306-1030 (1336) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 68.6¢ | $833.18 | $998.77 | +$165.59 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
AL almach | Downavg 63¢ | $1.2K | $969.23 | -$185.08 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 81.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0.25 | 60% 386-262 (648) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 52.9¢ | $643.63 | $778.85 | +$135.23 | 40% 260-387 (647) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 60.9¢ | $497.36 | $734.68 | +$237.32 | 53% 305-271 (576) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 59.4¢ | $394.53 | $402.29 | +$7.76 | 30% 280-651 (931) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 67¢ | $314.92 | $384.17 | +$69.25 | 52% 307-280 (587) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 50.8¢ | $301.88 | $327.95 | +$46.27 | 40% 277-413 (690) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $256.59 | $324.93 | +$68.35 | 54% 3604-3021 (6625) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.5¢ | $173.74 | $324.93 | +$151.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.5¢ | $82.85 | — | -$82.85 | |
PA Papeasy | Downavg 66.4¢ | $151.89 | $192.79 | +$40.9 | 50% 3349-3300 (6649) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 46.4¢ | $74.2 | $159.99 | +$85.8 | 47% 423-477 (900) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 51.3¢ | $74.12 | $128.73 | +$60.41 | 37% 413-690 (1103) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 41.9¢ | $66.55 | $110 | +$68.64 | 53% 4027-3501 (7528) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 47.6¢ | $52.52 | $110.3 | +$57.78 | 50% 120-118 (238) |
PL ply-pm4 | Downavg 96.9¢ | $150.48 | $68.5 | -$80.18 | 9% 32-308 (340) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $64.67 | $80 | +$15.33 | 61% 381-241 (622) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.5¢ | $46 | $80 | +$34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.3¢ | $18.67 | — | -$18.67 |
Invested
$6,178.73
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$687.22
Record
62%
18-11 (29)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,052.66
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$30.83
Record
75%
532-179 (711)
Invested
$1,340.78
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
45%
694-845 (1539)
AtomforgeInvested
$1,937.95
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$517.79
Record
16%
139-704 (843)
Invested
$1,223.69
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$43.06
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Invested
$1,270.21
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$227.23
Record
50%
3687-3712 (7399)
Invested
$1,246.95
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Invested
$949.08
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$60.5
Record
98%
1426-30 (1456)
Invested
$801.38
Value
$999.98
PnL
+$198.6
Record
23%
306-1030 (1336)
Invested
$833.18
Value
$998.77
PnL
+$165.59
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Invested
$1,154.3
Value
$969.23
PnL
-$185.08
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$1,088.68
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0.25
Record
60%
386-262 (648)
Invested
$643.63
Value
$778.85
PnL
+$135.23
Record
40%
260-387 (647)
Invested
$497.36
Value
$734.68
PnL
+$237.32
Record
53%
305-271 (576)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$394.53
Value
$402.29
PnL
+$7.76
Record
30%
280-651 (931)
Invested
$314.92
Value
$384.17
PnL
+$69.25
Record
52%
307-280 (587)
Invested
$301.88
Value
$327.95
PnL
+$46.27
Record
40%
277-413 (690)
Invested
$256.59
Value
$324.93
PnL
+$68.35
Record
54%
3604-3021 (6625)
Both legs:
Invested
$151.89
Value
$192.79
PnL
+$40.9
Record
50%
3349-3300 (6649)
Invested
$74.2
Value
$159.99
PnL
+$85.8
Record
47%
423-477 (900)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$74.12
Value
$128.73
PnL
+$60.41
Record
37%
413-690 (1103)
FairValueMachineInvested
$66.55
Value
$110
PnL
+$68.64
Record
53%
4027-3501 (7528)
Invested
$52.52
Value
$110.3
PnL
+$57.78
Record
50%
120-118 (238)
Invested
$150.48
Value
$68.5
PnL
-$80.18
Record
9%
32-308 (340)
Invested
$64.67
Value
$80
PnL
+$15.33
Record
61%
381-241 (622)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
fossildiamond577
Down — $6.9K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.1K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.5K
Atomforge
Down — $1.4K
blue.birds
Down — $1.3K
bosona
Down — $1.0K
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.0K
ply-pm0
Down — $999.98
CrouchPredictions
Down — $998.77