Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Up 79%
2 arb excluded
$10.2K
$63.9
Smart Money Signal
23 of 29 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 90.1¢ | $2.8K | $3.0K | +$219.34 | 59% 308-215 (523) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$20.02 | 76% 426-136 (562) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.67 | 98% 1174-26 (1200) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 89.4¢ | $864.9 | $825.25 | -$39.66 | 36% 354-629 (983) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $701.03 | $701.73 | +$0.7 | 45% 344-425 (769) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 59.5¢ | $356.53 | $387.14 | +$35.21 | 52% 3251-3011 (6262) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 50.8¢ | $296.84 | $360.85 | +$64 | 42% 220-307 (527) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 34.9¢ | $329.7 | $169 | -$160.7 | 53% 252-221 (473) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48¢ | $81.12 | $169 | +$87.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.9¢ | $248.58 | — | -$248.58 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 66.8¢ | $193.58 | $180.66 | -$12.92 | 22% 265-953 (1218) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 40.5¢ | $215.83 | $86.38 | -$129.46 | 47% 311-350 (661) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.5¢ | $181.87 | — | -$181.87 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.3¢ | $33.97 | $86.38 | +$52.41 | |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 30.4¢ | $154.95 | — | -$154.95 | 54% 3519-2946 (6465) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 56.3¢ | $125.32 | $149.27 | +$23.95 | 39% 225-346 (571) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 99¢ | $131.4 | $131.3 | -$0.1 | 35% 277-519 (796) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 99¢ | $129.69 | $131 | +$1.31 | 37% 296-504 (800) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 71.7¢ | $122.57 | $106.44 | -$16.13 | 53% 693-611 (1304) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 18¢ | $117.15 | — | -$111.48 | 53% 760-675 (1435) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $86.47 | $179.45 | +$92.98 | 43% 567-743 (1310) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $78.11 | $83.85 | +$5.74 | 47% 276-315 (591) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $64.18 | $71.98 | +$9.38 | 65% 1091-580 (1671) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Downavg 28.8¢ | $46.47 | — | -$46.47 | 52% 250-231 (481) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $45.74 | — | -$45.74 | 50% 3288-3249 (6537) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $34.4 | $36.31 | +$1.91 | 50% 3587-3631 (7218) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $34.61 | — | -$34.61 | 38% 432-691 (1123) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 47.3¢ | $11.4 | $24.11 | +$12.71 | 49% 2927-3042 (5969) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 47.1¢ | $21.5 | $39.99 | +$18.49 | 61% 1214-784 (1998) |
Invested
$2,752.92
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$219.34
Record
59%
308-215 (523)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,982.02
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$20.02
Record
76%
426-136 (562)
Invested
$1,452.33
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.67
Record
98%
1174-26 (1200)
machinelearnedInvested
$864.9
Value
$825.25
PnL
-$39.66
Record
36%
354-629 (983)
Invested
$701.03
Value
$701.73
PnL
+$0.7
Record
45%
344-425 (769)
Invested
$356.53
Value
$387.14
PnL
+$35.21
Record
52%
3251-3011 (6262)
Invested
$296.84
Value
$360.85
PnL
+$64
Record
42%
220-307 (527)
Invested
$329.7
Value
$169
PnL
-$160.7
Record
53%
252-221 (473)
Both legs:
Invested
$193.58
Value
$180.66
PnL
-$12.92
Record
22%
265-953 (1218)
Invested
$215.83
Value
$86.38
PnL
-$129.46
Record
47%
311-350 (661)
Both legs:
Invested
$154.95
Value
—
PnL
-$154.95
Record
54%
3519-2946 (6465)
Invested
$125.32
Value
$149.27
PnL
+$23.95
Record
39%
225-346 (571)
pspspsps5Invested
$131.4
Value
$131.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
35%
277-519 (796)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$129.69
Value
$131
PnL
+$1.31
Record
37%
296-504 (800)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$122.57
Value
$106.44
PnL
-$16.13
Record
53%
693-611 (1304)
Invested
$117.15
Value
—
PnL
-$111.48
Record
53%
760-675 (1435)
Invested
$86.47
Value
$179.45
PnL
+$92.98
Record
43%
567-743 (1310)
Invested
$78.11
Value
$83.85
PnL
+$5.74
Record
47%
276-315 (591)
Invested
$64.18
Value
$71.98
PnL
+$9.38
Record
65%
1091-580 (1671)
Invested
$46.47
Value
—
PnL
-$46.47
Record
52%
250-231 (481)
Invested
$45.74
Value
—
PnL
-$45.74
Record
50%
3288-3249 (6537)
Invested
$34.4
Value
$36.31
PnL
+$1.91
Record
50%
3587-3631 (7218)
Invested
$34.61
Value
—
PnL
-$34.61
Record
38%
432-691 (1123)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$24.11
PnL
+$12.71
Record
49%
2927-3042 (5969)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$39.99
PnL
+$18.49
Record
61%
1214-784 (1998)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $3.0K
BoneOhio
Up — $2.0K
hoodquant
Up — $1.5K
machinelearned
Up — $825.25
0x50f7
Up — $701.73
blue.birds
Up — $387.14
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $360.85
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $180.66
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded