Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
39
Up 79%
2 arb excluded
$32.6K
$2.1K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 39 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Upavg 46.6¢ | $6.1K | $13.1K | +$7.0K | 18% 24-106 (130) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 75% 532-179 (711) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 86.8¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$43.58 | 60% 386-262 (648) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Downavg 16.2¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | 16% 139-704 (843) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 76.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$61.26 | 23% 306-1030 (1336) |
BO bosona | Upavg 60.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$96.66 | 50% 3687-3712 (7399) |
AL almach | Upavg 58.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$88.39 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 62.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$36.84 | 40% 260-387 (647) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 97.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.0K | -$808.22 | 45% 694-845 (1539) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 83.4¢ | $1.0K | $957.99 | -$61.25 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 63¢ | $757.63 | $792.44 | +$34.81 | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 68.2¢ | $772.47 | $740.5 | +$15.03 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 95¢ | $583.91 | $614.58 | +$30.67 | 98% 1426-30 (1456) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 64¢ | $501.61 | $504.76 | +$3.15 | 40% 277-413 (690) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 46.3¢ | $450.03 | $458.98 | +$141.37 | 53% 825-745 (1570) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 78.7¢ | $343.18 | $324.29 | -$13.68 | 47% 423-477 (900) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 72.1¢ | $276.32 | $273.95 | -$2.38 | 30% 280-651 (931) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 77.2¢ | $365.42 | $264.48 | -$98.54 | 53% 4027-3501 (7528) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 71.6¢ | $277.52 | $257.45 | -$20.07 | 49% 347-360 (707) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 81.2¢ | $274.61 | $337.99 | +$63.37 | 53% 305-271 (576) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 60.3¢ | $189.03 | $251.33 | +$62.3 | 50% 3349-3300 (6649) |
AD adururu | Upavg 54.9¢ | $147.67 | $181.47 | +$33.8 | 3% 9-261 (270) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 82.6¢ | $185.42 | $166 | -$18.04 | 47% 220-249 (469) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 85.4¢ | $193.86 | $156.35 | -$29 | 37% 413-690 (1103) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 80.4¢ | $140.14 | $138.29 | -$1.85 | 52% 307-280 (587) |
Invested
$6,079.65
Value
$13.1K
PnL
+$7.0K
Record
18%
24-106 (130)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
75%
532-179 (711)
Invested
$3,041.11
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$43.58
Record
60%
386-262 (648)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$1,608.18
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
16%
139-704 (843)
Invested
$1,397.02
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$61.26
Record
23%
306-1030 (1336)
Invested
$1,358.27
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$96.66
Record
50%
3687-3712 (7399)
Invested
$1,301.52
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$88.39
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$1,115.15
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$36.84
Record
40%
260-387 (647)
Invested
$1,838.45
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$808.22
Record
45%
694-845 (1539)
Invested
$1,019.24
Value
$957.99
PnL
-$61.25
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Invested
$757.63
Value
$792.44
PnL
+$34.81
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Invested
$772.47
Value
$740.5
PnL
+$15.03
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Invested
$583.91
Value
$614.58
PnL
+$30.67
Record
98%
1426-30 (1456)
Invested
$501.61
Value
$504.76
PnL
+$3.15
Record
40%
277-413 (690)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$450.03
Value
$458.98
PnL
+$141.37
Record
53%
825-745 (1570)
Invested
$343.18
Value
$324.29
PnL
-$13.68
Record
47%
423-477 (900)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$276.32
Value
$273.95
PnL
-$2.38
Record
30%
280-651 (931)
FairValueMachineInvested
$365.42
Value
$264.48
PnL
-$98.54
Record
53%
4027-3501 (7528)
Invested
$277.52
Value
$257.45
PnL
-$20.07
Record
49%
347-360 (707)
Invested
$274.61
Value
$337.99
PnL
+$63.37
Record
53%
305-271 (576)
Invested
$189.03
Value
$251.33
PnL
+$62.3
Record
50%
3349-3300 (6649)
Invested
$147.67
Value
$181.47
PnL
+$33.8
Record
3%
9-261 (270)
OhioAIInvested
$185.42
Value
$166
PnL
-$18.04
Record
47%
220-249 (469)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$193.86
Value
$156.35
PnL
-$29
Record
37%
413-690 (1103)
Invested
$140.14
Value
$138.29
PnL
-$1.85
Record
52%
307-280 (587)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Up — $13.1K
BoneOhio
Up — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Up — $3.0K
Atomforge
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
Up — $1.3K
bosona
Up — $1.3K
almach
Up — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.1K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $957.99