Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
38
Down 65%
5 arb excluded
$25.1K
$749.25
Smart Money Signal
25 of 38 top traders (66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fossildiamond577 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $7.4K | $12.3K | +$4.9K | 62% 18-11 (29) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 50¢ | $2.4K | $2.6K | +$193.27 | 16% 139-704 (843) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 73.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$114.68 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$49.69 | 60% 26-17 (43) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 60.2¢ | $897.12 | $993.53 | +$96.41 | 40% 260-387 (647) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 37.5¢ | $988.19 | $722.65 | -$265.53 | 45% 367-452 (819) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.3¢ | $392.49 | $722.65 | +$330.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.5¢ | $595.7 | — | -$595.7 | |
BO bosona | Downavg 67.1¢ | $1.0K | $808.21 | -$234.98 | 50% 3687-3712 (7399) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 66.3¢ | $972.58 | $755 | -$217.58 | 44% 457-583 (1040) |
AL almach | Downavg 65¢ | $962.49 | $749.97 | -$212.52 | 44% 451-572 (1023) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 61.7¢ | $727.87 | $672.31 | -$55.56 | 23% 306-1030 (1336) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 48.2¢ | $738.22 | — | -$738.22 | 54% 3604-3021 (6625) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 60.3¢ | $486.73 | $514.34 | +$33.9 | 40% 277-413 (690) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $427.11 | $351.43 | -$75.67 | 53% 825-745 (1570) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.1¢ | $235.78 | $351.43 | +$115.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.3¢ | $191.32 | — | -$191.32 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 53.5¢ | $218.17 | $278.06 | +$59.89 | 30% 280-651 (931) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 58¢ | $250.37 | $266 | +$21.93 | 53% 4027-3501 (7528) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 28.3¢ | $201.27 | $168.99 | -$32.28 | 53% 305-271 (576) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.5¢ | $87.03 | $168.99 | +$81.96 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.3¢ | $114.24 | — | -$114.24 | |
AD adururu | Downavg 47.8¢ | $136.91 | $184.62 | +$78.59 | 3% 9-261 (270) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 49¢ | $98 | $200 | +$102 | 48% 1056-1134 (2190) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 67¢ | $176.94 | $160.02 | -$6.73 | 49% 3117-3227 (6344) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 85.4¢ | $259.9 | $168.52 | -$3.76 | 62% 1526-942 (2468) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $141.32 | $116.93 | -$24.39 | 45% 694-845 (1539) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $51.41 | $116.93 | +$65.52 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37¢ | $89.91 | — | -$89.91 | |
PL ply-pm4 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $86.81 | $128.35 | +$41.54 | 9% 32-308 (340) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Upavg 37.2¢ | $254.22 | — | -$234.72 | 52% 307-280 (587) |
 Bossgirl | Downavg 77.1¢ | $80.99 | $105 | +$24.01 | 53% 17-15 (32) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $60.75 | $75 | +$14.25 | 75% 532-179 (711) |
Invested
$7,377.56
Value
$12.3K
PnL
+$4.9K
Record
62%
18-11 (29)
AtomforgeInvested
$2,386.02
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$193.27
Record
16%
139-704 (843)
Invested
$1,620.86
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$114.68
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Invested
$1,223.68
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$49.69
Record
60%
26-17 (43)
Invested
$897.12
Value
$993.53
PnL
+$96.41
Record
40%
260-387 (647)
Invested
$988.19
Value
$722.65
PnL
-$265.53
Record
45%
367-452 (819)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,043.19
Value
$808.21
PnL
-$234.98
Record
50%
3687-3712 (7399)
Invested
$972.58
Value
$755
PnL
-$217.58
Record
44%
457-583 (1040)
Invested
$962.49
Value
$749.97
PnL
-$212.52
Record
44%
451-572 (1023)
Invested
$727.87
Value
$672.31
PnL
-$55.56
Record
23%
306-1030 (1336)
Invested
$738.22
Value
—
PnL
-$738.22
Record
54%
3604-3021 (6625)
Invested
$486.73
Value
$514.34
PnL
+$33.9
Record
40%
277-413 (690)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$427.11
Value
$351.43
PnL
-$75.67
Record
53%
825-745 (1570)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$218.17
Value
$278.06
PnL
+$59.89
Record
30%
280-651 (931)
FairValueMachineInvested
$250.37
Value
$266
PnL
+$21.93
Record
53%
4027-3501 (7528)
Invested
$201.27
Value
$168.99
PnL
-$32.28
Record
53%
305-271 (576)
Both legs:
Invested
$136.91
Value
$184.62
PnL
+$78.59
Record
3%
9-261 (270)
Invested
$98
Value
$200
PnL
+$102
Record
48%
1056-1134 (2190)
Invested
$176.94
Value
$160.02
PnL
-$6.73
Record
49%
3117-3227 (6344)
Invested
$259.9
Value
$168.52
PnL
-$3.76
Record
62%
1526-942 (2468)
Invested
$141.32
Value
$116.93
PnL
-$24.39
Record
45%
694-845 (1539)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.81
Value
$128.35
PnL
+$41.54
Record
9%
32-308 (340)
Invested
$254.22
Value
—
PnL
-$234.72
Record
52%
307-280 (587)
BossgirlInvested
$80.99
Value
$105
PnL
+$24.01
Record
53%
17-15 (32)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$60.75
Value
$75
PnL
+$14.25
Record
75%
532-179 (711)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
fossildiamond577
Down — $12.3K
Atomforge
Down — $2.6K
blue.birds
Down — $1.5K
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $1.1K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $993.53
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
Down — $808.21
mo-money
Down — $755
almach
Down — $749.97
ply-pm0
Down — $672.31