Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 58%
4 arb excluded
$8.6K
-$664.93
Smart Money Signal
19 of 33 top traders (58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 39.5¢ | $931.59 | $1.2K | +$261.45 | 40% 255-380 (635) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 66.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$115.82 | 44% 451-577 (1028) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 30.8¢ | $674.95 | $874.67 | +$199.72 | 23% 304-1020 (1324) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33¢ | $288.25 | $874.67 | +$586.42 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.8¢ | $386.7 | — | -$386.7 | |
AL almach | Downavg 64.1¢ | $691.74 | $800.05 | +$142.31 | 44% 444-567 (1011) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 51¢ | $631.34 | $651.87 | +$20.53 | 52% 3416-3175 (6591) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 57.2¢ | $573.97 | $600.62 | +$26.94 | 54% 3595-3014 (6609) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 29.9¢ | $297.9 | $525.62 | +$229.94 | 45% 361-442 (803) |
BO bosona | Downavg 74.6¢ | $515.01 | $661.34 | +$146.33 | 50% 3677-3707 (7384) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 25¢ | $448.35 | — | -$448.35 | 38% 437-701 (1138) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 56.6¢ | $269.28 | $472.63 | +$203.35 | 53% 298-268 (566) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 50.6¢ | $464.47 | $466.79 | +$10.41 | 60% 379-256 (635) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 46.4¢ | $417.17 | — | -$417.17 | 40% 273-406 (679) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 60.1¢ | $275.53 | — | -$275.53 | 51% 877-838 (1715) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 51.6¢ | $266.08 | — | -$266.08 | 53% 4019-3498 (7517) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 57.5¢ | $154.43 | — | -$154.43 | 30% 277-643 (920) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 60.9¢ | $178.42 | $143.89 | -$34.53 | 49% 3098-3207 (6305) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.2¢ | $70.8 | $143.89 | +$73.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.9¢ | $107.62 | — | -$107.62 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Upavg 84.6¢ | $129.97 | $176.37 | +$46.4 | 61% 374-236 (610) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.8¢ | $59.64 | $176.37 | +$116.73 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 84.6¢ | $70.33 | — | -$70.33 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 56.6¢ | $108.52 | $102.07 | -$6.45 | 53% 303-273 (576) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.6¢ | $57.77 | $102.07 | +$44.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.3¢ | $50.75 | — | -$50.75 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 78.9¢ | $243.39 | — | -$224.59 | 53% 815-736 (1551) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 5.2¢ | $5.38 | $103.04 | +$97.66 | 37% 402-671 (1073) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 40.6¢ | $75.67 | $116.51 | +$45.74 | 62% 1494-928 (2422) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 3.5¢ | $6.75 | $191.1 | +$184.35 | 34% 358-693 (1051) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $53.65 | $65.97 | +$12.32 | 49% 339-356 (695) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 25.9¢ | $60.5 | — | -$60.5 | 45% 680-835 (1515) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 19¢ | $19 | $100 | +$81 | 74% 517-177 (694) |
Invested
$931.59
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$261.45
Record
40%
255-380 (635)
Invested
$1,296.22
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$115.82
Record
44%
451-577 (1028)
Invested
$674.95
Value
$874.67
PnL
+$199.72
Record
23%
304-1020 (1324)
Both legs:
Invested
$691.74
Value
$800.05
PnL
+$142.31
Record
44%
444-567 (1011)
Invested
$631.34
Value
$651.87
PnL
+$20.53
Record
52%
3416-3175 (6591)
Invested
$573.97
Value
$600.62
PnL
+$26.94
Record
54%
3595-3014 (6609)
Invested
$297.9
Value
$525.62
PnL
+$229.94
Record
45%
361-442 (803)
Invested
$515.01
Value
$661.34
PnL
+$146.33
Record
50%
3677-3707 (7384)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$448.35
Value
—
PnL
-$448.35
Record
38%
437-701 (1138)
Invested
$269.28
Value
$472.63
PnL
+$203.35
Record
53%
298-268 (566)
Invested
$464.47
Value
$466.79
PnL
+$10.41
Record
60%
379-256 (635)
Invested
$417.17
Value
—
PnL
-$417.17
Record
40%
273-406 (679)
Invested
$275.53
Value
—
PnL
-$275.53
Record
51%
877-838 (1715)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$266.08
Value
—
PnL
-$266.08
Record
53%
4019-3498 (7517)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$154.43
Value
—
PnL
-$154.43
Record
30%
277-643 (920)
Invested
$178.42
Value
$143.89
PnL
-$34.53
Record
49%
3098-3207 (6305)
Both legs:
Invested
$129.97
Value
$176.37
PnL
+$46.4
Record
61%
374-236 (610)
Both legs:
Invested
$108.52
Value
$102.07
PnL
-$6.45
Record
53%
303-273 (576)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$243.39
Value
—
PnL
-$224.59
Record
53%
815-736 (1551)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$5.38
Value
$103.04
PnL
+$97.66
Record
37%
402-671 (1073)
Invested
$75.67
Value
$116.51
PnL
+$45.74
Record
62%
1494-928 (2422)
pspspsps5Invested
$6.75
Value
$191.1
PnL
+$184.35
Record
34%
358-693 (1051)
Invested
$53.65
Value
$65.97
PnL
+$12.32
Record
49%
339-356 (695)
Invested
$60.5
Value
—
PnL
-$60.5
Record
45%
680-835 (1515)
BoneOhioInvested
$19
Value
$100
PnL
+$81
Record
74%
517-177 (694)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $1.2K
mo-money
Down — $1.2K
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Down — $800.05
blue.birds
Down — $651.87
stepahead
Down — $600.62
CrouchPredictions
Down — $525.62
bosona
Down — $661.34
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Down — $472.63