Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Up 81%
1 arb excluded
$6.6K
$395.09
Smart Money Signal
26 of 32 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 93.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$53.33 | 60% 374-250 (624) |
AL almach | Upavg 91.7¢ | $773.64 | $805.88 | +$32.24 | 44% 435-558 (993) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 89.7¢ | $721.36 | $794.06 | +$72.69 | 38% 427-698 (1125) |
BO bosona | Upavg 89.1¢ | $539.43 | $566.01 | +$26.58 | 50% 3667-3701 (7368) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 89¢ | $447.26 | $500 | +$52.74 | 44% 441-571 (1012) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 72.1¢ | $377.99 | $389.3 | +$11.31 | 54% 3586-3008 (6594) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 89¢ | $333.89 | $351.24 | +$17.35 | 52% 800-726 (1526) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 84.1¢ | $280.29 | $277.53 | -$2.76 | 23% 299-1014 (1313) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 77.1¢ | $270.65 | $214.92 | -$55.73 | 45% 355-435 (790) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.1¢ | $165.7 | $214.92 | +$49.22 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 14.7¢ | $104.95 | — | -$104.95 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 88.4¢ | $231.48 | $231.91 | +$0.43 | 51% 863-824 (1687) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 77.7¢ | $200.6 | $185 | +$33.4 | 52% 3399-3159 (6558) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 66.8¢ | $79.16 | $109.91 | +$30.75 | 52% 290-265 (555) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 96.7¢ | $106.01 | $101.07 | -$4.94 | 53% 297-268 (565) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Upavg 84.5¢ | $83.08 | $73.61 | -$9.48 | 41% 253-371 (624) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50¢ | $74.5 | $149 | +$74.5 | 45% 665-826 (1491) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 81.3¢ | $55.86 | $68.69 | +$12.83 | 65% 1284-691 (1975) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $40.1 | $60 | +$19.9 | 53% 4010-3496 (7506) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $46.1 | $40 | -$6.1 | 61% 366-233 (599) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $35.2 | $40 | +$4.8 | 51% 119-113 (232) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $22.83 | $22 | -$0.83 | 47% 209-239 (448) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $13.88 | $19.01 | +$5.13 | 50% 3337-3291 (6628) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 97.6¢ | $15.78 | $16.16 | +$0.38 | 59% 895-612 (1507) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $13.48 | $12.3 | -$1.18 | 34% 353-679 (1032) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $10.35 | $15 | +$4.65 | 44% 682-863 (1545) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $17.64 | — | -$17.64 | 40% 268-400 (668) |
Invested
$1,459.94
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$53.33
Record
60%
374-250 (624)
Invested
$773.64
Value
$805.88
PnL
+$32.24
Record
44%
435-558 (993)
machinelearnedInvested
$721.36
Value
$794.06
PnL
+$72.69
Record
38%
427-698 (1125)
Invested
$539.43
Value
$566.01
PnL
+$26.58
Record
50%
3667-3701 (7368)
Invested
$447.26
Value
$500
PnL
+$52.74
Record
44%
441-571 (1012)
Invested
$377.99
Value
$389.3
PnL
+$11.31
Record
54%
3586-3008 (6594)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$333.89
Value
$351.24
PnL
+$17.35
Record
52%
800-726 (1526)
Invested
$280.29
Value
$277.53
PnL
-$2.76
Record
23%
299-1014 (1313)
Invested
$270.65
Value
$214.92
PnL
-$55.73
Record
45%
355-435 (790)
Both legs:
Invested
$231.48
Value
$231.91
PnL
+$0.43
Record
51%
863-824 (1687)
Invested
$200.6
Value
$185
PnL
+$33.4
Record
52%
3399-3159 (6558)
Invested
$79.16
Value
$109.91
PnL
+$30.75
Record
52%
290-265 (555)
Invested
$106.01
Value
$101.07
PnL
-$4.94
Record
53%
297-268 (565)
Invested
$83.08
Value
$73.61
PnL
-$9.48
Record
41%
253-371 (624)
Invested
$74.5
Value
$149
PnL
+$74.5
Record
45%
665-826 (1491)
Invested
$55.86
Value
$68.69
PnL
+$12.83
Record
65%
1284-691 (1975)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$40.1
Value
$60
PnL
+$19.9
Record
53%
4010-3496 (7506)
Invested
$46.1
Value
$40
PnL
-$6.1
Record
61%
366-233 (599)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$40
PnL
+$4.8
Record
51%
119-113 (232)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$22.83
Value
$22
PnL
-$0.83
Record
47%
209-239 (448)
Invested
$13.88
Value
$19.01
PnL
+$5.13
Record
50%
3337-3291 (6628)
Invested
$15.78
Value
$16.16
PnL
+$0.38
Record
59%
895-612 (1507)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$13.48
Value
$12.3
PnL
-$1.18
Record
34%
353-679 (1032)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$10.35
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.65
Record
44%
682-863 (1545)
Invested
$17.64
Value
—
PnL
-$17.64
Record
40%
268-400 (668)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $1.5K
almach
Up — $805.88
machinelearned
Up — $794.06
bosona
Up — $566.01
mo-money
Up — $500
stepahead
Up — $389.3
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $351.24
ply-pm0
Up — $277.53
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $231.91