Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$-28.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 41 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down29 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares35,876

Combined PnL$-28.9K

Up12 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,168

Combined PnL+$397.47

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 42.5¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K	47% 297-333 (630)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 80.9¢	$2.8K	—	$-2.8K	50% 3566-3609 (7175)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$1.6K	$2.5K	+$920.5	11% 88-680 (768)
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.1¢	$545.07	$2.5K	+$1.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.6¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 41.1¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	21% 248-946 (1194)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$289.75	98% 1113-24 (1137)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 80.8¢	$2.3K	—	$-2.3K	43% 341-461 (802)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 79.5¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$100.27	42% 340-478 (818)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.8¢	$402.28	$1.4K	+$994.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.5¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 60.6¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.2K	53% 662-577 (1239)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.65	76% 403-129 (532)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 67.3¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	59% 292-207 (499)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 67.5¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	52% 3206-2981 (6187)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 69.6¢	$913.35	—	-$913.35	42% 213-290 (503)
ST stepaheadCTR	Downavg 75.8¢	$916.77	—	-$916.77	54% 3503-2930 (6433)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 49.5¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	43% 533-713 (1246)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 72.1¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	35% 335-614 (949)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR	Downavg 60.3¢	$544.59	—	-$544.59	53% 238-213 (451)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR	Downavg 67.8¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	53% 243-215 (458)
NIULAI4	Upavg 70.6¢	$586.81	$499.14	-$87.67	10% 97-863 (960)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 65.2¢	$495.21	—	-$495.21	39% 213-334 (547)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 78¢	$415.95	—	-$415.95	45% 257-310 (567)
PB PBot-5	Upavg 31.2¢	$145.51	$337.55	+$260.14	47% 319-357 (676)
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 48.3¢	$318.8	—	-$273.78	48% 859-937 (1796)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 75¢	$817.98	—	-$805.89	49% 562-580 (1142)
OhioAI	Upavg 37.8¢	$210.01	$239.76	+$107.91	46% 154-183 (337)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 53.1¢	$171.77	$216.71	+$44.95	27% 218-590 (808)