Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Down 66%
1 arb excluded
$7.2K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 35 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$18.9 | 74% 517-177 (694) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $840.95 | $910.61 | +$69.65 | 23% 304-1020 (1324) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 64.2¢ | $708.87 | $628.34 | -$56.53 | 52% 3416-3175 (6591) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 51.4¢ | $501.12 | $604.7 | +$103.58 | 40% 255-380 (635) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 62.5¢ | $542.36 | $530.48 | -$11.88 | 51% 877-838 (1715) |
BO bosona | Downavg 76.2¢ | $470.28 | $390.34 | -$79.94 | 50% 3677-3707 (7384) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 37.4¢ | $356.07 | — | -$356.07 | 54% 3595-3014 (6609) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 48.2¢ | $251.84 | $298.46 | +$46.62 | 40% 273-406 (679) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 28¢ | $309.56 | — | -$309.56 | 45% 361-442 (803) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 49.7¢ | $499.33 | — | -$487.52 | 60% 379-256 (635) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 56¢ | $201.18 | $271.43 | +$70.25 | 53% 4019-3498 (7517) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 51.3¢ | $187.72 | $258.55 | +$70.83 | 30% 277-643 (920) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 52.2¢ | $154.41 | $235.38 | +$84.39 | 53% 303-273 (576) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $179.92 | $208.91 | +$28.99 | 61% 374-236 (610) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.7¢ | $112.12 | $208.91 | +$96.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.4¢ | $67.8 | — | -$67.8 | |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 70.9¢ | $146.93 | $145.76 | -$1.18 | 49% 339-356 (695) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 53.8¢ | $138.9 | $141.19 | +$26.29 | 49% 3098-3207 (6305) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Upavg 39.8¢ | $105.26 | — | -$105.26 | 53% 298-268 (566) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 45.6¢ | $105.26 | — | -$105.26 | 38% 437-701 (1138) |
AL almach | Downavg 96¢ | $151.41 | $89.33 | -$62.08 | 44% 444-567 (1011) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 68.2¢ | $52.6 | $77.09 | +$24.49 | 62% 1494-928 (2422) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $74.43 | $76.21 | +$4.16 | 39% 519-828 (1347) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 47¢ | $70.71 | $150.45 | +$79.74 | 45% 680-835 (1515) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 94.8¢ | $90.44 | $69.85 | -$19.99 | 65% 1307-699 (2006) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $67.23 | $69.21 | +$1.98 | 44% 451-577 (1028) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $33 | $40 | +$7 | 53% 815-736 (1551) |
BoneOhioInvested
$1,871.4
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$18.9
Record
74%
517-177 (694)
Invested
$840.95
Value
$910.61
PnL
+$69.65
Record
23%
304-1020 (1324)
Invested
$708.87
Value
$628.34
PnL
-$56.53
Record
52%
3416-3175 (6591)
Invested
$501.12
Value
$604.7
PnL
+$103.58
Record
40%
255-380 (635)
Invested
$542.36
Value
$530.48
PnL
-$11.88
Record
51%
877-838 (1715)
Invested
$470.28
Value
$390.34
PnL
-$79.94
Record
50%
3677-3707 (7384)
Invested
$356.07
Value
—
PnL
-$356.07
Record
54%
3595-3014 (6609)
Invested
$251.84
Value
$298.46
PnL
+$46.62
Record
40%
273-406 (679)
Invested
$309.56
Value
—
PnL
-$309.56
Record
45%
361-442 (803)
Invested
$499.33
Value
—
PnL
-$487.52
Record
60%
379-256 (635)
FairValueMachineInvested
$201.18
Value
$271.43
PnL
+$70.25
Record
53%
4019-3498 (7517)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$187.72
Value
$258.55
PnL
+$70.83
Record
30%
277-643 (920)
Invested
$154.41
Value
$235.38
PnL
+$84.39
Record
53%
303-273 (576)
Invested
$179.92
Value
$208.91
PnL
+$28.99
Record
61%
374-236 (610)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.93
Value
$145.76
PnL
-$1.18
Record
49%
339-356 (695)
Invested
$138.9
Value
$141.19
PnL
+$26.29
Record
49%
3098-3207 (6305)
Invested
$105.26
Value
—
PnL
-$105.26
Record
53%
298-268 (566)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$105.26
Value
—
PnL
-$105.26
Record
38%
437-701 (1138)
Invested
$151.41
Value
$89.33
PnL
-$62.08
Record
44%
444-567 (1011)
Invested
$52.6
Value
$77.09
PnL
+$24.49
Record
62%
1494-928 (2422)
Invested
$74.43
Value
$76.21
PnL
+$4.16
Record
39%
519-828 (1347)
Invested
$70.71
Value
$150.45
PnL
+$79.74
Record
45%
680-835 (1515)
Invested
$90.44
Value
$69.85
PnL
-$19.99
Record
65%
1307-699 (2006)
Invested
$67.23
Value
$69.21
PnL
+$1.98
Record
44%
451-577 (1028)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$33
Value
$40
PnL
+$7
Record
53%
815-736 (1551)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $1.9K
ply-pm0
Down — $910.61
blue.birds
Down — $628.34
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $604.7
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $530.48
bosona
Down — $390.34
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $298.46
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0