Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
39
Up 82%
2 arb excluded
$18.7K
$-3.6K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 39 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fossildiamond577 | Upavg 61.2¢ | $3.3K | $5.3K | +$2.1K | 62% 18-11 (29) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 49.9¢ | $1.7K | $2.4K | +$653.14 | 16% 139-704 (843) |
BO borderlocketCTR | Downavg 33.5¢ | $5.2K | — | $-5.0K | 18% 24-106 (130) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 85.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$145.24 | 60% 386-262 (648) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 70.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$204.71 | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 66.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$86.57 | 23% 306-1030 (1336) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 79.3¢ | $913.89 | $906.67 | -$7.22 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
AL almach | Upavg 67.5¢ | $1.2K | $872.81 | -$207.5 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
BO bosona | Upavg 67.9¢ | $1.1K | $752.38 | -$224.67 | 50% 3687-3712 (7399) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 62.9¢ | $603.59 | $700 | +$102.41 | 60% 26-17 (43) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 76.9¢ | $760.58 | $667.82 | -$92.76 | 52% 307-280 (587) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 63.6¢ | $611.64 | $655.88 | +$44.75 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 33.7¢ | $585.33 | — | -$585.33 | 40% 260-387 (647) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 71.6¢ | $364.47 | $398.37 | +$33.89 | 30% 280-651 (931) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 60.8¢ | $445.7 | $368.6 | -$62.02 | 53% 825-745 (1570) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 61.2¢ | $332.25 | $437.79 | +$105.54 | 54% 3604-3021 (6625) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.2¢ | $267.81 | $437.79 | +$169.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.8¢ | $64.43 | — | -$64.43 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 67.8¢ | $248.82 | $235.51 | -$13.31 | 40% 277-413 (690) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 63.6¢ | $200.18 | $234.84 | +$51.54 | 49% 347-360 (707) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 66.7¢ | $164.62 | $164.34 | -$0.28 | 53% 4027-3501 (7528) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 74¢ | $111 | $150 | +$39 | 75% 532-179 (711) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 66.8¢ | $141.25 | $160 | +$18.75 | 47% 423-477 (900) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 60.2¢ | $87.82 | $139.92 | +$52.1 | 37% 413-690 (1103) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 63.2¢ | $107.62 | $88.43 | -$19.19 | 50% 3349-3300 (6649) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 53.5¢ | $64.47 | $96.83 | +$32.36 | 34% 362-713 (1075) |
PL ply-pm4<$100 | Upavg 63.8¢ | $97.99 | $76.15 | -$5.39 | 9% 32-308 (340) |
Invested
$3,253.11
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
62%
18-11 (29)
AtomforgeInvested
$1,740.6
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$653.14
Record
16%
139-704 (843)
Invested
$5,235.76
Value
—
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
18%
24-106 (130)
Invested
$1,412.33
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$145.24
Record
60%
386-262 (648)
Invested
$1,256.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$204.71
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Invested
$1,124.42
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$86.57
Record
23%
306-1030 (1336)
Invested
$913.89
Value
$906.67
PnL
-$7.22
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Invested
$1,233.13
Value
$872.81
PnL
-$207.5
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$1,061.63
Value
$752.38
PnL
-$224.67
Record
50%
3687-3712 (7399)
Invested
$603.59
Value
$700
PnL
+$102.41
Record
60%
26-17 (43)
Invested
$760.58
Value
$667.82
PnL
-$92.76
Record
52%
307-280 (587)
Invested
$611.64
Value
$655.88
PnL
+$44.75
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Invested
$585.33
Value
—
PnL
-$585.33
Record
40%
260-387 (647)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$364.47
Value
$398.37
PnL
+$33.89
Record
30%
280-651 (931)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$445.7
Value
$368.6
PnL
-$62.02
Record
53%
825-745 (1570)
Invested
$332.25
Value
$437.79
PnL
+$105.54
Record
54%
3604-3021 (6625)
Both legs:
Invested
$248.82
Value
$235.51
PnL
-$13.31
Record
40%
277-413 (690)
Invested
$200.18
Value
$234.84
PnL
+$51.54
Record
49%
347-360 (707)
FairValueMachineInvested
$164.62
Value
$164.34
PnL
-$0.28
Record
53%
4027-3501 (7528)
BoneOhioInvested
$111
Value
$150
PnL
+$39
Record
75%
532-179 (711)
Invested
$141.25
Value
$160
PnL
+$18.75
Record
47%
423-477 (900)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$87.82
Value
$139.92
PnL
+$52.1
Record
37%
413-690 (1103)
Invested
$107.62
Value
$88.43
PnL
-$19.19
Record
50%
3349-3300 (6649)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$64.47
Value
$96.83
PnL
+$32.36
Record
34%
362-713 (1075)
Invested
$97.99
Value
$76.15
PnL
-$5.39
Record
9%
32-308 (340)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
fossildiamond577
Up — $5.3K
Atomforge
Up — $2.4K
borderlocket
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $1.3K
mo-money
Up — $1.1K
ply-pm0
Up — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $906.67
almach
Up — $872.81
bosona
Up — $752.38
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Up — $700