Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Up 70%
6 arb excluded
$19.6K
$-4.3K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 33 top traders (70%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 62.1¢ | $1.9K | $3.0K | +$1.1K | 45% 694-845 (1539) |
 AtomforgeARB<$100 | Upavg 74.7¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$118.87 | 16% 139-704 (843) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 74.7¢ | $2.1K | $2.8K | +$695.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.4¢ | $814.77 | — | -$814.77 | |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 76.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | +$17.59 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 72.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$37.46 | 53% 825-745 (1570) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.5K | +$421.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28¢ | $458.69 | — | -$458.69 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$69.97 | 23% 306-1030 (1336) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 71.3¢ | $995.74 | $942.88 | -$52.86 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $1.2K | $885.51 | -$331.39 | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.3¢ | $631.72 | $885.51 | +$253.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.9¢ | $585.17 | — | -$585.17 | |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 75¢ | $1.0K | $931.06 | -$70.87 | 60% 386-262 (648) |
BO bosona | Upavg 69.8¢ | $1.1K | $842.92 | -$259.9 | 50% 3687-3712 (7399) |
AL almach | Upavg 70.9¢ | $1.1K | $808.21 | -$257.95 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 61.7¢ | $725.31 | $709.37 | -$15.94 | 54% 3604-3021 (6625) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 64.8¢ | $592.23 | $876.68 | +$284.45 | 52% 307-280 (587) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 92.5¢ | $716.19 | $640 | -$71.43 | 60% 26-17 (43) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 82.1¢ | $628.44 | $585.74 | -$42.7 | 40% 260-387 (647) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Upavg 67.9¢ | $316.4 | $400 | +$83.6 | 50% 120-118 (238) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 80.3¢ | $218.15 | $222.94 | +$4.79 | 30% 280-651 (931) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 90.4¢ | $272.69 | $212 | -$39.7 | 62% 1526-942 (2468) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 75.5¢ | $184.13 | $211.55 | +$27.42 | 50% 3349-3300 (6649) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 79.9¢ | $173.94 | $159.86 | -$14.08 | 40% 277-413 (690) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $138.72 | $155 | +$16.28 | 45% 712-884 (1596) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.5¢ | $96.91 | $155 | +$58.09 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21¢ | $41.82 | — | -$41.82 | |
PL ply-pm4 | Upavg 77.8¢ | $177.43 | $156.15 | -$16.73 | 9% 32-308 (340) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 93¢ | $200.14 | $150.85 | -$49.21 | 75% 532-179 (711) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 92.2¢ | $137.29 | $137.62 | +$0.33 | 65% 1333-709 (2042) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 60.3¢ | $107.74 | $134.7 | +$38 | 37% 413-690 (1103) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $117.89 | $142.66 | +$24.77 | 34% 362-713 (1075) |
Invested
$1,852.4
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
45%
694-845 (1539)
AtomforgeARB<$100Invested
$2,873.39
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$118.87
Record
16%
139-704 (843)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,804.82
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$17.59
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$1,575.96
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$37.46
Record
53%
825-745 (1570)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,220.76
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$69.97
Record
23%
306-1030 (1336)
Invested
$995.74
Value
$942.88
PnL
-$52.86
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Invested
$1,216.9
Value
$885.51
PnL
-$331.39
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,003.83
Value
$931.06
PnL
-$70.87
Record
60%
386-262 (648)
Invested
$1,110.58
Value
$842.92
PnL
-$259.9
Record
50%
3687-3712 (7399)
Invested
$1,066.16
Value
$808.21
PnL
-$257.95
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$725.31
Value
$709.37
PnL
-$15.94
Record
54%
3604-3021 (6625)
Invested
$592.23
Value
$876.68
PnL
+$284.45
Record
52%
307-280 (587)
Invested
$716.19
Value
$640
PnL
-$71.43
Record
60%
26-17 (43)
Invested
$628.44
Value
$585.74
PnL
-$42.7
Record
40%
260-387 (647)
Invested
$316.4
Value
$400
PnL
+$83.6
Record
50%
120-118 (238)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$218.15
Value
$222.94
PnL
+$4.79
Record
30%
280-651 (931)
Invested
$272.69
Value
$212
PnL
-$39.7
Record
62%
1526-942 (2468)
Invested
$184.13
Value
$211.55
PnL
+$27.42
Record
50%
3349-3300 (6649)
Invested
$173.94
Value
$159.86
PnL
-$14.08
Record
40%
277-413 (690)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$138.72
Value
$155
PnL
+$16.28
Record
45%
712-884 (1596)
Both legs:
Invested
$177.43
Value
$156.15
PnL
-$16.73
Record
9%
32-308 (340)
BoneOhioInvested
$200.14
Value
$150.85
PnL
-$49.21
Record
75%
532-179 (711)
Invested
$137.29
Value
$137.62
PnL
+$0.33
Record
65%
1333-709 (2042)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$107.74
Value
$134.7
PnL
+$38
Record
37%
413-690 (1103)
pspspsps5Invested
$117.89
Value
$142.66
PnL
+$24.77
Record
34%
362-713 (1075)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $3.0K
Atomforge
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Up — $1.7K
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $942.88
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Up — $931.06
bosona
Up — $842.92
almach
Up — $808.21