Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
30
Up 43%
2 arb excluded
$2.0K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 30 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birds | Downavg 71¢ | $386.77 | $366.25 | -$20.52 | 52% 3399-3159 (6558) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 49.2¢ | $508.16 | — | -$499.91 | 60% 374-250 (624) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 50.2¢ | $333.63 | — | -$333.63 | 54% 3586-3008 (6594) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 66.7¢ | $211.38 | $284.69 | +$73.31 | 61% 366-233 (599) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 36.6¢ | $250.68 | — | -$250.68 | 41% 253-371 (624) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 44.6¢ | $201.18 | — | -$201.18 | 23% 299-1014 (1313) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 22.1¢ | $201.04 | — | -$201.04 | 45% 355-435 (790) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 61¢ | $153.03 | $168.91 | +$35.31 | 49% 333-350 (683) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 44.4¢ | $139.07 | $139.52 | +$20.82 | 51% 863-824 (1687) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 74.1¢ | $145.24 | $153.76 | +$8.52 | 49% 3081-3189 (6270) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 65.7¢ | $85.36 | $130 | +$44.64 | 30% 270-641 (911) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 58.3¢ | $129.29 | $116.49 | -$12.8 | 40% 268-400 (668) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.3¢ | $67.95 | $116.49 | +$48.54 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.7¢ | $61.34 | — | -$61.34 | |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 51.3¢ | $53.38 | $103.97 | +$50.59 | 39% 512-817 (1329) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 77.4¢ | $70.83 | $91.51 | +$20.68 | 65% 1284-691 (1975) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $75.59 | $77 | +$1.41 | 47% 209-239 (448) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54¢ | $41.14 | — | -$41.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.7¢ | $34.44 | $77 | +$42.56 | |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 69.9¢ | $52.51 | $75.12 | +$22.62 | 38% 427-698 (1125) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 57.4¢ | $37.55 | $65.4 | +$27.85 | 62% 1469-913 (2382) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $85.35 | $65 | -$20.35 | 53% 4010-3496 (7506) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $47.15 | $50.16 | +$3.01 | 50% 3337-3291 (6628) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.8¢ | $44.98 | — | -$44.98 | 48% 697-745 (1442) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $23.44 | $53.27 | +$29.83 | 52% 290-265 (555) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.8¢ | $19.52 | — | -$19.52 | 44% 682-863 (1545) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 97.3¢ | $18.67 | $19.2 | +$0.53 | 59% 895-612 (1507) |
D9 0xd949...d595<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $13.53 | $27.05 | +$13.53 | 52% 13-12 (25) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 55.2¢ | $24.67 | — | -$24.67 | 34% 353-679 (1032) |
Invested
$386.77
Value
$366.25
PnL
-$20.52
Record
52%
3399-3159 (6558)
Invested
$508.16
Value
—
PnL
-$499.91
Record
60%
374-250 (624)
Invested
$333.63
Value
—
PnL
-$333.63
Record
54%
3586-3008 (6594)
Invested
$211.38
Value
$284.69
PnL
+$73.31
Record
61%
366-233 (599)
Invested
$250.68
Value
—
PnL
-$250.68
Record
41%
253-371 (624)
Invested
$201.18
Value
—
PnL
-$201.18
Record
23%
299-1014 (1313)
Invested
$201.04
Value
—
PnL
-$201.04
Record
45%
355-435 (790)
Invested
$153.03
Value
$168.91
PnL
+$35.31
Record
49%
333-350 (683)
Invested
$139.07
Value
$139.52
PnL
+$20.82
Record
51%
863-824 (1687)
Invested
$145.24
Value
$153.76
PnL
+$8.52
Record
49%
3081-3189 (6270)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$85.36
Value
$130
PnL
+$44.64
Record
30%
270-641 (911)
Invested
$129.29
Value
$116.49
PnL
-$12.8
Record
40%
268-400 (668)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.38
Value
$103.97
PnL
+$50.59
Record
39%
512-817 (1329)
Invested
$70.83
Value
$91.51
PnL
+$20.68
Record
65%
1284-691 (1975)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$75.59
Value
$77
PnL
+$1.41
Record
47%
209-239 (448)
Both legs:
machinelearned<$100Invested
$52.51
Value
$75.12
PnL
+$22.62
Record
38%
427-698 (1125)
Invested
$37.55
Value
$65.4
PnL
+$27.85
Record
62%
1469-913 (2382)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$85.35
Value
$65
PnL
-$20.35
Record
53%
4010-3496 (7506)
Invested
$47.15
Value
$50.16
PnL
+$3.01
Record
50%
3337-3291 (6628)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$44.98
Value
—
PnL
-$44.98
Record
48%
697-745 (1442)
Invested
$23.44
Value
$53.27
PnL
+$29.83
Record
52%
290-265 (555)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$19.52
Value
—
PnL
-$19.52
Record
44%
682-863 (1545)
Invested
$18.67
Value
$19.2
PnL
+$0.53
Record
59%
895-612 (1507)
Invested
$13.53
Value
$27.05
PnL
+$13.53
Record
52%
13-12 (25)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$24.67
Value
—
PnL
-$24.67
Record
34%
353-679 (1032)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
blue.birds
Down — $366.25
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $284.69
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
Down — $168.91
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $139.52
asdcaxz
Down — $153.76