Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 37 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down29 traders

Total Value$20.7K

Total Shares20,662

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,116

Combined PnL$-4.5K

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO fossildiamond577	Downavg 55.7¢	$3.9K	$7.0K	+$3.1K	62% 18-11 (29)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 90.8¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$31.63	60% 386-262 (648)
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 54.3¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.2K	16% 139-704 (843)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 76.2¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$62.3	60% 26-17 (43)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 91.7¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$192.78	53% 305-271 (576)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 61.9¢	$938.91	$1.0K	+$108.18	52% 3430-3194 (6624)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 67.2¢	$1.2K	$916.05	-$242.45	45% 367-452 (819)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 73.8¢	$949.06	$845.27	-$103.79	23% 306-1030 (1336)
ST stepahead	Downavg 53.5¢	$639.01	$604.42	-$34.58	54% 3604-3021 (6625)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 63.9¢	$612.97	$489.32	-$123.66	40% 260-387 (647)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 59.7¢	$477.46	$506.39	+$28.93	40% 277-413 (690)
AL almach	Downavg 60.4¢	$343.93	$449.62	+$105.7	44% 451-572 (1023)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Upavg 43¢	$363.46	$403.43	+$39.97	52% 307-280 (587)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.1¢	$145.46	$403.43	+$257.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$218	—	-$218
MO mo-money	Downavg 61.7¢	$339.02	$318.02	-$21	44% 457-583 (1040)
BO bosona	Downavg 85¢	$446.39	$300	-$146.39	50% 3687-3712 (7399)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 55.5¢	$232.57	$298.68	+$66.11	53% 4027-3501 (7528)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 60.6¢	$236.25	$253.69	+$17.44	30% 280-651 (931)
machinelearned	Downavg 26¢	$135.98	$500	+$364.02	39% 447-703 (1150)
Bossgirl	Downavg 54.4¢	$143.8	$195	+$57.73	53% 17-15 (32)
PA Papeasy	Downavg 59.7¢	$112.28	$155.23	+$42.95	50% 3349-3300 (6649)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 77.4¢	$111.76	$137.6	+$25.84	62% 1526-942 (2468)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 77.5¢	$140.4	$120.73	-$19.67	49% 347-360 (707)
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 58.4¢	$93.69	$94	+$0.31	47% 220-249 (469)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$82.46	$87.91	+$21.25	49% 3117-3227 (6344)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 41.8¢	$141.87	$55.5	-$86.37	39% 529-840 (1369)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.7¢	$39.81	$55.5	+$15.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$102.06	—	-$102.06

fossildiamond577

Down

Invested

$3,890.11

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

62%

18-11 (29)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$3,234.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$31.63

Record

60%

386-262 (648)

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$2,530.25

Value

—

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

16%

139-704 (843)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$1,780.8

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$62.3

Record

60%

26-17 (43)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$1,489.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$192.78

Record

53%

305-271 (576)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$938.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$108.18

Record

52%

3430-3194 (6624)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,158.5

Value

$916.05

PnL

-$242.45

Record

45%

367-452 (819)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$949.06

Value

$845.27

PnL

-$103.79

Record

23%

306-1030 (1336)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$639.01

Value

$604.42

PnL

-$34.58

Record

54%

3604-3021 (6625)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$612.97

Value

$489.32

PnL

-$123.66

Record

40%

260-387 (647)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$477.46

Value

$506.39

PnL

+$28.93

Record

40%

277-413 (690)

almach

Down

Invested

$343.93

Value

$449.62

PnL

+$105.7

Record

44%

451-572 (1023)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Invested

$363.46

Value

$403.43

PnL

+$39.97

Record

52%

307-280 (587)

Both legs:

Down$145.4636.1¢+$257.97

Up$21843¢-$218

mo-money

Down

Invested

$339.02

Value

$318.02

PnL

-$21

Record

44%

457-583 (1040)

bosona

Down

Invested

$446.39

Value

$300

PnL

-$146.39

Record

50%

3687-3712 (7399)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$232.57

Value

$298.68

PnL

+$66.11

Record

53%

4027-3501 (7528)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$236.25

Value

$253.69

PnL

+$17.44

Record

30%

280-651 (931)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$135.98

Value

$500

PnL

+$364.02

Record

39%

447-703 (1150)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$143.8

Value

$195

PnL

+$57.73

Record

53%

17-15 (32)

Papeasy

Down

Invested

$112.28

Value

$155.23

PnL

+$42.95

Record

50%

3349-3300 (6649)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$111.76

Value

$137.6

PnL

+$25.84

Record

62%

1526-942 (2468)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$140.4

Value

$120.73

PnL

-$19.67

Record

49%

347-360 (707)

OhioAI<$100

Down

Invested

$93.69

Value

$94

PnL

+$0.31

Record

47%

220-249 (469)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$82.46

Value

$87.91

PnL

+$21.25

Record

49%

3117-3227 (6344)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$141.87

Value

$55.5

PnL

-$86.37

Record

39%

529-840 (1369)

Both legs:

Down$39.8171.7¢+$15.69

Up$102.0641.8¢-$102.06

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 37 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc3aea368...b266b2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794376200

Traders in this Market

fossildiamond577

Down — $7.0K

+$3.1K

Bonereaper

Down — $3.3K

+$31.63

Atomforge

CTR

Up — $0

$-2.2K

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $1.6K

-$62.3

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $1.3K

-$192.78

blue.birds

Down — $1.0K

+$108.18

CrouchPredictions

Down — $916.05

-$242.45

ply-pm0

Down — $845.27

-$103.79

stepahead

Down — $604.42

-$34.58

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $489.32

-$123.66

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