Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Down 71%
2 arb excluded
$7.6K
$230.94
Smart Money Signal
22 of 31 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.49 | 74% 506-174 (680) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$1.47 | 45% 421-510 (931) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 79¢ | $326.6 | $285.12 | -$41.47 | 52% 3399-3159 (6558) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 83.6¢ | $324.19 | $272.25 | -$51.94 | 51% 863-824 (1687) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 71.8¢ | $224.35 | $193.39 | -$30.96 | 54% 3586-3008 (6594) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.8¢ | $138.92 | $193.39 | +$54.47 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.5¢ | $85.43 | — | -$85.43 | |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 65.5¢ | $269.25 | $254.69 | +$27.19 | 60% 374-250 (624) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 47.9¢ | $237.17 | $495.36 | +$258.19 | 45% 665-826 (1491) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 81.1¢ | $181.96 | $220.92 | +$38.96 | 49% 333-350 (683) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 76.3¢ | $252.67 | $196.04 | -$56.62 | 41% 253-371 (624) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 86.9¢ | $190.78 | $182.23 | -$8.55 | 23% 299-1014 (1313) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 48.7¢ | $131.27 | $269.32 | +$138.05 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 85.6¢ | $107.15 | $112.06 | +$4.91 | 52% 800-726 (1526) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 92.2¢ | $110.33 | $114.6 | +$4.39 | 62% 1469-913 (2382) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 8.7¢ | $27.08 | — | -$27.08 | 38% 427-698 (1125) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.8¢ | $77.13 | $72.25 | -$4.88 | 65% 1284-691 (1975) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $56.47 | $75 | +$18.53 | 50% 3337-3291 (6628) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $50.18 | $70.76 | +$20.58 | 49% 3081-3189 (6270) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 72.9¢ | $49.75 | $50 | +$0.25 | 53% 4010-3496 (7506) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 89.8¢ | $66.3 | $53.38 | -$12.93 | 61% 366-233 (599) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 17.1¢ | $91.39 | $27 | -$64.39 | 45% 355-435 (790) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.5¢ | $21.2 | $27 | +$5.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.1¢ | $70.19 | — | -$70.19 | |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 92.2¢ | $42.45 | $39.99 | -$2.46 | 44% 682-863 (1545) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $36.27 | $65.94 | +$29.67 | 53% 297-268 (565) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $26.1 | $30 | +$3.9 | 30% 270-641 (911) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.8¢ | $57.48 | — | -$57.48 | 40% 268-400 (668) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 95.8¢ | $20.51 | $16.09 | -$0.58 | 59% 895-612 (1507) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,018.52
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.49
Record
74%
506-174 (680)
Invested
$1,463.79
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.47
Record
45%
421-510 (931)
Invested
$326.6
Value
$285.12
PnL
-$41.47
Record
52%
3399-3159 (6558)
Invested
$324.19
Value
$272.25
PnL
-$51.94
Record
51%
863-824 (1687)
Invested
$224.35
Value
$193.39
PnL
-$30.96
Record
54%
3586-3008 (6594)
Both legs:
Invested
$269.25
Value
$254.69
PnL
+$27.19
Record
60%
374-250 (624)
Invested
$237.17
Value
$495.36
PnL
+$258.19
Record
45%
665-826 (1491)
Invested
$181.96
Value
$220.92
PnL
+$38.96
Record
49%
333-350 (683)
Invested
$252.67
Value
$196.04
PnL
-$56.62
Record
41%
253-371 (624)
Invested
$190.78
Value
$182.23
PnL
-$8.55
Record
23%
299-1014 (1313)
Invested
$131.27
Value
$269.32
PnL
+$138.05
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$107.15
Value
$112.06
PnL
+$4.91
Record
52%
800-726 (1526)
Invested
$110.33
Value
$114.6
PnL
+$4.39
Record
62%
1469-913 (2382)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$27.08
Value
—
PnL
-$27.08
Record
38%
427-698 (1125)
Invested
$77.13
Value
$72.25
PnL
-$4.88
Record
65%
1284-691 (1975)
Invested
$56.47
Value
$75
PnL
+$18.53
Record
50%
3337-3291 (6628)
Invested
$50.18
Value
$70.76
PnL
+$20.58
Record
49%
3081-3189 (6270)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$49.75
Value
$50
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
4010-3496 (7506)
Invested
$66.3
Value
$53.38
PnL
-$12.93
Record
61%
366-233 (599)
Invested
$91.39
Value
$27
PnL
-$64.39
Record
45%
355-435 (790)
Both legs:
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$42.45
Value
$39.99
PnL
-$2.46
Record
44%
682-863 (1545)
Invested
$36.27
Value
$65.94
PnL
+$29.67
Record
53%
297-268 (565)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$26.1
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.9
Record
30%
270-641 (911)
Invested
$57.48
Value
—
PnL
-$57.48
Record
40%
268-400 (668)
Invested
$20.51
Value
$16.09
PnL
-$0.58
Record
59%
895-612 (1507)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
0x50f7
Down — $1.5K
blue.birds
Down — $285.12
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $272.25
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Down — $254.69
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $495.36
wzbbb
Down — $220.92
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $196.04
ply-pm0
Down — $182.23