Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 90% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 90%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$352.29

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 31 top traders (90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down28 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,343

Combined PnL+$430.14

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares559

Combined PnL-$77.85

Down — 90%Up — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 74.7¢	$667.12	$692.44	+$28.52	60% 374-250 (624)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 68.5¢	$414.39	$390.72	-$23.67	51% 863-824 (1687)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 72.9¢	$273.14	$292.13	+$19	41% 253-371 (624)
ST stepahead	Downavg 56.7¢	$186.13	$179.89	-$6.24	54% 3586-3008 (6594)
BoneOhioARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$144.72	$149.99	+$5.27	74% 506-174 (680)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$86.99	$149.99	+$62.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$57.73	—	-$57.73
OhioAI	Downavg 64.6¢	$125.18	$142.63	+$20.83	47% 209-239 (448)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 66.3¢	$116.95	$132.63	+$15.68	52% 3399-3159 (6558)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48.4¢	$99.49	$186.63	+$87.14	45% 665-826 (1491)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 52.1¢	$78.55	$111.01	+$32.47	53% 297-268 (565)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 85.8¢	$112.53	$104.87	-$7.66	52% 800-726 (1526)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 68.7¢	$78.35	$114.12	+$35.77	61% 366-233 (599)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86¢	$86.72	$89.07	+$3.57	65% 1284-691 (1975)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 70¢	$67.06	$89.09	+$22.03	49% 333-350 (683)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 59.1¢	$87.73	$84.62	-$3.11	23% 299-1014 (1313)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 49¢	$77.84	$158.86	+$81.02	48% 969-1052 (2021)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 38.9¢	$131.2	$39.17	-$92.04	40% 268-400 (668)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.9¢	$100.84	—	-$100.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.5¢	$30.37	$39.17	+$8.8
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$59.57	$98.52	+$38.95	50% 3337-3291 (6628)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$58.01	$65.23	+$8.16	62% 1469-913 (2382)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 51¢	$50.52	$55.26	+$4.74	52% 290-265 (555)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 60.9¢	$47.81	$54.21	+$6.4	44% 682-863 (1545)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 67¢	$35	$50	+$15	49% 3081-3189 (6270)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 62¢	$49.3	$40	-$9.3	30% 270-641 (911)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$36.21	$45.78	+$9.57	39% 512-817 (1329)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 61.6¢	$35.04	$44.57	+$9.53	48% 697-745 (1442)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$17.49	$30.52	+$13.03	53% 4010-3496 (7506)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$667.12

Value

$692.44

PnL

+$28.52

Record

60%

374-250 (624)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$414.39

Value

$390.72

PnL

-$23.67

Record

51%

863-824 (1687)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$273.14

Value

$292.13

PnL

+$19

Record

41%

253-371 (624)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$186.13

Value

$179.89

PnL

-$6.24

Record

54%

3586-3008 (6594)

BoneOhioARB<$100

Down

Invested

$144.72

Value

$149.99

PnL

+$5.27

Record

74%

506-174 (680)

Both legs:

Invested

$125.18

Value

$142.63

PnL

+$20.83

Record

47%

209-239 (448)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$116.95

Value

$132.63

PnL

+$15.68

Record

52%

3399-3159 (6558)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$99.49

Value

$186.63

PnL

+$87.14

Record

45%

665-826 (1491)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$78.55

Value

$111.01

PnL

+$32.47

Record

53%

297-268 (565)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$112.53

Value

$104.87

PnL

-$7.66

Record

52%

800-726 (1526)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$78.35

Value

$114.12

PnL

+$35.77

Record

61%

366-233 (599)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$86.72

Value

$89.07

PnL

+$3.57

Record

65%

1284-691 (1975)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$67.06

Value

$89.09

PnL

+$22.03

Record

49%

333-350 (683)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$87.73

Value

$84.62

PnL

-$3.11

Record

23%

299-1014 (1313)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$77.84

Value

$158.86

PnL

+$81.02

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$131.2

Value

$39.17

PnL

-$92.04

Record

40%

268-400 (668)

Both legs:

Up$100.8438.9¢-$100.84

Down$30.3777.5¢+$8.8

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$59.57

Value

$98.52

PnL

+$38.95

Record

50%

3337-3291 (6628)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$58.01

Value

$65.23

PnL

+$8.16

Record

62%

1469-913 (2382)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$50.52

Value

$55.26

PnL

+$4.74

Record

52%

290-265 (555)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$47.81

Value

$54.21

PnL

+$6.4

Record

44%

682-863 (1545)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$35

Value

$50

PnL

+$15

Record

49%

3081-3189 (6270)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$49.3

Value

$40

PnL

-$9.3

Record

30%

270-641 (911)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$36.21

Value

$45.78

PnL

+$9.57

Record

39%

512-817 (1329)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$35.04

Value

$44.57

PnL

+$9.53

Record

48%

697-745 (1442)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$17.49

Value

$30.52

PnL

+$13.03

Record

53%

4010-3496 (7506)

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 31 top traders (90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa97a1d23...cbadb6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794368400

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $692.44

+$28.52

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $390.72

-$23.67

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $292.13

+$19

stepahead

Down — $179.89

-$6.24

BoneOhio

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.27

OhioAI

Down — $142.63

+$20.83

blue.birds

Down — $132.63

+$15.68

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $186.63

+$87.14

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down — $111.01

+$32.47

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $104.87

-$7.66

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