Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Up 65%
4 arb excluded
$5.0K
-$72.28
Smart Money Signal
17 of 26 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 85.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$78.25 | 59% 326-224 (550) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 81.8¢ | $884.93 | $880.84 | +$39.97 | 52% 3288-3043 (6331) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 73.8¢ | $679.47 | $706.17 | +$26.7 | 54% 3536-2962 (6498) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 78.5¢ | $491.83 | $447.17 | -$44.66 | 46% 320-374 (694) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78.5¢ | $350.96 | $447.17 | +$96.21 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.2¢ | $140.87 | — | -$140.87 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 78.1¢ | $366.5 | $258.1 | -$64.6 | 42% 230-322 (552) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 77¢ | $196.63 | $203 | +$9.05 | 47% 177-201 (378) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 86¢ | $160.26 | $173.25 | +$12.99 | 53% 728-635 (1363) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 76.3¢ | $142.52 | $122.21 | -$20.3 | 47% 290-324 (614) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.3¢ | $93.2 | $122.21 | +$29.01 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.8¢ | $49.32 | — | -$49.32 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 73¢ | $156 | $147.69 | -$8.32 | 39% 233-363 (596) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 86.1¢ | $147.85 | $169.77 | +$21.92 | 36% 371-646 (1017) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 73.9¢ | $92.71 | $76.78 | -$15.93 | 22% 270-973 (1243) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20.6¢ | $36 | — | -$36 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.9¢ | $56.71 | $76.78 | +$20.07 | |
BO bosona | Upavg 75¢ | $80.18 | $106.9 | +$26.73 | 50% 3604-3646 (7250) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $50.83 | — | -$50.83 | 53% 261-236 (497) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 72.1¢ | $62.34 | $50.99 | -$11.35 | 48% 607-654 (1261) |
PA PapeasyARB<$100 | Upavg 79.8¢ | $43.42 | $44.05 | +$0.63 | 50% 3298-3262 (6560) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.8¢ | $35.17 | $44.05 | +$8.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 11¢ | $8.25 | — | -$8.25 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 76.2¢ | $54.07 | $50.81 | -$3.26 | 61% 1274-816 (2090) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $53.77 | $68.06 | +$14.29 | 42% 378-516 (894) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Downavg 27.4¢ | $63.05 | — | -$63.05 | 51% 259-244 (503) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 86.3¢ | $32.15 | $35.81 | +$3.66 | 65% 1142-605 (1747) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 18.2¢ | $44.27 | — | -$39.87 | 53% 3975-3465 (7440) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $18.01 | $17 | -$1.01 | 59% 788-556 (1344) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $13.35 | $16.28 | +$2.93 | 13% 103-691 (794) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 34.5¢ | $14.4 | — | -$14.4 | 57% 4135-3098 (7233) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $11.4 | $15 | +$3.6 | 44% 594-770 (1364) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $7.75 | — | -$7.75 | 28% 238-607 (845) |
Invested
$1,296.33
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$78.25
Record
59%
326-224 (550)
Invested
$884.93
Value
$880.84
PnL
+$39.97
Record
52%
3288-3043 (6331)
Invested
$679.47
Value
$706.17
PnL
+$26.7
Record
54%
3536-2962 (6498)
Invested
$491.83
Value
$447.17
PnL
-$44.66
Record
46%
320-374 (694)
Both legs:
Invested
$366.5
Value
$258.1
PnL
-$64.6
Record
42%
230-322 (552)
OhioAIInvested
$196.63
Value
$203
PnL
+$9.05
Record
47%
177-201 (378)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$160.26
Value
$173.25
PnL
+$12.99
Record
53%
728-635 (1363)
Invested
$142.52
Value
$122.21
PnL
-$20.3
Record
47%
290-324 (614)
Both legs:
Invested
$156
Value
$147.69
PnL
-$8.32
Record
39%
233-363 (596)
machinelearnedInvested
$147.85
Value
$169.77
PnL
+$21.92
Record
36%
371-646 (1017)
Invested
$92.71
Value
$76.78
PnL
-$15.93
Record
22%
270-973 (1243)
Both legs:
Invested
$80.18
Value
$106.9
PnL
+$26.73
Record
50%
3604-3646 (7250)
Invested
$50.83
Value
—
PnL
-$50.83
Record
53%
261-236 (497)
ohioism<$100Invested
$62.34
Value
$50.99
PnL
-$11.35
Record
48%
607-654 (1261)
Invested
$43.42
Value
$44.05
PnL
+$0.63
Record
50%
3298-3262 (6560)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.07
Value
$50.81
PnL
-$3.26
Record
61%
1274-816 (2090)
Invested
$53.77
Value
$68.06
PnL
+$14.29
Record
42%
378-516 (894)
Invested
$63.05
Value
—
PnL
-$63.05
Record
51%
259-244 (503)
Invested
$32.15
Value
$35.81
PnL
+$3.66
Record
65%
1142-605 (1747)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$44.27
Value
—
PnL
-$39.87
Record
53%
3975-3465 (7440)
Invested
$18.01
Value
$17
PnL
-$1.01
Record
59%
788-556 (1344)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$13.35
Value
$16.28
PnL
+$2.93
Record
13%
103-691 (794)
Invested
$14.4
Value
—
PnL
-$14.4
Record
57%
4135-3098 (7233)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.4
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.6
Record
44%
594-770 (1364)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100Invested
$7.75
Value
—
PnL
-$7.75
Record
28%
238-607 (845)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $1.4K
blue.birds
Up — $880.84
stepahead
Up — $706.17
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $258.1
OhioAI
Up — $203
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $173.25
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
Up — $147.69
machinelearned
Up — $169.77