Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Up 75%
1 arb excluded
$10.5K
-$20.3
Smart Money Signal
25 of 33 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | +$5.44 | 45% 344-425 (769) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 63.4¢ | $522.7 | $715.04 | +$192.34 | 59% 308-215 (523) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 89.6¢ | $530.99 | $525.09 | -$5.91 | 52% 3251-3011 (6262) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 77.2¢ | $470.55 | $518.37 | +$47.83 | 47% 311-350 (661) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 83.4¢ | $470.53 | $492.68 | +$22.15 | 53% 760-675 (1435) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 82.7¢ | $374.29 | $358.17 | -$16.12 | 42% 220-307 (527) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 75.5¢ | $324.92 | $334.46 | +$9.54 | 54% 3519-2946 (6465) |
BO bosona | Upavg 79.1¢ | $300.53 | $379.87 | +$79.34 | 50% 3587-3631 (7218) |
AL almach | Upavg 75.7¢ | $285.9 | $377.7 | +$91.8 | 42% 356-488 (844) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 86.3¢ | $242.75 | $210.47 | -$32.28 | 53% 693-611 (1304) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 73.3¢ | $124.97 | $170.49 | +$45.52 | 41% 355-504 (859) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 90.3¢ | $170.78 | $140.1 | -$30.68 | 39% 225-346 (571) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 63.9¢ | $90.82 | $142.17 | +$51.35 | 47% 276-315 (591) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 13.4¢ | $266.65 | $77.97 | -$188.69 | 36% 354-629 (983) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79¢ | $61.59 | $77.97 | +$16.37 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 13.4¢ | $205.06 | — | -$205.06 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 86.9¢ | $127.5 | $98.15 | -$29.36 | 52% 250-231 (481) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 89.4¢ | $119.25 | $103.01 | +$5.06 | 61% 1214-784 (1998) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 87.2¢ | $86.65 | $85.81 | -$0.84 | 65% 1091-580 (1671) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $86.5 | — | -$86.5 | 43% 567-743 (1310) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $73.9 | $80 | +$6.1 | 53% 3968-3449 (7417) |
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100 | Downavg 19.9¢ | $80.37 | — | -$80.37 | 22% 265-953 (1218) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 83.4¢ | $63.87 | $59 | +$4.63 | 46% 164-191 (355) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 86.9¢ | $64.29 | $50.47 | -$11.27 | 48% 341-373 (714) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 78.6¢ | $64.01 | $44.27 | -$16.44 | 44% 574-732 (1306) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 69.1¢ | $24.63 | $35.65 | +$11.02 | 38% 432-691 (1123) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Upavg 79.4¢ | $22.03 | $27.73 | +$5.7 | 53% 252-221 (473) |
Invested
$5,430.86
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$5.44
Record
45%
344-425 (769)
Invested
$522.7
Value
$715.04
PnL
+$192.34
Record
59%
308-215 (523)
Invested
$530.99
Value
$525.09
PnL
-$5.91
Record
52%
3251-3011 (6262)
Invested
$470.55
Value
$518.37
PnL
+$47.83
Record
47%
311-350 (661)
Invested
$470.53
Value
$492.68
PnL
+$22.15
Record
53%
760-675 (1435)
Invested
$374.29
Value
$358.17
PnL
-$16.12
Record
42%
220-307 (527)
Invested
$324.92
Value
$334.46
PnL
+$9.54
Record
54%
3519-2946 (6465)
Invested
$300.53
Value
$379.87
PnL
+$79.34
Record
50%
3587-3631 (7218)
Invested
$285.9
Value
$377.7
PnL
+$91.8
Record
42%
356-488 (844)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$242.75
Value
$210.47
PnL
-$32.28
Record
53%
693-611 (1304)
Invested
$124.97
Value
$170.49
PnL
+$45.52
Record
41%
355-504 (859)
Invested
$170.78
Value
$140.1
PnL
-$30.68
Record
39%
225-346 (571)
Invested
$90.82
Value
$142.17
PnL
+$51.35
Record
47%
276-315 (591)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$266.65
Value
$77.97
PnL
-$188.69
Record
36%
354-629 (983)
Both legs:
Invested
$127.5
Value
$98.15
PnL
-$29.36
Record
52%
250-231 (481)
Invested
$119.25
Value
$103.01
PnL
+$5.06
Record
61%
1214-784 (1998)
Invested
$86.65
Value
$85.81
PnL
-$0.84
Record
65%
1091-580 (1671)
Invested
$86.5
Value
—
PnL
-$86.5
Record
43%
567-743 (1310)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$73.9
Value
$80
PnL
+$6.1
Record
53%
3968-3449 (7417)
Invested
$80.37
Value
—
PnL
-$80.37
Record
22%
265-953 (1218)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$63.87
Value
$59
PnL
+$4.63
Record
46%
164-191 (355)
Invested
$64.29
Value
$50.47
PnL
-$11.27
Record
48%
341-373 (714)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$64.01
Value
$44.27
PnL
-$16.44
Record
44%
574-732 (1306)
Invested
$24.63
Value
$35.65
PnL
+$11.02
Record
38%
432-691 (1123)
Invested
$22.03
Value
$27.73
PnL
+$5.7
Record
53%
252-221 (473)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $5.4K
Bonereaper
Up — $715.04
blue.birds
Up — $525.09
CrouchPredictions
Up — $518.37
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $492.68
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $358.17
stepahead
Up — $334.46
bosona
Up — $379.87
almach
Up — $377.7
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $210.47