Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
38
Up 56%
$5.5K
$-4.1K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 38 top traders (53%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 72.4¢ | $978.58 | $1.1K | +$77.91 | 60% 379-256 (635) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 51.4¢ | $750.55 | — | -$750.55 | 40% 255-380 (635) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 57.4¢ | $906.06 | — | -$882.03 | 51% 877-838 (1715) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 33.9¢ | $432.57 | $800.9 | +$368.33 | 40% 273-406 (679) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $636.79 | $773.3 | +$149.67 | 53% 303-273 (576) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 38¢ | $564.65 | — | -$564.65 | 23% 304-1020 (1324) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 58¢ | $700.41 | $671.42 | -$28.99 | 52% 3416-3175 (6591) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 62.9¢ | $648.89 | — | -$648.89 | 54% 3595-3014 (6609) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $310.28 | $555.63 | +$245.35 | 45% 680-835 (1515) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 60¢ | $505.27 | $440.01 | -$46.33 | 49% 3098-3207 (6305) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 20.9¢ | $235.42 | — | -$235.42 | 45% 361-442 (803) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 44¢ | $320.67 | $376.39 | +$55.72 | 53% 4019-3498 (7517) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 71.2¢ | $585.99 | — | -$585.99 | 50% 3677-3707 (7384) |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 38.9¢ | $128.46 | $284.88 | +$156.42 | 39% 519-828 (1347) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 31.8¢ | $47.67 | $150 | +$102.33 | 74% 517-177 (694) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 78.2¢ | $582.14 | — | -$582.14 | 44% 451-577 (1028) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 75.4¢ | $101.8 | $134.94 | +$33.14 | 62% 1494-928 (2422) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $99.06 | — | -$99.06 | 61% 374-236 (610) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 61.1¢ | $214.29 | — | -$192.98 | 30% 277-643 (920) |
 OhioAICTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $94.02 | — | -$94.02 | 47% 214-244 (458) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 67¢ | $137.04 | — | -$109.99 | 49% 339-356 (695) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $94.24 | — | -$94.24 | 53% 298-268 (566) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 16.8¢ | $14.69 | $66.13 | +$51.44 | 38% 437-701 (1138) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 41.8¢ | $45.62 | $62.39 | +$16.77 | 50% 3342-3297 (6639) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $34.06 | $54.08 | +$20.02 | 44% 697-874 (1571) |
Invested
$978.58
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$77.91
Record
60%
379-256 (635)
Invested
$750.55
Value
—
PnL
-$750.55
Record
40%
255-380 (635)
Invested
$906.06
Value
—
PnL
-$882.03
Record
51%
877-838 (1715)
Invested
$432.57
Value
$800.9
PnL
+$368.33
Record
40%
273-406 (679)
Invested
$636.79
Value
$773.3
PnL
+$149.67
Record
53%
303-273 (576)
Invested
$564.65
Value
—
PnL
-$564.65
Record
23%
304-1020 (1324)
Invested
$700.41
Value
$671.42
PnL
-$28.99
Record
52%
3416-3175 (6591)
Invested
$648.89
Value
—
PnL
-$648.89
Record
54%
3595-3014 (6609)
Invested
$310.28
Value
$555.63
PnL
+$245.35
Record
45%
680-835 (1515)
Invested
$505.27
Value
$440.01
PnL
-$46.33
Record
49%
3098-3207 (6305)
Invested
$235.42
Value
—
PnL
-$235.42
Record
45%
361-442 (803)
FairValueMachineInvested
$320.67
Value
$376.39
PnL
+$55.72
Record
53%
4019-3498 (7517)
Invested
$585.99
Value
—
PnL
-$585.99
Record
50%
3677-3707 (7384)
Invested
$128.46
Value
$284.88
PnL
+$156.42
Record
39%
519-828 (1347)
BoneOhioInvested
$47.67
Value
$150
PnL
+$102.33
Record
74%
517-177 (694)
Invested
$582.14
Value
—
PnL
-$582.14
Record
44%
451-577 (1028)
Invested
$101.8
Value
$134.94
PnL
+$33.14
Record
62%
1494-928 (2422)
Invested
$99.06
Value
—
PnL
-$99.06
Record
61%
374-236 (610)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$214.29
Value
—
PnL
-$192.98
Record
30%
277-643 (920)
OhioAICTR<$100Invested
$94.02
Value
—
PnL
-$94.02
Record
47%
214-244 (458)
Invested
$137.04
Value
—
PnL
-$109.99
Record
49%
339-356 (695)
Invested
$94.24
Value
—
PnL
-$94.24
Record
53%
298-268 (566)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$14.69
Value
$66.13
PnL
+$51.44
Record
38%
437-701 (1138)
Invested
$45.62
Value
$62.39
PnL
+$16.77
Record
50%
3342-3297 (6639)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$34.06
Value
$54.08
PnL
+$20.02
Record
44%
697-874 (1571)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $1.1K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $800.9
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
Down — $773.3
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $671.42
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $555.63
asdcaxz
Down — $440.01